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1961~2014年中国冬季极端低温变化特征分析

谢星旸 游庆龙 王雨枭

谢星旸, 游庆龙, 王雨枭. 1961~2014年中国冬季极端低温变化特征分析[J]. 气候与环境研究, 2018, 23(4): 429-441. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2017.17034
引用本文: 谢星旸, 游庆龙, 王雨枭. 1961~2014年中国冬季极端低温变化特征分析[J]. 气候与环境研究, 2018, 23(4): 429-441. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2017.17034
Xingyang XIE, Qinglong YOU, Yuxiao WANG. Changes in Extreme Low Temperature in China in the Winters from 1961 to 2014[J]. Climatic and Environmental Research, 2018, 23(4): 429-441. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2017.17034
Citation: Xingyang XIE, Qinglong YOU, Yuxiao WANG. Changes in Extreme Low Temperature in China in the Winters from 1961 to 2014[J]. Climatic and Environmental Research, 2018, 23(4): 429-441. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2017.17034

1961~2014年中国冬季极端低温变化特征分析

doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2017.17034
基金项目: 

国家重点研发计划项目 2016YFA0601700

江苏省杰出青年基金项目 BK20140047

详细信息
    作者简介:

    谢星旸, 男, 1993年出生, 硕士研究生, 主要从事极端气温的研究。E-mail:xxyfred@126.com

    通讯作者:

    游庆龙, E-mail:qinglong.you@nuist.edu.cn

  • 中图分类号: P467

Changes in Extreme Low Temperature in China in the Winters from 1961 to 2014

Funds: 

National Key Research and Development Program of China 2016YFA0601700

Jiangsu Natural Science Funds for Distinguished Young Scholar BK20140047

  • 摘要: 利用中国691个无缺测站点的经均一化处理及质量控制的逐日最高、最低气温资料,基于冷昼日数、冷夜日数、霜冻日数、冰冻日数、月最低气温极大值以及月最低气温极小值等6个由世界气象组织定义的极端气温指数,分析了1961~2014年中国冬季的极端低温变化特征。结果表明:冷昼日数、冷夜日数、霜冻日数以及冰冻日数在全国大部分地区均呈现下降的趋势,下降趋势较为明显的区域集中在东北南部、华北、西北东部、华东、华中、西南及高原地区,全国整体上下降幅度分别为-0.9 d/10 a、-1.7 d/10 a、-1.5 d/10a和-1.4 d/10 a。最低气温极大值和最低气温极小值在全国范围内则主要呈现上升的趋势,全国整体上分别为0.4℃/10 a和0.6℃/10 a;极端低温天数在20世纪60年代至70年代中后期呈现波动状,随后自20世纪70年代末80年代初至21世纪初呈明显下降趋势,从2006年左右以后其下降趋势较之前有所减缓,是对全球变暖减缓背景下的气候响应;与其他时间段相比,20世纪60年代至70年代为冬季极端低温事件较为频发的时间段,这可能与该时段陆地冷高压频繁活动有关。
  • 图  1  全国691个站点的分区分布(图中数值表示各个区域所包含的站点数)

    Figure  1.  The zoned distribution of the 691 stations in China (the values represent the numbers of stations contained in each region)

    图  2  1961~2014年中国冬季各极端低温指数的趋势值空间分布(实心三角形表示通过95%显著性检验的站点):(a)冷昼日数;(b)冷夜日数;(c)霜冻日数;(d)冰冻日数;(e)月最低气温极大值;(f)月最低气温极小值

    Figure  2.  Spatial patterns of trends for indices of low temperature extreme in China in the winters during 1961−2014 (solid triangles represent values at/above the 95% confidence level): (a) Cool days (TX10p); (b) cool nights (TN10p); (c) frost days (FD); (d) ice days (ID); (e) maximum daily minimum temperature in month (TNx); (f) minimum daily minimum temperature in month (TNn)

    图  3  1961~2014年冬季中国各区域的冷昼日数时间序列:(a)东北;(b)华北;(c)西北;(d)华东;(e)华中;(f)华南;(g)西南;(h)高原;(i)全国平均。黑色直线为线性回归趋势线

    Figure  3.  Time series of TX10p in various regions of China in the winters from 1961 to 2014: (a) Northeast China; (b) North China; (c) Northwest China; (d) East China; (e) central China; (f) South China; (g) Southwest China; (h) the Tibetan Plateau; (i) nationwide mean. Black beelines represent linear regression trends

