1961~2014年中国冬季极端低温变化特征分析

谢星旸; 游庆龙; 王雨枭

doi:10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2017.17034

1961~2014年中国冬季极端低温变化特征分析

doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2017.17034

谢星旸^{1, 2, 3,},
游庆龙^{1, 2, 3, ,},
王雨枭^{1, 2, 3}

1.
南京信息工程大学气象灾害教育部重点实验室, 南京 210044
2.
南京信息工程大学中英气候变化与评估研究所, 南京 210044
3.
南京信息工程大学气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心, 南京 210044

基金项目:

国家重点研发计划项目 2016YFA0601700

江苏省杰出青年基金项目 BK20140047

详细信息

作者简介:
谢星旸, 男, 1993年出生, 硕士研究生, 主要从事极端气温的研究。E-mail:xxyfred@126.com

通讯作者:
游庆龙, E-mail:qinglong.you@nuist.edu.cn

中图分类号: P467
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出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2017-03-05
- 网络出版日期: 2017-07-26
- 刊出日期: 2018-07-20

Changes in Extreme Low Temperature in China in the Winters from 1961 to 2014

Xingyang XIE^{1, 2, 3
,},
Qinglong YOU^{1, 2, 3
, ,},
Yuxiao WANG^{1, 2, 3}

1.
Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster, Ministry of Education, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044
2.
Institute of Climate Change and Evaluation between China and UK, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044
3.
Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044

Funds:

National Key Research and Development Program of China 2016YFA0601700

Jiangsu Natural Science Funds for Distinguished Young Scholar BK20140047

摘要

摘要: 利用中国691个无缺测站点的经均一化处理及质量控制的逐日最高、最低气温资料，基于冷昼日数、冷夜日数、霜冻日数、冰冻日数、月最低气温极大值以及月最低气温极小值等6个由世界气象组织定义的极端气温指数，分析了1961~2014年中国冬季的极端低温变化特征。结果表明：冷昼日数、冷夜日数、霜冻日数以及冰冻日数在全国大部分地区均呈现下降的趋势，下降趋势较为明显的区域集中在东北南部、华北、西北东部、华东、华中、西南及高原地区，全国整体上下降幅度分别为-0.9 d/10 a、-1.7 d/10 a、-1.5 d/10a和-1.4 d/10 a。最低气温极大值和最低气温极小值在全国范围内则主要呈现上升的趋势，全国整体上分别为0.4℃/10 a和0.6℃/10 a；极端低温天数在20世纪60年代至70年代中后期呈现波动状，随后自20世纪70年代末80年代初至21世纪初呈明显下降趋势，从2006年左右以后其下降趋势较之前有所减缓，是对全球变暖减缓背景下的气候响应；与其他时间段相比，20世纪60年代至70年代为冬季极端低温事件较为频发的时间段，这可能与该时段陆地冷高压频繁活动有关。
- 冬季 /
- 极端气温指数 /
- 变化特征
Abstract: Based on the six indices of temperature extreme defined by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), this study discusses the extreme low temperature change in China in the winters from 1961 to 2014 by analyzing the daily maximum temperature (Tmax) and minimum temperature (Tmin) data at 691 stations that have no missing values and pass the homogeneity processing and quality control checks. The results show that the numbers of cool days, cool nights, frost days, and ice days have decreased in most part of China, particularly in the southern part of Northwest China, North China, the eastern part of Northwest China, East China, central China, Southwest China, and plateau regions with the trends of -0.9 d/10 a, -1.7 d/10 a, -1.5d/10 a, and -1.4 d/10 a, respectively. The maximum Tmin and minimum Tmin in the winter have increased across the country with the trends of 0.4℃/10 a and 0.6℃/10 a, respectively. The number of days of extreme low temperature fluctuated from the 1960s to the mid-1970s, and then exhibited a downward trend from the late 1970s and the early 1980s to the beginning of the 21th century while the declining trend started to slow down since 2006, which is a response to the global warming hiatus. Compared with other periods, the period from the 1960s to the 1970s represented a period with higher occurrence frequency of extreme low temperature events in the winter, which is possibly associated with the frequency and intensity of cold high pressure system over the land.
- Winter /
- Indices of temperature extreme /
- Changes

HTML全文

图 1 全国691个站点的分区分布(图中数值表示各个区域所包含的站点数)

Figure 1. The zoned distribution of the 691 stations in China (the values represent the numbers of stations contained in each region)

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图 2 1961~2014年中国冬季各极端低温指数的趋势值空间分布(实心三角形表示通过95%显著性检验的站点)：(a)冷昼日数；(b)冷夜日数；(c)霜冻日数；(d)冰冻日数；(e)月最低气温极大值；(f)月最低气温极小值

Figure 2. Spatial patterns of trends for indices of low temperature extreme in China in the winters during 1961−2014 (solid triangles represent values at/above the 95% confidence level): (a) Cool days (TX10p); (b) cool nights (TN10p); (c) frost days (FD); (d) ice days (ID); (e) maximum daily minimum temperature in month (TNx); (f) minimum daily minimum temperature in month (TNn)

