南海夏季风强度潜在可预报性的年代际变化及可能原因

李娇; 丁瑞强; 吴志伟; 秦箭煌; 李保生

doi:10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2018.18008

南海夏季风强度潜在可预报性的年代际变化及可能原因

doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2018.18008

1.
南京信息工程大学气象灾害教育部重点实验室,南京 210044;中国科学院大气物理研究所大气科学与地球流体力学数值模拟国家重点实验室,北京 100029;河南省气候中心,郑州 450003
2.
中国科学院大气物理研究所大气科学与地球流体力学数值模拟国家重点实验室,北京 100029;成都信息工程大学高原大气与环境四川省重点实验室,成都 610225
3.
复旦大学大气科学研究院,上海 200433
4.
上海交通大学海洋学院,上海 200030

基金项目: 国家自然科学基金优秀青年科学基金项目41522502，“全球变化与海气相互作用”专项GASI-IPOVAI-06，国家科技支撑项目2015BAC03B07

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出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2018-01-08

Inter-decadal Changes in Potential Predictability of the South China Sea Summer Monsoon Intensity and Possible Causes

1.
Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disasters of the Ministry of Education and Earth System Modeling Center, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044;State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029;Henan Province Climate Center, Zhengzhou 450003
2.
State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029;Plateau Atmosphere and Environment Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province, Chengdu University of Information Technology, Chengdu 610225
3.
Institute of Atmospheric Sciences, Fudan University, Shanghai 200433
4.
School of Oceanography, Shanghai Jiaotong University, Shanghai 200030

Funds: National Natural Science Foundation of China for Excellent Young Scholars (Grant 41522502), National Program on Global Change and Air-Sea Interaction (Grant GASI-IPOVAI-06), and National Key Technology Research and Development Program of the Ministry of Science and Technology of China Grant 2015BAC03B07National Natural Science Foundation of China for Excellent Young Scholars (Grant 41522502), National Program on Global Change and Air-Sea Interaction (Grant GASI-IPOVAI-06), and National Key Technology Research and Development Program of the Ministry of Science and Technology of China (Grant 2015BAC03B07)

摘要

摘要: 基于NCEP/NCAR再分析资料，利用信噪比（SNR）方法研究了南海夏季风强度潜在可预报性的年代际变化，结果表明：南海夏季风强度潜在可预报性在20世纪80年代出现了由潜在可预报性偏低位相向偏高位相的年代际转折。进一步的研究发现，南海夏季风强度潜在可预报性和东印度洋—西太平洋（EIOWP）的海表温度（SST）存在明显的正相关。当EIOWP区域SST年际变率较大时，对南海夏季风影响较强，使得南海夏季风的外部信号增强，从而提高了潜在可预报性；当EIOWP区域SST年际变率较小时，对南海夏季风影响较弱，南海夏季风的外部信号进而减弱，潜在可预报性降低。
- 南海夏季风强度 /
- 信噪比 /
- 潜在可预报性 /
- 年代际变化
Abstract: Inter-decadal changes in potential predictability of the South China Sea summer monsoon (SCSSM) intensity has been investigated using the signal to noise ratio method and based on the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis data. The potential predictability of the SCSSM intensity underwent a significant decadal change from a low potential predictability to a high potential predictability in the 1980s, followed by a decreasing trend in the early 2000s. Further analysis shows that the inter-decadal change in potential predictability of the SCSSM intensity has a significant positive correlation with sea surface temperature (SST) of the East Indian Ocean and the Western Pacific (EIOWP). The EIOWP area averaged SST with a high (low) phase of its inter-annual variability would have strong (weak) influence on the SCSSM and hence enhance (weaken) the SCSSM signal. As a result, the potential predictability of the SCSSM intensity tends to be high (low).
- South China Sea summer monsoon intensity /
- Signal to noise ratio /
- Potential predictability /
- Inter-decadal change

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