1961~2014年中国冬季极端低温变化特征分析

谢星旸; 游庆龙; 王雨枭

doi:10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2017.17034

1961~2014年中国冬季极端低温变化特征分析

doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2017.17034

谢星旸^{1, 2, 3,},
游庆龙^{1, 2, 3, ,},
王雨枭^{1, 2, 3}

1.
南京信息工程大学气象灾害教育部重点实验室, 南京 210044
2.
南京信息工程大学中英气候变化与评估研究所, 南京 210044
3.
南京信息工程大学气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心, 南京 210044

基金项目:

国家重点研发计划项目 2016YFA0601700

江苏省杰出青年基金项目 BK20140047

详细信息

作者简介:
谢星旸, 男, 1993年出生, 硕士研究生, 主要从事极端气温的研究。E-mail:xxyfred@126.com

通讯作者:
游庆龙, E-mail:qinglong.you@nuist.edu.cn

中图分类号: P467
计量
- 文章访问数: 1298
- HTML全文浏览量: 59
- PDF下载量: 940
- 被引次数: 0
出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2017-03-05
- 网络出版日期: 2017-07-26
- 刊出日期: 2018-07-20

Changes in Extreme Low Temperature in China in the Winters from 1961 to 2014

Xingyang XIE^{1, 2, 3
,},
Qinglong YOU^{1, 2, 3
, ,},
Yuxiao WANG^{1, 2, 3}

1.
Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster, Ministry of Education, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044
2.
Institute of Climate Change and Evaluation between China and UK, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044
3.
Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044

Funds:

National Key Research and Development Program of China 2016YFA0601700

Jiangsu Natural Science Funds for Distinguished Young Scholar BK20140047

摘要

摘要: 利用中国691个无缺测站点的经均一化处理及质量控制的逐日最高、最低气温资料，基于冷昼日数、冷夜日数、霜冻日数、冰冻日数、月最低气温极大值以及月最低气温极小值等6个由世界气象组织定义的极端气温指数，分析了1961~2014年中国冬季的极端低温变化特征。结果表明：冷昼日数、冷夜日数、霜冻日数以及冰冻日数在全国大部分地区均呈现下降的趋势，下降趋势较为明显的区域集中在东北南部、华北、西北东部、华东、华中、西南及高原地区，全国整体上下降幅度分别为-0.9 d/10 a、-1.7 d/10 a、-1.5 d/10a和-1.4 d/10 a。最低气温极大值和最低气温极小值在全国范围内则主要呈现上升的趋势，全国整体上分别为0.4℃/10 a和0.6℃/10 a；极端低温天数在20世纪60年代至70年代中后期呈现波动状，随后自20世纪70年代末80年代初至21世纪初呈明显下降趋势，从2006年左右以后其下降趋势较之前有所减缓，是对全球变暖减缓背景下的气候响应；与其他时间段相比，20世纪60年代至70年代为冬季极端低温事件较为频发的时间段，这可能与该时段陆地冷高压频繁活动有关。
- 冬季 /
- 极端气温指数 /
- 变化特征
Abstract: Based on the six indices of temperature extreme defined by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), this study discusses the extreme low temperature change in China in the winters from 1961 to 2014 by analyzing the daily maximum temperature (Tmax) and minimum temperature (Tmin) data at 691 stations that have no missing values and pass the homogeneity processing and quality control checks. The results show that the numbers of cool days, cool nights, frost days, and ice days have decreased in most part of China, particularly in the southern part of Northwest China, North China, the eastern part of Northwest China, East China, central China, Southwest China, and plateau regions with the trends of -0.9 d/10 a, -1.7 d/10 a, -1.5d/10 a, and -1.4 d/10 a, respectively. The maximum Tmin and minimum Tmin in the winter have increased across the country with the trends of 0.4℃/10 a and 0.6℃/10 a, respectively. The number of days of extreme low temperature fluctuated from the 1960s to the mid-1970s, and then exhibited a downward trend from the late 1970s and the early 1980s to the beginning of the 21th century while the declining trend started to slow down since 2006, which is a response to the global warming hiatus. Compared with other periods, the period from the 1960s to the 1970s represented a period with higher occurrence frequency of extreme low temperature events in the winter, which is possibly associated with the frequency and intensity of cold high pressure system over the land.
- Winter /
- Indices of temperature extreme /
- Changes

