华南地区21世纪中后期旱涝变化的情景分析

吴美双; 黎伟标; 许吟隆; 李秀珍; 张敏

doi:10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2017.17018

华南地区21世纪中后期旱涝变化的情景分析

doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2017.17018

1.
国家海洋局南海预报中心, 广州 510000
2.
中山大学大气科学学院, 广州 510275
3.
中国农业科学院农业环境与可持续发展研究所, 北京 100081

基金项目:

国家海洋局南海分局海洋科学技术局长基金 1716

国家自然科学基金面上项目 41675043

国家自然科学基金面上项目 41375050

广东省水利科技创新项目 2016-02

详细信息

作者简介:
吴美双, 1985年出生, 女, 硕士, 助理工程师, 主要从事气候情景分析。E-mail: wumsh2009@qq.com

中图分类号: P467
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- 被引次数: 0
出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2017-02-13
- 网络出版日期: 2017-07-07
- 刊出日期: 2018-03-20

Scenario Analysis of Drought/Flood Change in the Middle and Late 21st Century in South China

1.
South China Sea Forecast Center, State Oceanic Administration, Guangzhou 510000
2.
School of Atmospheric Sciences, Sun Yai-Sen University, Guangzhou 510275
3.
Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development in Agriculture, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100081

Funds:

Director Foundation for Marine Science and Technology by State Oceanic Administation, South China Sea Branch 1716

National Natural Science Foundation of China 41675043

National Natural Science Foundation of China 41375050

the Water Resource Science and Technology Innovation Program of Guangdong Province 2016-02

摘要

摘要: 利用区域气候模式PRECIS（Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies），首先选取若干旱涝指标，在验证模式对各旱涝指标的模拟能力的基础上，分析SRES A1B（Special Report on Emissions Scenarios A1B）情景下华南地区21世纪中后期（2040~2099年）各旱涝指标相对气候基准时段（1961~1990年）的变化情况，进而初步探讨华南地区未来旱涝情况的可能变化。研究表明，PRECIS能够较好地模拟出所选取的旱涝指标的年际变化和月变化特征；在SRES A1B情景下，21世纪中后期华南地区极端强降水事件的发生频率和强度都将显著增加，且强降水期将有所延长，从而使得华南地区出现雨涝灾害的可能性大大增加。与此同时，华南地区未来在春季、夏季和秋季发生气象干旱的可能性变化不显著，但在冬季发生气象干旱的可能性却将增加，尤其是在21世纪后30年冬季出现气象干旱的可能性更高。
- 华南地区 /
- PRECIS模式 /
- 旱涝变化 /
- 情景分析
Abstract: This paper exploits the regional climate mode PRECIS (Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies) to analyze the changes of the drought and flood indices in South China in the middle and later period of the 21st century under the SRES A1B (Special Report on Emissions Scenarios A1B) scenario compared with the climatic reference period (1961-1990). Plenty of drought and flood indices are utilized first to verify the capacity of PRECIS for drought and flood indices simulation. Possible changes of the future drought and flood conditions in South China are preliminarily discussed. Results indicate that PRECIS can well simulate yearly and monthly changing features of the selected drought and flood indices. Under the SRES A1B scenario, the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation event in South China in the middle and later period of the 21st century will increase dramatically, and the period of precipitation extreme will increase too, thereby the possibility of flood disaster occurrence will grow to a large extent. Meanwhile, possible changes of meteorological drought in spring, summer and autumn in South China is not obvious, but in winter the possibility will rise, especially in the winters of the last thirty years of the 21st century, the possibility will be higher.
- South China area /
- PRECIS model /
- Drought/Flood Change /
- Scenario analysis

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图 1 华南地区观测资料格点与PRECIS模式格点分布(+为观测格点，●为模式格点)

Figure 1. Distributions of observation data grids in South China and PRECIS (Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies) model grids (+ refers to observation grid; ● refers to model grid)

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图 2 1962~2001年华南地区平均极端降水日数的年际变化曲线：(a)春季；(b)夏季；(c)秋季；(d)冬季

Figure 2. Yearly changing curves of average days of extreme precipitation in South China during 1962-2001: (a) Spring; (b) summer; (c) autumn; (d) winter

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图 3 1962~2001年华南地区平均最大连续5 d降水量的年际变化曲线：(a)春季；(b)夏季；(c)秋季；(d)冬季

Figure 3. Yearly changing curves of average maximum precipitation in five consecutive days in South China during 1962-2001: (a) Spring; (b) summer; (c) autumn; (d) winter

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图 4 1962~2001年华南地区平均最大连续干日数的年际变化曲线：(a)春季；(b)夏季；(c)秋季；(d)冬季