    图  4  图 3,但为冷夜日数时间序列

    Figure  4.  Same as Fig. 3, but for TN10p

    图  5  图 3,但为霜冻日数时间序列

    Figure  5.  Same as Fig. 3, but for FD

    图  6  1961~2014年冬季中国各区域的冰冻日数时间序列:(a)东北;(b)华北;(c)西北;(d)华东;(e)华中;(f)西南;(g)高原;(h)全国平均。黑色直线为线性回归趋势线

    Figure  6.  Time series of ID in various regions of China in the winters from 1961 to 2014: (a) Northeast China; (b) North China; (c) Northwest China; (d) East China; (e) central China; (f) Southwest China; (g) the Tibetan Plateau; (h) nationwide mean. Black beelines represent linear regression trends

    图  7  图 3,但为月最低气温极大值时间序列

    Figure  7.  Same as Fig. 3, but for TNx

    图  8  图 3,但为月最低气温极小值时间序列

    Figure  8.  Same as Fig. 3, but for TNn

    表  1  极端气温指数

    Table  1.   Indices of temperature extreme

    分类 名称 代码 意义 单位
    相对阈值指数 冷昼日数 TX10p 日最高气温小于10%分位值的日数 d
    冷夜日数 TN10p 日最低气温小于10%分位值的日数 d
    绝对阈值指数 霜冻日数 FD 每月中日最低气温小于0 ℃的天数 d
    冰冻日数 ID 每月中日最高气温小于0 ℃的天数 d
    极值指数 月最低气温极大值 TNx 每月中日最低气温的最大值
    月最低气温极小值 TNn 每月中日最低气温的最小值
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  2  1961~2014年冬季中国各区域极端低温指数变化趋势

    Table  2.   Trends of indices of temperature extreme in the regions of China in winter from 1961 to 2014

    变化趋势/d (10 a)−1 变化趋势/℃(10 a)−1
    冷昼日数 冷夜日数 霜冻日数 冰冻日数 月最低气温极大值 月最低气温极小值
    东北 −0.8 −1.6 −0.1 −0.9 0.4 0.7
    华北 −1 −1.9 −0.4 −1.7 0.4 0.7
    西北 −0.9 −1.5 −0.2 −1.4 0.5 0.5
    华东 −0.9 −2 −3 −0.5 0.4 0.5
    华中 −0.5 −1.7 −2.5 −0.5 0.3 0.4
    华南 −0.2 −1.7 −0.3 0.2 0.3
    西南 −0.5 −1.5 −1.5 −0.3 0.2 0.3
    高原 −1.2 −2 −0.2 −2.3 0.5 0.6
    全国 −0.4 −0.8 −0.3 −0.5 0.2 0.2
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  3  1998~2014年冬季中国各区域极端低温指数变化趋势

    Table  3.   Trends of indices of temperature extreme in the regions of China in winter from 1998 to 2014

    变化趋势/d (10 a)−1 变化趋势/℃(10 a)−1
    冷昼日数 冷夜日数 霜冻日数 冰冻日数 月最低气温极大值 月最低气温极小值
    东北 0.42 0.4 0.08 3.54 −0.35 −0.58
    华北 0.85 0.64 0.48 4.16 −0.14 −0.78
    西北 2.82 1.44 −0.07 5.67 −0.22 −0.61
    华东 2.85 1.23 4.86 0.53 −0.39 −0.51
    华中 1.36 1.28 3.48 0.55 −0.14 −0.25
    华南 4.76 2.29 0.01 −0.92 −0.26
    西南 2.09 1.23 1.59 0.46 −0.07 −0.1
    高原 0.74 0.51 −0.35 −3.36 0.73 −0.02
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  4  中国极端气温的部分研究

    Table  4.   Partial studies of temperature extremes in China

    研究时段 区域选定 站点数量 是否分析WMO极端气温指数 参考文献
    1951~1990年 中国 369 任福民等(1998)
    1951~2000年 中国 241 王翠花等(2003)
    1951~2010年 中国 731 王晓娟等(2013)
    1955~2005年 中国 234 张宁等(2008)
    1955~2006年 中国 275 付冬雪等(2011)
    1960~2012年 中国 542 肖冰霜等(2016)
    1961~2000年 中国 166 杨萍等(2010)
    1961~2006年 中国 599 刘雅星等(2010)
    1961~2008年 中国 526 周雅清和任国玉(2010)
    1961~2008年 中国 752 赵俊虎等(2011)
    1961~2009年 中国 696 钱忠华等(2011)
    1961~2010年 中国 487 黄菲等(2014a)
    1961~2014年 中国 691 本文
    下载: 导出CSV
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出版历程
  • 收稿日期:  2017-03-05
  • 网络出版日期:  2017-07-26
  • 刊出日期:  2018-07-20

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