HTML全文

图 1 全国691个站点的分区分布(图中数值表示各个区域所包含的站点数)

Figure 1. The zoned distribution of the 691 stations in China (the values represent the numbers of stations contained in each region)

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 2 1961~2014年中国冬季各极端低温指数的趋势值空间分布(实心三角形表示通过95%显著性检验的站点)：(a)冷昼日数；(b)冷夜日数；(c)霜冻日数；(d)冰冻日数；(e)月最低气温极大值；(f)月最低气温极小值

Figure 2. Spatial patterns of trends for indices of low temperature extreme in China in the winters during 1961−2014 (solid triangles represent values at/above the 95% confidence level): (a) Cool days (TX10p); (b) cool nights (TN10p); (c) frost days (FD); (d) ice days (ID); (e) maximum daily minimum temperature in month (TNx); (f) minimum daily minimum temperature in month (TNn)

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 3 1961~2014年冬季中国各区域的冷昼日数时间序列：(a)东北；(b)华北；(c)西北；(d)华东；(e)华中；(f)华南；(g)西南；(h)高原；(i)全国平均。黑色直线为线性回归趋势线

Figure 3. Time series of TX10p in various regions of China in the winters from 1961 to 2014: (a) Northeast China; (b) North China; (c) Northwest China; (d) East China; (e) central China; (f) South China; (g) Southwest China; (h) the Tibetan Plateau; (i) nationwide mean. Black beelines represent linear regression trends

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 4 同图 3，但为冷夜日数时间序列

Figure 4. Same as Fig. 3, but for TN10p

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 5 同图 3，但为霜冻日数时间序列

Figure 5. Same as Fig. 3, but for FD

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 6 1961~2014年冬季中国各区域的冰冻日数时间序列：(a)东北；(b)华北；(c)西北；(d)华东；(e)华中；(f)西南；(g)高原；(h)全国平均。黑色直线为线性回归趋势线

Figure 6. Time series of ID in various regions of China in the winters from 1961 to 2014: (a) Northeast China; (b) North China; (c) Northwest China; (d) East China; (e) central China; (f) Southwest China; (g) the Tibetan Plateau; (h) nationwide mean. Black beelines represent linear regression trends

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 7 同图 3，但为月最低气温极大值时间序列

Figure 7. Same as Fig. 3, but for TNx

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 8 同图 3，但为月最低气温极小值时间序列

Figure 8. Same as Fig. 3, but for TNn

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

表 1 极端气温指数

Table 1. Indices of temperature extreme

分类	名称	代码	意义	单位
相对阈值指数	冷昼日数	TX10p	日最高气温小于10%分位值的日数	d
	冷夜日数	TN10p	日最低气温小于10%分位值的日数	d
绝对阈值指数	霜冻日数	FD	每月中日最低气温小于0 ℃的天数	d
	冰冻日数	ID	每月中日最高气温小于0 ℃的天数	d
极值指数	月最低气温极大值	TNx	每月中日最低气温的最大值	℃
	月最低气温极小值	TNn	每月中日最低气温的最小值	℃

下载: 导出CSV

表 2 1961~2014年冬季中国各区域极端低温指数变化趋势

Table 2. Trends of indices of temperature extreme in the regions of China in winter from 1961 to 2014

	变化趋势/d (10 a)⁻¹				变化趋势/℃(10 a)⁻¹
	冷昼日数	冷夜日数	霜冻日数	冰冻日数	月最低气温极大值	月最低气温极小值
东北	−0.8	−1.6	−0.1	−0.9	0.4	0.7
华北	−1	−1.9	−0.4	−1.7	0.4	0.7
西北	−0.9	−1.5	−0.2	−1.4	0.5	0.5
华东	−0.9	−2	−3	−0.5	0.4	0.5
华中	−0.5	−1.7	−2.5	−0.5	0.3	0.4
华南	−0.2	−1.7	−0.3	—	0.2	0.3
西南	−0.5	−1.5	−1.5	−0.3	0.2	0.3
高原	−1.2	−2	−0.2	−2.3	0.5	0.6
全国	−0.4	−0.8	−0.3	−0.5	0.2	0.2