Figure 4. Yearly changing curves of average maximum number of consecutive drought days in South China during 1962-2001: (a) Spring; (b) summer; (c) autumn; (d) winter

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图 5 1962~2001年华南地区平均极端降水日数的月变化曲线

Figure 5. Monthly changing curves of the average days of extreme precipitation in South China during 1962-2001

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图 6 1962~2001年华南地区平均最大连续5 d降水量的月变化曲线

Figure 6. Monthly changing curves of average maximum precipitation in five consecutive days in South China during 1962-2001

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图 7 1962~2001年华南地区平均最大连续干日数的月变化曲线

Figure 7. Monthly changing curves of average maximum number of consecutive drought days in South China during 1962-2001

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图 8 SRES A1B情景下华南地区在不同时段逐日平均降水量发生频率相对气候基准时段的变化率分布

Figure 8. Distributions of changing rate of daily average precipitation frequency compared with that in the climatic reference period in different periods in South China under SRES A1B (Special Report on Emissions Scenarios A1B) scenario

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图 9 SRES A1B情景下华南地区未来极端降水日数相对气候基准时段变化的(a)年际分布和(b)月分布

Figure 9. (a) Yearly distribution and (b) monthly distribution of extreme precipitation days in the future compared with that in the climatic reference period in South China under SRES A1B scenario

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图 10 SRES A1B情景下华南地区2040~2099年最大连续5 d降水量相对气候基准时段变化的(a)年际分布和(b)月分布

Figure 10. (a)Yearly distribution and (b) monthly distribution of maximum precipitation in five consecutive days in the future compared with that in the climatic reference period in South China under SRES A1B scenario

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图 11 SRES A1B情景下华南地区2040~2099年最大连续干日数相对气候基准时段变化的年际分布：(a)春季；(b)夏季；(c)秋季；(d)冬季

Figure 11. Yearly distributions of changes in maximum number of consecutive drought days during 2040-2099 compared with that in the climatic reference period in South China area under the SRES A1B scenario: (a) Spring; (b) summer; (c) autumn; (d) winter

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表 1 本文所选取的极端降水指标及其定义

Table 1. The selected extreme precipitation indices and definition in this paper

指标	定义
极端降水日数	将每年逐雨日(日降水量大于或等于1.0 mm)降水量按升序排列，第99个百分位值的多年平均值定义为极端降水的阈值，当某日降水量超过此极端阈值时，称之为一个极端降水日数。
最大连续5 d降水量	连续5 d降水量的最大值
最大连续干日数	最大的连续日降水量小于1.0 mm的日数

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表 2 1962~2001年华南地区平均各极端降水指标的年际变化曲线的相关系数及显著性检验

Table 2. Relevant parameters and significance test of yearly changing curves of average extreme precipitation indices in South China during 1962-2001

	模拟与观测的相关系数
	极端降水日数	最大连续5 d降水量	最大连续干日数
春季	0.32	0.41	0.82
夏季	0.47	0.34	0.40
秋季	0.36	0.35	0.38
冬季	0.35	0.84	0.85
注：相关系数临界值(显著性水平α=0.05)为0.31。

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表 3 极端降水指数在不同时段的均值

Table 3. Averages of extreme precipitation indices during different periods

时段	极端降水日数/d a^-1	最大连续5 d降水量/mm
气候基准时段	1.55	232.18
A时段	2.73	353.49
B时段	2.96	384.61

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表 4 3个时段极端降水指数之间进行均值差异显著性检验的统计值t

Table 4. Statistical value t of mean difference test for extreme precipitation indices during the three different periods

	统计值t
	极端降水日数	最大连续5 d降水量
A时段与气候基准时段	4.966	4.781
B时段与气候基准时段	5.886	5.906
B时段与A时段	0.804	0.912
注：α=0.05检验标准值t_α=2.002。

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表 5 最大连续干日数在不同时段各季节的均值

Table 5. Averages of maximum number of consecutive drought days during different periods

d/season
时段	最大连续干日数
时段	春季	夏季	秋季	冬季
气候基准时段	10.99	9.04	27.00	23.2
A时段	12.11	8.92	25.55	25.9
B时段	11.05	8.77	24.29	28.6

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表 6 3个时段最大连续干日数之间进行均值差异显著性检验的统计值t和检验标准值t_α

Table 6. Statistical value t and test standard value t_α of mean difference test for maximum number of consecutive drought days during three different periods

时段	统计值t
时段	春季	夏季	秋季	冬季
A时段与气候基准时段	1.245	0.223	0.665	1.191
B时段与气候基准时段	0.081	0.564	1.278	1.799
B时段与A时段	1.245	0.316	0.564	0.897
注：α=0.05检验标准值t_α=2.002；α=0.10检验标准值t_α=1.672。

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