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图 3 1961~2014年冬季中国各区域的冷昼日数时间序列：(a)东北；(b)华北；(c)西北；(d)华东；(e)华中；(f)华南；(g)西南；(h)高原；(i)全国平均。黑色直线为线性回归趋势线

Figure 3. Time series of TX10p in various regions of China in the winters from 1961 to 2014: (a) Northeast China; (b) North China; (c) Northwest China; (d) East China; (e) central China; (f) South China; (g) Southwest China; (h) the Tibetan Plateau; (i) nationwide mean. Black beelines represent linear regression trends

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图 4 同图 3，但为冷夜日数时间序列

Figure 4. Same as Fig. 3, but for TN10p

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图 5 同图 3，但为霜冻日数时间序列

Figure 5. Same as Fig. 3, but for FD

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图 6 1961~2014年冬季中国各区域的冰冻日数时间序列：(a)东北；(b)华北；(c)西北；(d)华东；(e)华中；(f)西南；(g)高原；(h)全国平均。黑色直线为线性回归趋势线

Figure 6. Time series of ID in various regions of China in the winters from 1961 to 2014: (a) Northeast China; (b) North China; (c) Northwest China; (d) East China; (e) central China; (f) Southwest China; (g) the Tibetan Plateau; (h) nationwide mean. Black beelines represent linear regression trends

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图 7 同图 3，但为月最低气温极大值时间序列

Figure 7. Same as Fig. 3, but for TNx

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图 8 同图 3，但为月最低气温极小值时间序列

Figure 8. Same as Fig. 3, but for TNn

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表 1 极端气温指数

Table 1. Indices of temperature extreme

分类	名称	代码	意义	单位
相对阈值指数	冷昼日数	TX10p	日最高气温小于10%分位值的日数	d
	冷夜日数	TN10p	日最低气温小于10%分位值的日数	d
绝对阈值指数	霜冻日数	FD	每月中日最低气温小于0 ℃的天数	d
	冰冻日数	ID	每月中日最高气温小于0 ℃的天数	d
极值指数	月最低气温极大值	TNx	每月中日最低气温的最大值	℃
	月最低气温极小值	TNn	每月中日最低气温的最小值	℃

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表 2 1961~2014年冬季中国各区域极端低温指数变化趋势

Table 2. Trends of indices of temperature extreme in the regions of China in winter from 1961 to 2014

	变化趋势/d (10 a)⁻¹				变化趋势/℃(10 a)⁻¹
	冷昼日数	冷夜日数	霜冻日数	冰冻日数	月最低气温极大值	月最低气温极小值
东北	−0.8	−1.6	−0.1	−0.9	0.4	0.7
华北	−1	−1.9	−0.4	−1.7	0.4	0.7
西北	−0.9	−1.5	−0.2	−1.4	0.5	0.5
华东	−0.9	−2	−3	−0.5	0.4	0.5
华中	−0.5	−1.7	−2.5	−0.5	0.3	0.4
华南	−0.2	−1.7	−0.3	—	0.2	0.3
西南	−0.5	−1.5	−1.5	−0.3	0.2	0.3
高原	−1.2	−2	−0.2	−2.3	0.5	0.6
全国	−0.4	−0.8	−0.3	−0.5	0.2	0.2

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表 3 1998~2014年冬季中国各区域极端低温指数变化趋势

Table 3. Trends of indices of temperature extreme in the regions of China in winter from 1998 to 2014

	变化趋势/d (10 a)⁻¹				变化趋势/℃(10 a)⁻¹
	冷昼日数	冷夜日数	霜冻日数	冰冻日数	月最低气温极大值	月最低气温极小值
东北	0.42	0.4	0.08	3.54	−0.35	−0.58
华北	0.85	0.64	0.48	4.16	−0.14	−0.78
西北	2.82	1.44	−0.07	5.67	−0.22	−0.61
华东	2.85	1.23	4.86	0.53	−0.39	−0.51
华中	1.36	1.28	3.48	0.55	−0.14	−0.25
华南	4.76	2.29	0.01	—	−0.92	−0.26
西南	2.09	1.23	1.59	0.46	−0.07	−0.1
高原	0.74	0.51	−0.35	−3.36	0.73	−0.02

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表 4 中国极端气温的部分研究

Table 4. Partial studies of temperature extremes in China

研究时段	区域选定	站点数量	是否分析WMO极端气温指数	参考文献
1951~1990年	中国	369	否	任福民等(1998)
1951~2000年	中国	241	否	王翠花等(2003)
1951~2010年	中国	731	否	王晓娟等(2013)
1955~2005年	中国	234	否	张宁等(2008)
1955~2006年	中国	275	否	付冬雪等(2011)
1960~2012年	中国	542	是	肖冰霜等(2016)
1961~2000年	中国	166	是	杨萍等(2010)
1961~2006年	中国	599	否	刘雅星等(2010)
1961~2008年	中国	526	是	周雅清和任国玉(2010)
1961~2008年	中国	752	否	赵俊虎等(2011)
1961~2009年	中国	696	否	钱忠华等(2011)
1961~2010年	中国	487	否	黄菲等(2014a)
1961~2014年	中国	691	是	本文

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