与印度洋偶极子模态有关的西太平洋海温异常型及其对东亚冬季气候的影响

吴楠; 李丽平; 李双林; 李琛

doi:10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2017.17022

与印度洋偶极子模态有关的西太平洋海温异常型及其对东亚冬季气候的影响

doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2017.17022

吴楠^{1, 2,},
李丽平¹,
李双林^2, ,,
李琛²

1.
南京信息工程大学大气科学学院, 南京 210044
2.
中国科学院大气物理研究所中国科学院气候变化研究中心, 北京 100029

基金项目:

国家自然科学基金项目 41528502

国家自然科学基金项目 41421004

详细信息

作者简介:
吴楠, 女, 1992年出生, 硕士, 主要从事海气相互作用方面的研究。E-mail:unique_nan@163.com

通讯作者:
李双林, E-mail:shuanglin.li@mail.iap.ac.cn

中图分类号: P461⁺.2
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出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2017-02-17
- 网络出版日期: 2017-06-21
- 刊出日期: 2018-07-20

Winter SST Variation Patterns in the Subtropical Western Pacific Associated with Indian Ocean Dipole and Their Influences on East Asian Winter Climate

Nan WU^{1, 2
,},
Liping LI¹,
Shuanglin LI^{2
, ,},
Chen LI²

1.
School of Atmospheric Science, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044
2.
Research Center for Climate Change, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029

Funds:

National Natural Science Foundation of China 41528502

National Natural Science Foundation of China 41421004

摘要

摘要: 利用NOAA（National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration）海温、GPCP（Global Precipitation Climatology Project）降水和ERA-20C（ECMWF's first atmospheric reanalysis of the 20th century）再分析大气环流资料，结合大气环流模式ECHAM5敏感性试验，研究了与秋季印度洋海温偶极子模态（IOD）相联系的冬季热带西太平洋海温异常型及其对东亚冬季气候的影响。发现在秋季发生IOD背景下，冬季西太平洋存在两类海温异常的变化型：一类是西太平洋区域一致偏暖/冷的模态，另一类是区域西冷东暖/西暖东冷的模态。尽管西太平洋海温一致偏暖和西冷东暖这两类海温变化型均有利于华南冬季少降水，但影响的范围有所不同。一致偏暖型引起的少降水范围较大，从华南扩展到长江中下游地区。西冷东暖型引起少降水范围主要限于华南，而在长江中下游到华北则降水偏多。相应地，在大气环流上，尽管两类海温异常型均有利于在西北太平洋菲律宾海附近出现气旋式环流异常，但气旋的强度和中心位置有差异。一致偏暖型引起的气旋偏强，中心位置偏西，其后部异常东北风控制的范围更大，导致少降水范围更大，而西冷东暖型引起的气旋偏弱，中心位置偏东，其后部异常东北风控制的范围小，导致少降水区域主要在华南沿海。本文结果对认识IOD调制随后冬季东亚降水异常的机理有重要意义。
- 印度洋海温偶极子(IOD) /
- 西太平洋海温异常型 /
- 东亚冬季气候异常 /
- 菲律宾气旋
Abstract: Using NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) observational SST (Sea Surface Temperature), GPCP (Global Precipitation Climatology Project) precipitation, and atmospheric circulation variables from the ERA-20C (ECMWF's first atmospheric reanalysis of the 20th century) reanalysis, winter SST variation patterns in the tropical western Pacific, which are related to the tropical Indian Ocean SST Dipole (IOD), and their impacts on East Asian climate are studied. Two types of SSTA (SST anormaly) pattern are found:A regional unanimous warm/cold pattern and a dipolar mode with SST anomalies in the western side opposite to that in the eastern side of the region. The two types of SSTA pattern both are favorable for winter precipitation suppression in southeastern China, but the domain sizes affected are different. The unanimous SSTA pattern affects a larger region from South China to the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River. The impact of the SSTA dipole pattern is only confined to South China, leading to less rainfall in South China but more rainfall in the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River. The corresponding atmospheric circulation anomalies can explain these rainfall anomalies. Although an anomalous cyclone occurs over the Philippine Sea in both of the cases, its strength and location are different. The cyclone forced by the unanimous warm SST pattern is stronger, and thus the anomalous westerly and northeasterly in the rear extend to a wider region, leading to a dry condition in a larger domain. In contrast, the cyclone forced by the dipolar pattern is weaker and the anomalous easterly and northeasterly are confined to a smaller area, leading to a dry condition only in southern China. Sensitive experiments by an AGCM, i.e., ECHAM5, validate the above results.
- Indian Ocean Dipole /
- SST anormaly of the western Pacific /
- Anomalies of wintertime climate in East Asia /
- Anticyclone in the Philippines

HTML全文

图 1 1900~2014年DMI变化曲线(图中曲线为标准化后的DMI，实线表示以0.75个标准差为阈值)

Figure 1. Standardized time series of the Indian Ocean SST DMI (Dipolar Mode Index) from 1900 to 2014. The horizontal lines stand for the threshold value of 0.75 standard deviation

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图 2 暖池区域(20°S~20°N, 110°E~160°E)EOF分析得到的空间型(左列，右上角数字表示每个模态的方差贡献百分率大小)和时间系数(右列，横坐标表示的是不连续的IOD位相显著年份)：(a、e)第一模态；(b、f)第二模态；(c、g)第三模态；(d、h)第四模态

