中国东部夏季极端降水事件及大气环流异常分析

武文博; 游庆龙; 王岱; 阮能

doi:10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2017.16204

中国东部夏季极端降水事件及大气环流异常分析

doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2017.16204

武文博^{1, 2,},
游庆龙^1, ,,
王岱¹,
阮能¹

1.
南京信息工程大学气象灾害教育部重点实验室/气候与环境变化国际合作联合实验室/气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心, 南京 210044
2.
河南省气象台, 郑州 450003

基金项目:

国家重点研发计划项目 2016YFA0601700

江苏省杰出自然科学基金项目 BK20140047

江苏省高校自然科学研究面上项目 BBB

江苏高校优势学科建设工程资助项目 PAPD

详细信息

作者简介:
武文博, 女, 1992年出生, 硕士研究生, 主要从事极端降水的研究。E-mail:wubosunny@126.com

通讯作者:
游庆龙, E-mail:qinglong.you@nuist.edu.cn

中图分类号: P426.6
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- 被引次数: 0
出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2016-11-17
- 网络出版日期: 2017-06-23
- 刊出日期: 2018-01-20

Characteristics of Extreme Precipitation and Associated Anomalous Circulations over Eastern China during Boreal Summer

Wenbo WU^{1, 2
,},
Qinglong YOU^{1
, ,},
Dai WANG¹,
Neng RUAN¹

1.
Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster, Ministry of Education/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters; Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044
2.
Henan Meteorological Observatory, Zhengzhou 450003

Funds:

National Key Research and Development Program of China 2016YFA0601700

Jiangsu Natural Science Funds for Distinguished Young Scholar BK20140047

Natural Science Research of Jiangsu Higher Education Institutions (Genernal Program) BBB

the Priority Academic Program Development of Jiangsu Higher Education Institutions PAPD

摘要

摘要: 主要利用1961~2014年中国东部地区438个台站的逐日降水资料和NCEP/NCAR的再分析资料，从大气内部动力角度对夏季不同极端降水情况下的环境场进行分析，结果表明：对长江中下游地区而言，在极端降水频次偏多年时，850 hPa风场及整层水汽输送距平场均表明东亚夏季风偏弱，有利于更多的水汽输送到长江中下游地区，500 hPa鄂霍次克海阻塞高压持续日数偏多，有利于冷空气南下，200 hPa东亚副热带急流偏南，且30°N以南偏西风异常有利于辐散，而在斜压波包从西北东南向传播为极端降水事件分发生集聚了能量；对华北地区极端降水频次偏多年而言，850 hPa风场及整层的水汽输送距平场均表明东亚夏季风偏强，有利于更多的水汽输送到华北地区，500 hPa高度距平场日本海正距平，贝加尔湖蒙古地区为负距平，华北地区东高西低，200 hPa东亚副热带急流偏北，从而导致我国华北地区极端降水频次偏多，能量传播也为西北东南向。这些结果表明极端降水的变化，与大气内部的动力作用和能量的传播有密切的关系。
- 极端降水事件 /
- 环流异常 /
- 波作用通量
Abstract: Anomalous circulations associated with various extreme precipitation events in summer are investigated from the perspective of atmosphere dynamics using daily precipitation data collected at 438 stations from 1961 to 2014 in eastern China and the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data. The results demonstrate that in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, increases in the frequency of extreme precipitation always correspond to weaker than normal East Asian summer monsoon, which is reflected in abnormal 850-hPa wind field and water vapor flux that are favorable for more water vapor transport to the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River. At 500 hPa, a blocking high persists over the Okhotsk Sea, which is conductive to the cold air moving southward. The East Asian subtropical westerly jet anomalously moves southward at 200 hPa, while the westerly wind anomalies to the south of 30°N promotes divergence development, and the wave activity fluxes are favorable for generating and maintaining wave perturbations in this region. In North China, corresponding to increases in the frequency of extreme precipitation, anomalies of 850-hPa wind field and water vapor flux indicate that the East Asian summer monsoon is stronger than normal, which strengths the water vapor transport to North China. The positive anomaly is located over the Sea of Japan and the negative anomalies are located over Mongolia, Baikal and their vicinity at 500 hPa. East Asian subtropical westerly jet abnormally shifts northward at 200 hPa, while the wave activity fluxes are also favorable for generating and maintaining wave perturbations in this region. All the above results suggest that the occurrence of extreme summer precipitation in East China is closely associated with atmospheric dynamics and energy transmission.
- Extreme precipitation events /
- Anomalous circulation /
- Wave activity flux

