华南地区21世纪中后期旱涝变化的情景分析

吴美双; 黎伟标; 许吟隆; 李秀珍; 张敏

doi:10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2017.17018

华南地区21世纪中后期旱涝变化的情景分析

doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2017.17018

1.
国家海洋局南海预报中心, 广州 510000
2.
中山大学大气科学学院, 广州 510275
3.
中国农业科学院农业环境与可持续发展研究所, 北京 100081

基金项目:

国家海洋局南海分局海洋科学技术局长基金 1716

国家自然科学基金面上项目 41675043

国家自然科学基金面上项目 41375050

广东省水利科技创新项目 2016-02

详细信息

作者简介:
吴美双, 1985年出生, 女, 硕士, 助理工程师, 主要从事气候情景分析。E-mail: wumsh2009@qq.com

中图分类号: P467
计量
- 文章访问数: 1161
- HTML全文浏览量: 31
- PDF下载量: 1497
- 被引次数: 0
出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2017-02-13
- 网络出版日期: 2017-07-07
- 刊出日期: 2018-03-20

Scenario Analysis of Drought/Flood Change in the Middle and Late 21st Century in South China

1.
South China Sea Forecast Center, State Oceanic Administration, Guangzhou 510000
2.
School of Atmospheric Sciences, Sun Yai-Sen University, Guangzhou 510275
3.
Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development in Agriculture, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100081

Funds:

Director Foundation for Marine Science and Technology by State Oceanic Administation, South China Sea Branch 1716

National Natural Science Foundation of China 41675043

National Natural Science Foundation of China 41375050

the Water Resource Science and Technology Innovation Program of Guangdong Province 2016-02

摘要

摘要: 利用区域气候模式PRECIS（Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies），首先选取若干旱涝指标，在验证模式对各旱涝指标的模拟能力的基础上，分析SRES A1B（Special Report on Emissions Scenarios A1B）情景下华南地区21世纪中后期（2040~2099年）各旱涝指标相对气候基准时段（1961~1990年）的变化情况，进而初步探讨华南地区未来旱涝情况的可能变化。研究表明，PRECIS能够较好地模拟出所选取的旱涝指标的年际变化和月变化特征；在SRES A1B情景下，21世纪中后期华南地区极端强降水事件的发生频率和强度都将显著增加，且强降水期将有所延长，从而使得华南地区出现雨涝灾害的可能性大大增加。与此同时，华南地区未来在春季、夏季和秋季发生气象干旱的可能性变化不显著，但在冬季发生气象干旱的可能性却将增加，尤其是在21世纪后30年冬季出现气象干旱的可能性更高。
- 华南地区 /
- PRECIS模式 /
- 旱涝变化 /
- 情景分析
Abstract: This paper exploits the regional climate mode PRECIS (Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies) to analyze the changes of the drought and flood indices in South China in the middle and later period of the 21st century under the SRES A1B (Special Report on Emissions Scenarios A1B) scenario compared with the climatic reference period (1961-1990). Plenty of drought and flood indices are utilized first to verify the capacity of PRECIS for drought and flood indices simulation. Possible changes of the future drought and flood conditions in South China are preliminarily discussed. Results indicate that PRECIS can well simulate yearly and monthly changing features of the selected drought and flood indices. Under the SRES A1B scenario, the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation event in South China in the middle and later period of the 21st century will increase dramatically, and the period of precipitation extreme will increase too, thereby the possibility of flood disaster occurrence will grow to a large extent. Meanwhile, possible changes of meteorological drought in spring, summer and autumn in South China is not obvious, but in winter the possibility will rise, especially in the winters of the last thirty years of the 21st century, the possibility will be higher.
- South China area /
- PRECIS model /
- Drought/Flood Change /
- Scenario analysis

HTML全文

图 1 华南地区观测资料格点与PRECIS模式格点分布(+为观测格点，●为模式格点)

Figure 1. Distributions of observation data grids in South China and PRECIS (Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies) model grids (+ refers to observation grid; ● refers to model grid)

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 2 1962~2001年华南地区平均极端降水日数的年际变化曲线：(a)春季；(b)夏季；(c)秋季；(d)冬季

Figure 2. Yearly changing curves of average days of extreme precipitation in South China during 1962-2001: (a) Spring; (b) summer; (c) autumn; (d) winter

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 3 1962~2001年华南地区平均最大连续5 d降水量的年际变化曲线：(a)春季；(b)夏季；(c)秋季；(d)冬季