下载: 导出CSV

表 3 1998~2014年冬季中国各区域极端低温指数变化趋势

Table 3. Trends of indices of temperature extreme in the regions of China in winter from 1998 to 2014

	变化趋势/d (10 a)⁻¹				变化趋势/℃(10 a)⁻¹
	冷昼日数	冷夜日数	霜冻日数	冰冻日数	月最低气温极大值	月最低气温极小值
东北	0.42	0.4	0.08	3.54	−0.35	−0.58
华北	0.85	0.64	0.48	4.16	−0.14	−0.78
西北	2.82	1.44	−0.07	5.67	−0.22	−0.61
华东	2.85	1.23	4.86	0.53	−0.39	−0.51
华中	1.36	1.28	3.48	0.55	−0.14	−0.25
华南	4.76	2.29	0.01	—	−0.92	−0.26
西南	2.09	1.23	1.59	0.46	−0.07	−0.1
高原	0.74	0.51	−0.35	−3.36	0.73	−0.02

下载: 导出CSV

表 4 中国极端气温的部分研究

Table 4. Partial studies of temperature extremes in China

研究时段	区域选定	站点数量	是否分析WMO极端气温指数	参考文献
1951~1990年	中国	369	否	任福民等(1998)
1951~2000年	中国	241	否	王翠花等(2003)
1951~2010年	中国	731	否	王晓娟等(2013)
1955~2005年	中国	234	否	张宁等(2008)
1955~2006年	中国	275	否	付冬雪等(2011)
1960~2012年	中国	542	是	肖冰霜等(2016)
1961~2000年	中国	166	是	杨萍等(2010)
1961~2006年	中国	599	否	刘雅星等(2010)
1961~2008年	中国	526	是	周雅清和任国玉(2010)
1961~2008年	中国	752	否	赵俊虎等(2011)
1961~2009年	中国	696	否	钱忠华等(2011)
1961~2010年	中国	487	否	黄菲等(2014a)
1961~2014年	中国	691	是	本文

下载: 导出CSV

参考文献(44)

