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华南地区21世纪中后期旱涝变化的情景分析

吴美双 黎伟标 许吟隆 李秀珍 张敏

吴美双, 黎伟标, 许吟隆, 李秀珍, 张敏. 华南地区21世纪中后期旱涝变化的情景分析[J]. 气候与环境研究, 2018, 23(2): 241-251. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2017.17018
引用本文: 吴美双, 黎伟标, 许吟隆, 李秀珍, 张敏. 华南地区21世纪中后期旱涝变化的情景分析[J]. 气候与环境研究, 2018, 23(2): 241-251. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2017.17018
Meishuang WU, Weibiao LI, Yinlong XU, Xiuzhen LI, Min ZHANG. Scenario Analysis of Drought/Flood Change in the Middle and Late 21st Century in South China[J]. Climatic and Environmental Research, 2018, 23(2): 241-251. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2017.17018
Citation: Meishuang WU, Weibiao LI, Yinlong XU, Xiuzhen LI, Min ZHANG. Scenario Analysis of Drought/Flood Change in the Middle and Late 21st Century in South China[J]. Climatic and Environmental Research, 2018, 23(2): 241-251. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2017.17018

华南地区21世纪中后期旱涝变化的情景分析

doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2017.17018
基金项目: 

国家海洋局南海分局海洋科学技术局长基金 1716

国家自然科学基金面上项目 41675043

国家自然科学基金面上项目 41375050

广东省水利科技创新项目 2016-02

详细信息
    作者简介:

    吴美双, 1985年出生, 女, 硕士, 助理工程师, 主要从事气候情景分析。E-mail: wumsh2009@qq.com

  • 中图分类号: P467

Scenario Analysis of Drought/Flood Change in the Middle and Late 21st Century in South China

Funds: 

Director Foundation for Marine Science and Technology by State Oceanic Administation, South China Sea Branch 1716

National Natural Science Foundation of China 41675043

National Natural Science Foundation of China 41375050

the Water Resource Science and Technology Innovation Program of Guangdong Province 2016-02

  • 摘要: 利用区域气候模式PRECIS(Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies),首先选取若干旱涝指标,在验证模式对各旱涝指标的模拟能力的基础上,分析SRES A1B(Special Report on Emissions Scenarios A1B)情景下华南地区21世纪中后期(2040~2099年)各旱涝指标相对气候基准时段(1961~1990年)的变化情况,进而初步探讨华南地区未来旱涝情况的可能变化。研究表明,PRECIS能够较好地模拟出所选取的旱涝指标的年际变化和月变化特征;在SRES A1B情景下,21世纪中后期华南地区极端强降水事件的发生频率和强度都将显著增加,且强降水期将有所延长,从而使得华南地区出现雨涝灾害的可能性大大增加。与此同时,华南地区未来在春季、夏季和秋季发生气象干旱的可能性变化不显著,但在冬季发生气象干旱的可能性却将增加,尤其是在21世纪后30年冬季出现气象干旱的可能性更高。
  • 图  1  华南地区观测资料格点与PRECIS模式格点分布(+为观测格点,●为模式格点)

    Figure  1.  Distributions of observation data grids in South China and PRECIS (Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies) model grids (+ refers to observation grid; ● refers to model grid)

    图  2  1962~2001年华南地区平均极端降水日数的年际变化曲线:(a)春季;(b)夏季;(c)秋季;(d)冬季

    Figure  2.  Yearly changing curves of average days of extreme precipitation in South China during 1962-2001: (a) Spring; (b) summer; (c) autumn; (d) winter

    图  3  1962~2001年华南地区平均最大连续5 d降水量的年际变化曲线:(a)春季;(b)夏季;(c)秋季;(d)冬季

    Figure  3.  Yearly changing curves of average maximum precipitation in five consecutive days in South China during 1962-2001: (a) Spring; (b) summer; (c) autumn; (d) winter

    图  4  1962~2001年华南地区平均最大连续干日数的年际变化曲线:(a)春季;(b)夏季;(c)秋季;(d)冬季

    Figure  4.  Yearly changing curves of average maximum number of consecutive drought days in South China during 1962-2001: (a) Spring; (b) summer; (c) autumn; (d) winter

    图  5  1962~2001年华南地区平均极端降水日数的月变化曲线

    Figure  5.  Monthly changing curves of the average days of extreme precipitation in South China during 1962-2001

    图  6  1962~2001年华南地区平均最大连续5 d降水量的月变化曲线

    Figure  6.  Monthly changing curves of average maximum precipitation in five consecutive days in South China during 1962-2001