Figure 3. Yearly changing curves of average maximum precipitation in five consecutive days in South China during 1962-2001: (a) Spring; (b) summer; (c) autumn; (d) winter

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 4 1962~2001年华南地区平均最大连续干日数的年际变化曲线：(a)春季；(b)夏季；(c)秋季；(d)冬季

Figure 4. Yearly changing curves of average maximum number of consecutive drought days in South China during 1962-2001: (a) Spring; (b) summer; (c) autumn; (d) winter

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 5 1962~2001年华南地区平均极端降水日数的月变化曲线

Figure 5. Monthly changing curves of the average days of extreme precipitation in South China during 1962-2001

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 6 1962~2001年华南地区平均最大连续5 d降水量的月变化曲线

Figure 6. Monthly changing curves of average maximum precipitation in five consecutive days in South China during 1962-2001

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 7 1962~2001年华南地区平均最大连续干日数的月变化曲线

Figure 7. Monthly changing curves of average maximum number of consecutive drought days in South China during 1962-2001

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 8 SRES A1B情景下华南地区在不同时段逐日平均降水量发生频率相对气候基准时段的变化率分布

Figure 8. Distributions of changing rate of daily average precipitation frequency compared with that in the climatic reference period in different periods in South China under SRES A1B (Special Report on Emissions Scenarios A1B) scenario

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 9 SRES A1B情景下华南地区未来极端降水日数相对气候基准时段变化的(a)年际分布和(b)月分布

Figure 9. (a) Yearly distribution and (b) monthly distribution of extreme precipitation days in the future compared with that in the climatic reference period in South China under SRES A1B scenario

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 10 SRES A1B情景下华南地区2040~2099年最大连续5 d降水量相对气候基准时段变化的(a)年际分布和(b)月分布

Figure 10. (a)Yearly distribution and (b) monthly distribution of maximum precipitation in five consecutive days in the future compared with that in the climatic reference period in South China under SRES A1B scenario

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 11 SRES A1B情景下华南地区2040~2099年最大连续干日数相对气候基准时段变化的年际分布：(a)春季；(b)夏季；(c)秋季；(d)冬季

Figure 11. Yearly distributions of changes in maximum number of consecutive drought days during 2040-2099 compared with that in the climatic reference period in South China area under the SRES A1B scenario: (a) Spring; (b) summer; (c) autumn; (d) winter

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

表 1 本文所选取的极端降水指标及其定义

Table 1. The selected extreme precipitation indices and definition in this paper

指标	定义
极端降水日数	将每年逐雨日(日降水量大于或等于1.0 mm)降水量按升序排列，第99个百分位值的多年平均值定义为极端降水的阈值，当某日降水量超过此极端阈值时，称之为一个极端降水日数。
最大连续5 d降水量	连续5 d降水量的最大值
最大连续干日数	最大的连续日降水量小于1.0 mm的日数

下载: 导出CSV

表 2 1962~2001年华南地区平均各极端降水指标的年际变化曲线的相关系数及显著性检验

Table 2. Relevant parameters and significance test of yearly changing curves of average extreme precipitation indices in South China during 1962-2001

	模拟与观测的相关系数
	极端降水日数	最大连续5 d降水量	最大连续干日数
春季	0.32	0.41	0.82
夏季	0.47	0.34	0.40
秋季	0.36	0.35	0.38
冬季	0.35	0.84	0.85
注：相关系数临界值(显著性水平α=0.05)为0.31。

下载: 导出CSV

表 3 极端降水指数在不同时段的均值

Table 3. Averages of extreme precipitation indices during different periods

时段	极端降水日数/d a^-1	最大连续5 d降水量/mm
气候基准时段	1.55	232.18
A时段	2.73	353.49
B时段	2.96	384.61

下载: 导出CSV

表 4 3个时段极端降水指数之间进行均值差异显著性检验的统计值t

Table 4. Statistical value t of mean difference test for extreme precipitation indices during the three different periods

	统计值t
	极端降水日数	最大连续5 d降水量
A时段与气候基准时段	4.966	4.781
B时段与气候基准时段	5.886	5.906
B时段与A时段	0.804	0.912
注：α=0.05检验标准值t_α=2.002。