[1]	Chen H S, Liu L, Zhu Y J. 2013. Possible linkage between winter extreme low temperature events over China and synoptic-scale transient wave activity[J]. Science China Earth Sciences, 56 (7):1266-1280, doi:10. 1007/s11430-012-4442-z.
[2]	陈海山, 孙照渤, 闵锦忠. 1999.欧亚大陆冬季积雪异常与东亚冬季风及中国冬季气温的关系[J].南京气象学院学报, 22 (4):609-615. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1674-7097.1999.04.007 Chen Haishan, Sun Zhaobo, Min Jinzhong. 1999. The relationships between Eurasian winter snow cover anomaly and EAWM, China winter air temperature[J]. Journal of Nanjing Institute of Meteorology (in Chinese), 22 (4):609-615, doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1674-7097.1999.04.007.
[3]	丁园圆, 缪启龙, 王勇. 2010.中国北方冬季极端温度的变化及其与AO相关分析[J].干旱区资源与环境, 24 (5):95-101. doi: 10.13448/j.cnki.jalre.2010.05.003 Ding Yuanyuan, Miao Qilong, Wang Yong. 2010. Variations of the winter extreme temperatures over northern China and their relationships with the Arctic Oscillation[J]. Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment (in Chinese), 24 (5):95-101, doi: 10.13448/j.cnki.jalre.2010.05.003.
[4]	付冬雪, 孙照渤, 李忠贤, 等. 2011. 1955~2006冬半年中国极端低温的时空变化特征[J].气象科学, 31 (3):274-281. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1009-0827.2011.03.005 Fu Dongxue, Sun Zhaobo, Li Zhongxian, et al. 2011. Spatial and temporal features of China extreme minimum temperature in winter half year during 1955-2006[J]. Journal of the Meteorological Sciences (in Chinese), 31 (3):274-281, doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1009-0827.2011.03.005.
[5]	Horton D E, Johnson N C, Singh D, et al. 2015. Contribution of changes in atmospheric circulation patterns to extreme temperature trends[J]. Nature, 522 (7557):465-469, doi: 10.1038/nature14550.
[6]	胡蓓蓓, 黄菲, 晋鹏. 2015.中国冬季极端低温事件与海温和海冰的关系[J].气候变化研究快报, 4 (3):130-141. doi: 10.12677/CCRL.2015.43015 Hu Beibei, Huang Fei, Jin Peng. 2015. The relationship between winter extreme minimum temperature events and sea surface temperature and sea ice in China[J]. Climate Change Research Letters (in Chinese), 4 (3):130-141, doi:10. 12677/CCRL.2015.43015.
[7]	Hu C D, Yang S, Wu Q G. 2015. An optimal index for measuring the effect of East Asian winter monsoon on China winter temperature[J]. Climate Dyn., 45 (9-10):2571-2589, doi: 10.1007/s00382-015-2493-5.
[8]	Huang D Q, Qian Y F, Zhu J. 2010. Trends of temperature extremes in China and their relationship with global temperature anomalies[J]. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 27 (4):937-946, doi: 10.1007/s00376-009-9085-4.
[9]	黄菲, 胡蓓蓓, 周晓, 等. 2014a.中国冬季极端低温事件的多尺度特征[J].中国海洋大学学报, 44 (10):42-50. http://www.cqvip.com/QK/92605A/201410/663937689.html Huang Fei, Hu Beibei, Zhou Xiao, et al. 2014. Multi-scale variations of winter extreme minimum temperature in China[J]. Periodical of Ocean University of China (in Chinese), 44 (10):42-50. http://www.cqvip.com/QK/92605A/201410/663937689.html
[10]	黄菲, 狄慧, 胡蓓蓓, 等. 2014b.北极海冰的年代际转型及极端低温变化特征[J].气候变化研究快报, 3 (2):39-45. doi: 10.12677/CCRL.2014.32007 Huang Fei, Di Hui, Hu Beibei, et al. 2014. Decadal regime shift of arctic sea ice and corresponding changes of extreme low temperature[J]. Climate Change Research Letters (in Chinese), 3 (2):39-45, doi: 10.12677/CCRL.2014.32007.
[11]	IPCC. 2013. Climate Change 2013:The Physical Science Basic. Contribution of Working Group Ⅰ to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change[M]. Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, USA:Cambridge University Press.
[12]	Jones P D, Horton E B, Folland C K, et al. 1999. The use of indices to identify changes in climatic extremes[J]. Climatic Change, 42 (1):131-149, doi: 10.1023/A:1005468316392.
