Scenario Analysis of Drought/Flood Change in the Middle and Late 21st Century in South China
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摘要: 利用区域气候模式PRECIS(Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies),首先选取若干旱涝指标,在验证模式对各旱涝指标的模拟能力的基础上,分析SRES A1B(Special Report on Emissions Scenarios A1B)情景下华南地区21世纪中后期(2040~2099年)各旱涝指标相对气候基准时段(1961~1990年)的变化情况,进而初步探讨华南地区未来旱涝情况的可能变化。研究表明,PRECIS能够较好地模拟出所选取的旱涝指标的年际变化和月变化特征;在SRES A1B情景下,21世纪中后期华南地区极端强降水事件的发生频率和强度都将显著增加,且强降水期将有所延长,从而使得华南地区出现雨涝灾害的可能性大大增加。与此同时,华南地区未来在春季、夏季和秋季发生气象干旱的可能性变化不显著,但在冬季发生气象干旱的可能性却将增加,尤其是在21世纪后30年冬季出现气象干旱的可能性更高。Abstract: This paper exploits the regional climate mode PRECIS (Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies) to analyze the changes of the drought and flood indices in South China in the middle and later period of the 21st century under the SRES A1B (Special Report on Emissions Scenarios A1B) scenario compared with the climatic reference period (1961-1990). Plenty of drought and flood indices are utilized first to verify the capacity of PRECIS for drought and flood indices simulation. Possible changes of the future drought and flood conditions in South China are preliminarily discussed. Results indicate that PRECIS can well simulate yearly and monthly changing features of the selected drought and flood indices. Under the SRES A1B scenario, the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation event in South China in the middle and later period of the 21st century will increase dramatically, and the period of precipitation extreme will increase too, thereby the possibility of flood disaster occurrence will grow to a large extent. Meanwhile, possible changes of meteorological drought in spring, summer and autumn in South China is not obvious, but in winter the possibility will rise, especially in the winters of the last thirty years of the 21st century, the possibility will be higher.
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Key words:
- South China area /
- PRECIS model /
- Drought/Flood Change /
- Scenario analysis
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图 11 SRES A1B情景下华南地区2040~2099年最大连续干日数相对气候基准时段变化的年际分布:(a)春季;(b)夏季;(c)秋季;(d)冬季
Figure 11. Yearly distributions of changes in maximum number of consecutive drought days during 2040-2099 compared with that in the climatic reference period in South China area under the SRES A1B scenario: (a) Spring; (b) summer; (c) autumn; (d) winter
表 1 本文所选取的极端降水指标及其定义
Table 1. The selected extreme precipitation indices and definition in this paper
指标 定义 极端降水日数 将每年逐雨日(日降水量大于或等于1.0 mm)降水量按升序排列,第99个百分位值的多年平均值定义为极端降水的阈值,当某日降水量超过此极端阈值时,称之为一个极端降水日数。 最大连续5 d降水量 连续5 d降水量的最大值 最大连续干日数 最大的连续日降水量小于1.0 mm的日数 表 2 1962~2001年华南地区平均各极端降水指标的年际变化曲线的相关系数及显著性检验
Table 2. Relevant parameters and significance test of yearly changing curves of average extreme precipitation indices in South China during 1962-2001
模拟与观测的相关系数 极端降水日数 最大连续5 d降水量 最大连续干日数 春季 0.32 0.41 0.82 夏季 0.47 0.34 0.40 秋季 0.36 0.35 0.38 冬季 0.35 0.84 0.85 注:相关系数临界值(显著性水平α=0.05)为0.31。 表 3 极端降水指数在不同时段的均值
Table 3. Averages of extreme precipitation indices during different periods
时段 极端降水日数/d a-1 最大连续5 d降水量/mm 气候基准时段 1.55 232.18 A时段 2.73 353.49 B时段 2.96 384.61 表 4 3个时段极端降水指数之间进行均值差异显著性检验的统计值t
Table 4. Statistical value t of mean difference test for extreme precipitation indices during the three different periods
统计值t 极端降水日数 最大连续5 d降水量 A时段与气候基准时段 4.966 4.781 B时段与气候基准时段 5.886 5.906 B时段与A时段 0.804 0.912 注:α=0.05检验标准值tα=2.002。 表 5 最大连续干日数在不同时段各季节的均值
Table 5. Averages of maximum number of consecutive drought days during different periods
d/season 时段 最大连续干日数 春季 夏季 秋季 冬季 气候基准时段 10.99 9.04 27.00 23.2 A时段 12.11 8.92 25.55 25.9 B时段 11.05 8.77 24.29 28.6 表 6 3个时段最大连续干日数之间进行均值差异显著性检验的统计值t和检验标准值tα
Table 6. Statistical value t and test standard value tα of mean difference test for maximum number of consecutive drought days during three different periods
时段 统计值t 春季 夏季 秋季 冬季 A时段与气候基准时段 1.245 0.223 0.665 1.191 B时段与气候基准时段 0.081 0.564 1.278 1.799 B时段与A时段 1.245 0.316 0.564 0.897 注:α=0.05检验标准值tα=2.002;α=0.10检验标准值tα=1.672。 -
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