Figure 2. The four leading EOF (Empirical Orthogonal Function) modes of SST anomalies (left colum) and their time coefficiences (right column) in the tropical western Pacific (20°S−20°N, 110°E−160°E): (a, c) The first EOF mode (EOF1); (b, f) the second EOF mode (EOF2); (c, g) the third EOF mode; (d, h) the fourth EOF mode. The fractional variance for each mode is indicated at the upper right of each panel. The horizontal coordinate of time series represents discontinuous IOD years

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图 3 标准化后的DMI指数和西太平洋海温两类主模态时间系数的散点图(图上的数值表示年份)：(a)EOF1；(b)EOF2

Figure 3. Scatter plots of the standardized DMI (Dipole Mode Index) and time coefficients of the EOF modes: (a) EOF1; (b) EOF2. The number on the pictures represent years

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图 4 (a) EOF1、(b)EOF2时间系数回归的冬季海温异常场；EOF1(左列)、EOF2(右列)(c、d)正、(e、f)负高值年份对应的冬季海温异常场的合成。图中填色部分为通过了90%置信度的显著性检验的区域

Figure 4. Regressions of boreal winter SST anomalies onto time coefficients of (a) EOF1 and (b) EOF2; composite SST anomalies for (c) positive significant EOF1 years, (d) positive significant EOF2 years, (e) negative significant EOF1 years, and (f) negative significant EOF2 years. The shading represents above the 90% confidence level

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图 5 (a) EOF1、(b)EOF2时间系数回归的冬季降水异常场(单位：mm/d)；EOF1(左列)、EOF2(右列)(c、d)正、(e、f)负高值年份对应的冬季降水异常场的合成。图中阴影部分为通过了90%置信度的显著性检验的区域

Figure 5. Regressions of boreal winter precipitation anomalies (mm/d) onto time coefficients of (a) EOF1 and (b) EOF2; composite precipitation anomalies for the (c) positive significant EOF1 years, (d) positive significant EOF2 years, (e) negative significant EOF1 years, and (f) negative significant EOF2 years. The shading represents significance above the 90% confidence level

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图 6 (a) EOF1、(b)EOF2时间系数回归的冬季SLP异常场(填色，单位：hPa)和850 hPa风异常场(矢量)；EOF1(左列)、EOF2(右列)(c、d)正、(e、f)负高值年份对应的冬季SLP异常场(填色，单位：hPa)和850 hPa风异常场(矢量)的合成。图中阴影部分为通过了90%置信度的显著性检验的区域

Figure 6. Regressions of boreal winter SLP (Sea Level Pressure) anomalies (colored, units: mm/d) and 850-hPa wind anomalies (vecter) onto time series of (a) EOF1 and (b) EOF2; composite SLP anomalies (colored, units: mm/d) and 850-hPa wind anomalies anomalies (vecter) for the (c) positive significant EOF1 years, (d) positive significant EOF2 years, (e) negative significant EOF1 years, and (f) negative significant EOF2 years. The shading represents significance above the 90% confidence level

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图 7 (a) EOF1、(b)EOF2时间系数回归的冬季500 hPa高度场异常场(单位：gpm)；EOF1(左列)、EOF2(右列)(c、d)正、(e、f)负高值年份对应的冬季500 hPa高度场的合成。图中阴影部分为通过了90%置信度的显著性检验的区域

Figure 7. Regressions of boreal winter 500-hPa geopotential height anomalies (gpm) onto time coefficients of (a) EOF1 and (b) EOF2; composite 500-hPa geopotential height anomalies for the (c) positive significant EOF1 years, (d) positive significant EOF2 years, (e) negative significant EOF1 years, and (f) negative significant EOF2 years. The shading represents significance above the 90% confidence level

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图 8 模式里叠加的(a)EOF1、(b)EOF2对应的暖池区域的海温强迫场。模式得到的敏感试验结果(敏感试验与控制试验的差值)中(c、d)降水场(mm/d)、(e、f)10 m风速场(矢量，单位：m/s)和SLP场(填色，单位：hPa)：(c、e)叠加EOF1海温强迫场；(d、f)叠加EOF2海温强迫场

Figure 8. Forcing SST of warm pool area that relates (a) EOF1 and (b) EOF2 that added to the model separately. The results of sensitivity experiments (the differences between the sensitivity experiments and control experiments) of (c, d) precipitation (mm/d), (e, f) 10-m height wind field (vectors, units: m/s) and SLP field (colored, units: hPa): (c, e) The forcing SST of EOF1 added to the model; (e, f) the forcing SST of EOF2 added to the model

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图 9 (a、b)IOD独立发生年中国冬季降水(mm/d)距平合成和(c、d)IOD与ENSO联合发生年中国冬季降水距平合成：(a、c)IOD正位相年；(b、d)IOD负位相年。图中阴影部分为通过了90%置信度的显著性检验的区域

Figure 9. Composite precipitation anomalies (mm/d) for (a, b) independent IOD years and (c, d) the joint occurrence years of ENSO and IOD: (a, c) IOD positive phase years; (b, d) IOD negative phase years. The shading represents significance above the 90% confidence level

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表 1 根据DMI变化曲线挑选出的IOD显著位相年份

Table 1. The selected IOD years according to the time series of DMI

IOD显著正位相年份(25年)	IOD显著负位相年份(25年)
1902年、1904年、1908年、1915年、1923年、1925年、1929年、1935年、1941年、1944年、1945年、1946年、1957年、1961年、1963年、1967年、1972年、1977年、1982年、1987年、1991年、1994年、1997年、2006年、2012年	1901年、1906年、1909年、1910年、1916年、1920年、1921年、1928年、1933年、1938年、1943年、1954年、1960年、1964年、1970年、1971年、1975年、1981年、1984年、1990年、1992年、1996年、1998年、2005年、2010年

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