HTML全文

图 1 （a）中国东部夏季极端降水事件频次变化趋势；（b）华北地区和（c）长江中下游地区夏季标准化极端降水事件频次时间变化序列

Figure 1. (a) Linear tendency rate of extreme precipitation frequency in East China during summer; the time series of normalized extreme precipitation frequency in (b) North China and (c) middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River

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图 2 1961~2014年夏季长江中下游地区极端降水频次偏多年（偏少年）（a、d）850 hPa风场、（b、e）500 hPa高度场和（c、f）200 hPa纬向风场与气候态差值场（距平场）的分布（红色的点代表通过95%置信水平检验）：（a、b、c）极端降水频次偏多年；（d、e、f）极端降水频次偏少年

Figure 2. (a, d) 850-hPa wind anomalies, (b, e) 500-hPa height anomalies, and (c, f) 200-hPa zonal wind anomalies corresponding to increase (decrease) in the frequency of extreme precipitation over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River in summer: (a, b, c) Years with the frequency of extreme precipitation increased; (d, e, f) years with the frequency of extreme precipitation declined. Red dots represent 95% confidence level

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图 3 1961~2014年夏季中高纬度地区500 hPa高度场阻塞高压频数

Figure 3. The frequency of blocking occurrence at 500-hPa geopotential height field in the middle-high latitudes in summer during1961-2014

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图 4 1961~2014年夏季整层（1000~300 hPa）水汽通量输送（a）流函数（等值线，单位：10⁶ kg s^-1）和非辐散分量（矢量）以及（b）势函数（等值线，单位：10⁶ kg s^-1）和辐散分量（矢量）分布

Figure 4. (a) Distribution of integrated stream function (contour, units: 10⁶ kg s^-1) and the non-divergent component (vector) of water vapor transport, and (b) distribution of integrated potential function (contour, units: 10⁶ kg s^-1) and the divergent component (vector) of water vapor transport in summer during 1961-2014

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图 5 1961~2014年夏季长江中下游极端降水频次偏多年（偏少年）整层（1000~300 hPa）水汽通量输送（a、c）流函数（等值线，单位：10⁶ kg s⁻¹）和非辐散分量（矢量）以及（b、d）势函数（等值线，单位：10⁶ kg s⁻¹）及辐散分量距平分布（图中红框表示长江中下游）：（a、b）极端降水频次偏多年；（c、d）极端降水频次偏少年

Figure 5. (a, c) Anomalous distribution of integrated stream function (contour, units: 10⁶ kg s⁻¹) and the non-divergent component (vector) of water vapor transport, and (b, d) anomalous distribution of integrated potential function (contour, units: 10⁶ kg s⁻¹) and the divergent component (vector) of water vapor transport corresponding to increase (decrease) in the frequency of extreme precipitation during 1961-2014 over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River in summer (the red box indicates the area of the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River): (a, b) Years with the frequency of extreme precipitation increased; (c, d) years with the frequency of extreme precipitation declined

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图 6 1961~2014年夏季长江中下游极端降水频次偏多年（偏少年）对流层中上层（a、c）500 hPa、（b、d）200 hPa扰动流函数（等值线，单位：10⁵m²s）和波作用通量（矢量）：（a、b）极端降水频次偏多年；（c、d）极端降水频次偏少年

Figure 6. Composites of the wave-activity flux (vector) and quasi-geostrophic steam function (contour, units: 10⁵ m²s) at (a, c) 500 hPa and (b, d) 200 hPa corresponding to increase (decrease) in the frequency extreme precipitation during 1961-2014 over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River in summer: (a, b) Years with the frequency of extreme precipitation increased; (c, d) years with the frequency of extreme precipitation declined

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图 7 同图 2，但为夏季华北地区情况

Figure 7. Same as Fig. 2, but in North China

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图 8 同图 5，但为华北地区情况

Figure 8. Same as Fig. 5, but in North China

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图 9 同图 6，但为华北地区情况

Figure 9. Same as Fig. 6, but in North China

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图 10 （a）长江中下游地区和（b）华北地区夏季极端降水异常分析机理示意图

Figure 10. The mechanism of extreme precipitation anomaly analysis in (a) the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and (b) North China

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