    图  7  1962~2001年华南地区平均最大连续干日数的月变化曲线

    Figure  7.  Monthly changing curves of average maximum number of consecutive drought days in South China during 1962-2001

    图  8  SRES A1B情景下华南地区在不同时段逐日平均降水量发生频率相对气候基准时段的变化率分布

    Figure  8.  Distributions of changing rate of daily average precipitation frequency compared with that in the climatic reference period in different periods in South China under SRES A1B (Special Report on Emissions Scenarios A1B) scenario

    图  9  SRES A1B情景下华南地区未来极端降水日数相对气候基准时段变化的(a)年际分布和(b)月分布

    Figure  9.  (a) Yearly distribution and (b) monthly distribution of extreme precipitation days in the future compared with that in the climatic reference period in South China under SRES A1B scenario

    图  10  SRES A1B情景下华南地区2040~2099年最大连续5 d降水量相对气候基准时段变化的(a)年际分布和(b)月分布

    Figure  10.  (a)Yearly distribution and (b) monthly distribution of maximum precipitation in five consecutive days in the future compared with that in the climatic reference period in South China under SRES A1B scenario

    图  11  SRES A1B情景下华南地区2040~2099年最大连续干日数相对气候基准时段变化的年际分布:(a)春季;(b)夏季;(c)秋季;(d)冬季

    Figure  11.  Yearly distributions of changes in maximum number of consecutive drought days during 2040-2099 compared with that in the climatic reference period in South China area under the SRES A1B scenario: (a) Spring; (b) summer; (c) autumn; (d) winter

    表  1  本文所选取的极端降水指标及其定义

    Table  1.   The selected extreme precipitation indices and definition in this paper

    指标 定义
    极端降水日数 将每年逐雨日(日降水量大于或等于1.0 mm)降水量按升序排列,第99个百分位值的多年平均值定义为极端降水的阈值,当某日降水量超过此极端阈值时,称之为一个极端降水日数。
    最大连续5 d降水量 连续5 d降水量的最大值
    最大连续干日数 最大的连续日降水量小于1.0 mm的日数
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  2  1962~2001年华南地区平均各极端降水指标的年际变化曲线的相关系数及显著性检验

    Table  2.   Relevant parameters and significance test of yearly changing curves of average extreme precipitation indices in South China during 1962-2001

    模拟与观测的相关系数
    极端降水日数 最大连续5 d降水量 最大连续干日数
    春季 0.32 0.41 0.82
    夏季 0.47 0.34 0.40
    秋季 0.36 0.35 0.38
    冬季 0.35 0.84 0.85
    注:相关系数临界值(显著性水平α=0.05)为0.31。
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  3  极端降水指数在不同时段的均值

    Table  3.   Averages of extreme precipitation indices during different periods

    时段 极端降水日数/d a-1 最大连续5 d降水量/mm
    气候基准时段 1.55 232.18
    A时段 2.73 353.49
    B时段 2.96 384.61
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  4  3个时段极端降水指数之间进行均值差异显著性检验的统计值t

    Table  4.   Statistical value t of mean difference test for extreme precipitation indices during the three different periods

    统计值t
    极端降水日数 最大连续5 d降水量
    A时段与气候基准时段 4.966 4.781
    B时段与气候基准时段 5.886 5.906
    B时段与A时段 0.804 0.912
    注:α=0.05检验标准值tα=2.002。
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  5  最大连续干日数在不同时段各季节的均值

    Table  5.   Averages of maximum number of consecutive drought days during different periods

    d/season
    时段 最大连续干日数
    春季 夏季 秋季 冬季
    气候基准时段 10.99 9.04 27.00 23.2
    A时段 12.11 8.92 25.55 25.9
    B时段 11.05 8.77 24.29 28.6
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  6  3个时段最大连续干日数之间进行均值差异显著性检验的统计值t和检验标准值tα

    Table  6.   Statistical value t and test standard value tα of mean difference test for maximum number of consecutive drought days during three different periods

    时段 统计值t
    春季 夏季 秋季 冬季
    A时段与气候基准时段 1.245 0.223 0.665 1.191
    B时段与气候基准时段 0.081 0.564 1.278 1.799
    B时段与A时段 1.245 0.316 0.564 0.897
    注:α=0.05检验标准值tα=2.002;α=0.10检验标准值tα=1.672。
    下载: 导出CSV
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出版历程
  • 收稿日期:  2017-02-13
  • 网络出版日期:  2017-07-07
  • 刊出日期:  2018-03-20

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