[13]	康丽华, 陈文, 王林, 等. 2009.我国冬季气温的年际变化及其与大气环流和海温异常的关系[J].气候与环境研究, 14 (1):45-53. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2009.01.05 Kang Lihua, Chen Wen, Wang Lin, et al. 2009. Interannual variations of winter temperature in China and their relationship with the atmospheric circulation and sea surface temperature[J]. Climatic and Environmental Research (in Chinese), 14 (1):45-53, doi:10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585. 2009.01.05.
[14]	Li Q X, Yang S, Xu W H, et al. 2015. China experiencing the recent warming hiatus[J]. Geophysical Research Letters, 42 (3):889-898, doi: 10.1002/2014GL062773.
[15]	刘吉峰, 李世杰, 丁裕国, 等. 2006.近几十年我国极端气温变化特征分区方法探讨[J].山地学报, 24 (3):291-297. http://www.irgrid.ac.cn/handle/1471x/776159 Liu Jifeng, Li Shijie, Ding Yuguo, et al. 2006. The discussion of the characteristic zoning method of extreme temperature in China in recent decades[J]. Journal of Mountain Science (in Chinese), 24 (3):291-297. http://www.irgrid.ac.cn/handle/1471x/776159
[16]	刘晴晴, 王盘兴, 徐祥德, 等. 2011.蒙古高压一组环流指数及与中国同期气候异常关系分析[J].热带气象学报, 27 (6):889-898. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-4965.2011.06.012 Liu Qingqing, Wang P X, Xu X D, et al. 2011. A group of circulation indices of Mongolia High and analysis of its relationship with simultaneous anomaly in the climate of China[J]. Journal of Tropical Meteorology (in Chinese), 27 (6):889-898, doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-4965.2011.06.012.
[17]	Liu X D, Chen B D. 2000. Climatic warming in the Tibetan plateau during recent decades[J]. International Journal of Climatology, 20 (14):1729-1742, doi:10.1002/1097-0088(20001130)20:14<1729::AID-JOC556>3.0.CO;2-Y.
[18]	Liu X D, Yin Z Y, Shao X M, et al. 2006. Temporal trends and variability of daily maximum and minimum, extreme temperature events, and growing season length over the eastern and central Tibetan Plateau during 1961-2003[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research, 111 (D19):D19109, doi: 10.1029/2005JD006915.
[19]	刘雅星, 范广洲, 董一平, 等. 2010.近46年中国冬季日均气温及极端温度的变化[J].成都信息工程学院学报, 25 (3):286-292. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1671-1742.2010.03.012 Liu Yaxing, Fan Guangzhou, Dong Yiping, et al. 2010. Variations of winter daily average temperature and extreme temperature in the recently 46 years in China[J]. Journal of Chengdu University of Information Technology (in Chinese), 25 (3):286-292, doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1671-1742.2010.03.012.
[20]	Manton M J, Della-Marta P M, Haylock M R, et al. 2001. Trends in extreme daily rainfall and temperature in Southeast Asia and the South Pacific:1961-1998[J]. International Journal of Climatology, 21 (3):269-284, doi: 10.1002/joc.610.
[21]	苗青, 巩远发, 邓锐捷, 等. 2016.北半球中高纬度低频振荡对2012/2013年冬季中国东北极端低温事件的影响[J].大气科学, 40 (4):817-830. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1508.15189 Miao Qing, Gong Yuanfa, Deng Ruijie, et al. 2016. Impacts of the low-frequency oscillation over the extra-tropics of the Northern Hemisphere on the extreme low temperature event in Northeast China in the winter of 2012/2013[J]. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences (in Chinese), 40 (4):817-830, doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1508.15189.
[22]	Peterson T C, Manton M J. 2008. Monitoring changes in climate extremes:A tale of international collaboration[J]. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 89 (9):1266-1271, doi: 10.1175/2008BAMS2501.1.
[23]	钱忠华, 侯威, 杨萍, 等. 2011.最概然温度背景下不同气候态中国夏冬季极端温度事件时空分布特征[J].物理学报, 60 (10):109204. doi: 10.7498/aps.60.109204 Qian Zhonghua, Hou Wei, Yang Ping, et al. 2011. Characteristics of spatiotemporal distribution of extreme temperature events over China mainland in different climate states against the backdrop of most probable temperature[J]. Acta Physica Sinica (in Chinese), 60 (10):109204, doi: 10.7498/aps.60.109204.