下载: 导出CSV

表 5 最大连续干日数在不同时段各季节的均值

Table 5. Averages of maximum number of consecutive drought days during different periods

d/season
时段	最大连续干日数
时段	春季	夏季	秋季	冬季
气候基准时段	10.99	9.04	27.00	23.2
A时段	12.11	8.92	25.55	25.9
B时段	11.05	8.77	24.29	28.6

下载: 导出CSV

表 6 3个时段最大连续干日数之间进行均值差异显著性检验的统计值t和检验标准值t_α

Table 6. Statistical value t and test standard value t_α of mean difference test for maximum number of consecutive drought days during three different periods

时段	统计值t
时段	春季	夏季	秋季	冬季
A时段与气候基准时段	1.245	0.223	0.665	1.191
B时段与气候基准时段	0.081	0.564	1.278	1.799
B时段与A时段	1.245	0.316	0.564	0.897
注：α=0.05检验标准值t_α=2.002；α=0.10检验标准值t_α=1.672。

下载: 导出CSV

参考文献(29)

[1]	Frich P, Alexander L V, Della-Marta P, et al. 2002. Observed coherent changes in climatic extremes during the second half of the twentieth century[J]. Climate Research, 19:193-212, doi: 10.3354/cr019193.
[2]	Gao X J, Zhao Z C, Giorgi F. 2002. Changes of extreme events in regional climate simulations over East Asia[J]. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 19 (5):927-942, doi: 10.1007/s00376-002-0056-2.
[3]	IPCC. 2007. Climate change 2007: The physical science basis-summary for policymakers[M]//Contribution of Working Group Ⅰ to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA: Cambridge University Press.
[4]	IPCC. 2013. Summary for policymakers[M]//Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group Ⅰ to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Stocker T F, Qin D, Plattner G K, et al, Eds. Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA: Cambridge University Press.
[5]	江志红, 陈威霖, 宋杰, 等. 2009. 7个IPCC AR4模式对中国地区极端降水指数模拟能力的评估及其未来情景预估[J].大气科学, 33 (1):109-120. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2009.01.10 Jiang Zhihong, Chen Weilin, Song Jie, et al. 2009. Projection and evaluation of the precipitation extremes indices over China based on seven IPCC AR4 coupled climate models[J]. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences (in Chinese), 33 (1):109-120, doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2009.01.10.
[6]	Jones R G, Noguer M, Hassell D C, et al. 2004. Generating high resolution climate change scenarios using PRECIS[Z]. Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, UK, http://precis.metoffice.com/docs/Flyers_COP9_RCM.pdf.
[7]	Kitoh A, Hosaka M, Adachi Y, et al. 2005. Future projections of precipitation characteristics in East Asia simulated by the MRI CGCM2[J]. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 22(4):467-478, doi: 10.1007/BF02918481.
[8]	莫伟强, 许吟隆, 黎伟标. 2007. 华南地区未来极端气候事件变化的情景分析[C]//中国气象学会2007年年会气候变化分会场论文集. 广州: 中国气象学会. Mo Weiqiang, Xu Yinlong, Li Weibiao. 2007. Scenario Analysis of future extreme climates change in South China[C]//Chinese Meteorological Society Proceedings of Conference on Climate Change at the Venue in 2007 (in Chinese). Guangzhou: Chinese Meteorological Society.
[9]	牛佳田, 邰学礼, 刘兆金, 等. 2011.三江平原桦川县近60年降水变化特征与旱涝分析[J].中国农学通报, 27 (11):198-202. http://d.wanfangdata.com.cn/Periodical_zgnxtb201111039.aspx Niu Jiatian, Tai Xueli, Liu Zhaojin, et al. 2011. Analysis on precipitation characteristics and drought-flood in Huachuan county of Sanjiang Plain for nearly 60 years[J]. Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin (in Chinese), 27 (11):198-202. http://d.wanfangdata.com.cn/Periodical_zgnxtb201111039.aspx
[10]	钱维宏, 符娇兰, 张玮玮, 等. 2007.近40年中国平均气候与极值气候变化的概述[J].地球科学进展, 22 (7):673-684. doi: 10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2007.07.0673 Qian Weihong, Fu Jiaolan, Zhang Weiwei, et al. 2007. Change in mean climate and extreme climate in China during the last 40 years[J]. Advances in Earth Science (in Chinese), 22 (7):673-684. doi: 10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2007.07.0673
[11]	秦大河, 丁一汇, 苏纪兰, 等. 2005.中国气候与环境演变评估(Ⅰ):中国气候与环境变化及未来趋势[J].气候变化研究进展, 1 (1):4-9. http://d.wanfangdata.com.cn/Periodical/qhbhyjjz200501002 Qin Dahe, Ding Yihui, Su Jilan, et al. 2005. Assessment of climate and environment changes in China (Ⅰ):Climate and environment changes in China and their projection[J]. Advances in Climate Change Research (in Chinese), 1 (1):4-9. http://d.wanfangdata.com.cn/Periodical/qhbhyjjz200501002
[12]	苏布达, 姜彤, 任国玉, 等. 2006.长江流域1960~2004年极端强降水时空变化趋势[J].气候变化研究进展, 2 (1):9-14. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1673-1719.2006.01.002 Su Buda, Jiang Tong, Ren Guoyu, et al. 2006. Observed trends of precipitation extremes in the Yangtze River basin during 1960 to 2004[J]. Advances in Climate Change Research (in Chinese), 2 (1):9-14. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1673-1719.2006.01.002
[13]	苏布达, Gemmer M, 姜彤, 等. 2007. 1960~2005年长江流域降水极值概率分布特征[J].气候变化研究进展, 3 (4):208-213. https://wenku.baidu.com/view/c13d3b2243323968011c92da.html Su Buda, Gemmer M, Jiang Tong, et al. 2007. Probability distribution of precipitation extremes over the Yangtze River Basin during 1960-2005[J]. Advances in Climate Change Research (in Chinese), 3 (4):208-213. https://wenku.baidu.com/view/c13d3b2243323968011c92da.html
[14]	Wang Y, Yan Z W. 2009. Trends in seasonal precipitation over China during 1961-2007[J]. Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters, 2 (3):165-171, doi: 10.1080/16742834.2009.11446798.
[15]	王艳娇, 闫峰. 2014. 1960-2010年中国降水区域分异及年代际变化特征[J].地理科学进展, 33 (10):1354-1363. doi: 10.11820/dlkxjz.2014.10.007 Wang Yanjiao, Yan Feng. 2014. Regional differentiation and decadal change of precipitation in China in 1960-2010[J]. Progress in Geography (in Chinese), 33 (10):1354-1363, doi: 10.11820/dlkxjz.2014.10.007.
[16]	王志伟, 唐红玉, 李芬. 2005.近50年中国华南雨涝变化特征分析[J].热带气象学报, 21 (1):87-92. http://www.wanfangdata.com.cn/details/detail.do?_type=perio&id=rdqxxb200501010 Wang Zhiwei, Tang Hongyu, Li Fen. 2005. Analysis of changing characteristics of floods in South China during the recent 50 years[J]. Journal of Tropical Meteorology (in Chinese), 21 (1):87-92. http://www.wanfangdata.com.cn/details/detail.do?_type=perio&id=rdqxxb200501010
[17]	魏凤英. 2009.现代气候统计诊断与预测技术[M].北京:气象出版社, 27-29. Wei Fengying. 2009. Modern Climatic Statistical Diagnostics and Prediction Technique (in Chinese)[M]. Beijing:China Meteorological Press, 27-29.
[18]	Xie P P, Chen M Y, Yang S, et al. 2007. A gauge-based analysis of daily precipitation over East Asia[J]. Journal of Hydrometeorology, 8 (3):607-626, doi: 10.1175/JHM583.1.
[19]	许吟隆, 黄晓莹, 张勇, 等. 2005.中国21世纪气候变化情景的统计分析[J].气候变化研究进展, 1 (2):80-83. http://www.wanfangdata.com.cn/details/detail.do?_type=perio&id=qhbhyjjz200502007 Xu Yinlong, Huang Xiaoying, Zhang Yong, et al. 2005. Statistical analyses of climate change scenarios over China in the 21st Century[J]. Advances in Climate Change Research (in Chinese), 1 (2):80-83. http://www.wanfangdata.com.cn/details/detail.do?_type=perio&id=qhbhyjjz200502007