[24]	任福民, 翟盘茂. 1998. 1951~1990年中国极端气温变化分析[J].大气科学, 22 (2):217-227. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1998.02.10 Ren Fumin, Zhai Panmao. 1998. Study on changes of China's extreme temperatures during 1951-1990[J]. Scientia Atmospherica Sinica (in Chinese), 22 (2):217-227, doi:10.3878/j.issn. 1006-9895.1998.02.10.
[25]	任国玉, 陈峪, 邹旭恺, 等. 2010.综合极端气候指数的定义和趋势分析[J].气候与环境研究, 15 (4):354-364. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2010.04.02 Ren Guoyu, Chen Yu, Zou Xukai, et al. 2010. Definition and trend analysis of an integrated extreme climatic index[J]. Climatic and Environmental Research (in Chinese), 15 (4):354-364, doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2010.04.02.
[26]	任国玉, 初子莹, 周雅清, 等. 2005.中国气温变化研究最新进展[J].气候与环境研究, 10 (4):701-716. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1006-9585.2005.04.001 Ren Guoyu, Chu Ziying, Zhou Yaqing, et al. 2005. Recent progresses in studies of regional temperature changes in China[J]. Climatic and Environmental Research (in Chinese), 10 (4):701-716, doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1006-9585.2005.04.001.
[27]	Ren G Y, Zhou Y Q. 2014. Urbanization effect on trends of extreme temperature indices of national stations over mainland China, 1961-2008[J]. J. Climate, 27 (6):2340-2360, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00393.1.
[28]	沙万英, 邵雪梅, 黄玫. 2002. 20世纪80年代以来中国的气候变暖及其对自然区域界线的影响[J].中国科学(D辑), 32 (4):317-326. doi: 10.1360/02yd9107 Sha Wanying, Shao Xuemei, Huang Mei. 2002. Climate warming and its impact on natural regional boundaries in China in the 1980s[J]. Science in China Series D:Earth Sciences, 45 (12):1099-1113, doi: 10.1360/02yd9107.
[29]	沈永平, 王国亚. 2013. IPCC第一工作组第五次评估报告对全球气候变化认知的最新科学要点[J].冰川冻土, 35 (5):1068-1076. doi: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-0240.2013.0120 Shen Yongping, Wang Guoya. 2013. Key findings and assessment results of IPCC WGI fifth assessment report[J]. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology (in Chinese), 35 (5):1068-1076, doi: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-0240.2013.0120.
[30]	王翠花, 李雄, 缪启龙. 2003.中国近50年来日最低气温变化特征研究[J].地理科学, 23 (4):441-447. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-0690.2003.04.009 Wang Cuihua, Li Xiong, Miu Qilong. 2003. Variety characteristics of daily minimum air temperature in China in recent 50 years[J]. Scientia Geographica Sinica (in Chinese), 23 (4):441-447, doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-0690.2003.04.009.
[31]	王迪, 侯亚红, 何金海, 等. 2014. 不同地区和季节的温度对全球变暖减缓的响应[C]//中国气象学会年会: S15副热带气象及生态环境影响. 北京: 中国气象学会. Wang Di, Hou Yahong, He Jinhai, et al. 2014. Response of temperature to global warming hiatus in different regions and seasons[C]//The 31th Annual Meeting of Meteorological Society of China (in Chinese):S15 Subtropical Meteorological and Ecological Impact. Beijing:Chinese Meteorological Society.
[32]	王琼, 张明军, 王圣杰, 等. 2013. 1962-2011年长江流域极端气温事件分析[J].地理学报, 68 (5):611-625. doi: 10.11821/xb201305004 Wang Qiong, Zhang Mingjun, Wang Shengjie, et al. 2013. Extreme temperature events in Yangtze River basin during 1962-2011[J]. Acta Geograph Sinica (in Chinese), 68 (5):611-625, doi: 10.11821/xb201305004.
[33]	王晓娟, 龚志强, 任福民, 等. 2012. 1960-2009年中国冬季区域性极端低温事件的时空特征[J].气候变化研究进展, 8 (1):8-15. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1673-1719.2012.01.002 Wang Xiaojuan, Gong Zhiqiang, Ren Fumin, et al. 2012. Spatial/temporal characteristics of China regional extreme low temperature events in winter during 1960-2009[J]. Climate Change Research (in Chinese), 8 (1):8-15, doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1673-1719.2012.01.002.