[20]	杨宏青, 陈正洪, 石燕, 等. 2005.长江流域近40年强降水的变化趋势[J].气象, 31 (3):66-68. doi: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2005.3.015 Yang Hongqing, Chen Zhenghong, Shi Yan, et al. 2005. Change trends of heavy rainfall events for last 40 years in the Changjiang Valley[J]. Meteorological Monthly (in Chinese), 31 (3):66-68, doi: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2005.3.015.
[21]	袁文平, 周广胜. 2004.标准化降水指标与Z指数在我国应用的对比分析[J].植物生态学报, 28 (4):523-529. doi: 10.17521/cjpe.2004.0071 Yuan Wenpin, Zhou Guangsheng. 2004. Comparison between standardized precipitation index and Z-index in China[J]. Acta Phytoecologica Sinica (in Chinese), 28 (4):523-529. doi: 10.17521/cjpe.2004.0071
[22]	翟建青, 曾小凡, 姜彤. 2011.中国旱涝格局演变(1961~2050年)及其对水资源的影响[J].热带地理, 31 (3):237-242. http://d.wanfangdata.com.cn/Periodical_rddl201103002.aspx Zhai Jianqin, Zeng Xiaofan, Jiang Tong. 2011. Evolution of drought and flood pattern and its effect on water resources in China from 1961 to 2050[J]. Tropical Geography (in Chinese), 31 (3):237-242. http://d.wanfangdata.com.cn/Periodical_rddl201103002.aspx
[23]	翟盘茂, 邹旭恺. 2005. 1951~2003年中国气温和降水变化及其对干旱的影响[J].气候变化研究进展, 1 (1):16-18. https://www.wenkuxiazai.com/doc/5c746853f01dc281e53af0b5.html Zhai Panmao, Zou Xukai. 2005. Changes in temperature and precipitation and their impacts on drought in China during 1951-2003[J]. Advances in Climate Change Research (in Chinese), 1 (1):16-18. https://www.wenkuxiazai.com/doc/5c746853f01dc281e53af0b5.html
[24]	翟盘茂, 任福民, 张强. 1999.中国降水极值变化趋势检测[J].气象学报, 57 (2):208-216. doi: 10.11676/qxxb1999.019 Zhai Panmao, Ren Fumin, Zhang Qiang. 1999. Detection of trends in China's precipitation extremes[J]. Acta Meteorologica Sinica (in Chinese), 57 (2):208-216, doi: 10.11676/qxxb1999.019.
[25]	Zhai P M, Zhang X B, Wan H, et al. 2005. Trends in total precipitation and frequency of daily precipitation extremes over China[J]. J. Climate, 18:1096-1108, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-3318.1.
[26]	张尚印, 姚佩珍, 吴虹, 等. 1998.我国北方旱涝指标的确定及旱涝分布状况[J].自然灾害学报, 7 (2):22-28. http://www.cqvip.com/Main/Detail.aspx?id=3065366 Zhang Shangyin, Yao Peizhen, Wu Hong, et al. 1998. Determination of drought flood index and distribution of drought flood in the north of China[J]. Journal of Natural Disasters (in Chinese), 7 (2):22-28. http://www.cqvip.com/Main/Detail.aspx?id=3065366
[27]	Zhang Y, Xu Y L, Dong W J, et al. 2006. A future climate scenario of regional changes in extreme climate events over China using the PRECIS climate model[J]. Geophys. Res. Lett., 33 (24):L24702, doi: 10.1029/2006GL027229.
[28]	邹旭恺, 任国玉, 张强. 2010.基于综合气象干旱指数的中国干旱变化趋势研究[J].气候与环境研究, 15 (4):371-378. http://www.dqkxqk.ac.cn/qhhj/qhhj/ch/reader/view_abstract.aspx?flag=1&file_no=20100404&journal_id=qhhj Zhou Xukai, Ren Guoyu, Zhang Qiang. 2010. Droughts variations in China based on a compound index of meteorological drought[J]. Climatic and Environmental Research (in Chinese), 15 (4):371-378. http://www.dqkxqk.ac.cn/qhhj/qhhj/ch/reader/view_abstract.aspx?flag=1&file_no=20100404&journal_id=qhhj
[29]	邹用昌, 杨修群, 孙旭光, 等. 2009.我国极端降水过程频数时空变化的季节差异[J].南京大学学报(自然科学版), 45 (1):98-109. http://www.wanfangdata.com.cn/details/detail.do?_type=perio&id=njdxxb200901014 Zou Yongchang, Yang Xiuqun, Sun Xuguang, et al. 2009. Seasonal difference of the spatio-temporal variation of the number of the extreme precipitation processes in China[J]. Journal of Nanjing University (Natural Sciences) (in Chinese), 45 (1):98-109. http://www.wanfangdata.com.cn/details/detail.do?_type=perio&id=njdxxb200901014