[34]	王晓娟, 沈柏竹, 龚志强, 等. 2013.中国冬季区域性极端低温事件分类及其与气候指数极端性的联系[J].物理学报, 62 (22):229201. doi: 10.7498/aps.62.229201 Wang Xiaojuan, Shen Baizhu, Gong Zhiqiang, et al. 2013. The classification of winter regional extreme low temperature events in China and their corresponding relationship to climatic indices extreme anomaly[J]. Acta Physica Sinica (in Chinese), 62 (22):229201, doi: 10.7498/aps.62.229201.
[35]	魏凤英. 1999.现代气候统计诊断与预测技术[M].北京:气象出版社, 296pp. Wei Fengying. 1999. Modern Climatic Statistical Diagnosis and Forecasting Technology (in Chinese)[M]. Beijing:China Meteorological Press, 296pp.
[36]	肖冰霜, 马玉霞, 赵天保, 等. 2016.基于均一化资料的中国大陆极端温度的长期趋势[J].气象, 42 (3):339-346. doi: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2016.3.009 Xiao Bingshuang, Ma Yuxia, Zhao Tianbao, et al. 2016. Long-term trends in extreme temperature over China mainland based on homogenized dataset[J]. Meteorological Monthly (in Chinese), 42 (3):339-346, doi:10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526. 2016.3.009.
[37]	Xu W H, Li Q X, Wang X L, et al. 2013. Homogenization of Chinese daily surface air temperatures and analysis of trends in the extreme temperature indices[J]. J. Geophys. Res., 118 (17):9708-9720, doi:10.1002/jgrd. 50791.
[38]	杨萍, 刘伟东, 王启光, 等. 2010.近40年我国极端温度变化趋势和季节特征[J].应用气象学报, 21 (1):29-36. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1001-7313.2010.01.004 Yang Ping, Liu Weidong, Wang Qiguang, et al. 2010. The climatic change trend and seasonal characteristics of daily temperature extremes in China for the latest 40 years[J]. Journal of Applied Meteorological Science (in Chinese), 21 (1):29-36, doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1001-7313.2010.01.004.
[39]	You Q D, Ren G Y, Fraedrich K, et al. 2013. Winter temperature extremes in China and their possible causes[J]. International Journal of Climatology, 33 (6):1444-1455, doi: 10.1002/joc.3525.
[40]	You Q L, Kang S C, Aguilar E, et al. 2008. Changes in daily climate extremes in the eastern and central Tibetan Plateau during 1961-2005[J]. J. Geophys. Res., 113 (D7):D07101, doi: 10.1029/2007JD009389.
[41]	张婧雯, 李栋梁, 柳艳菊. 2014.北半球极涡新特征及其对中国冬季气温的影响[J].高原气象, 33 (3):721-732. doi: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2013.00044 Zhang Jingwen, Li Dongliang, Liu Yanjiu. 2014. New features of polar vortex and its impact on winter temperature of China[J]. Plateau Meteorology (in Chinese), 33 (3):721-732, doi: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2013.00044.
[42]	张宁, 孙照渤, 曾刚. 2008. 1955-2005年中国极端气温的变化[J].南京气象学院学报, 31 (1):123-128. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTotal-DQXK802.009.htm Zhang Ning, Sun Zhaobo, Zeng Gang. 2008. Change of extreme temperatures in China during 1955-2005[J]. Journal of Nanjing Institute of Meteorology (in Chinese), 31 (1):123-128. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTotal-DQXK802.009.htm
[43]	赵俊虎, 封国林, 张世轩, 等. 2011.近48年中国的季节变化与极端温度事件的联系[J].物理学报, 60 (9):099205. http://mall.cnki.net/magazine/Article/CJLY201305019.htm Zhao Junhu, Feng Guolin, Zhang Shixuan, et al. 2011. Seasonal changes in China during recent 48 years and their relationship with temperature extremes[J]. Acta Physica Sinica (in Chinese), 60 (9):099205. http://mall.cnki.net/magazine/Article/CJLY201305019.htm
[44]	周雅清, 任国玉. 2010.中国大陆1956~2008年极端气温事件变化特征分析[J].气候与环境研究, 15 (4):406-417. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2010.04.08 Zhou Y, Ren G Y. 2010. Variation characteristics of extreme temperature indices in mainland China during 1956-2008[J]. Climatic and Environmental Research (in Chinese), 15 (4):405-417, doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2010.04.08.