中、高温室气体排放情景下2069～2098年中国冬小麦气候适宜种植分区对比

李柯欣; 郑飞; 高学杰

doi:10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2020.20087

中、高温室气体排放情景下2069～2098年中国冬小麦气候适宜种植分区对比

doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2020.20087

李柯欣^{1, 2,},
郑飞^{1, 3, ,},
高学杰^{2, 4}

1.
中国科学院大气物理研究所国际气候与环境科学中心，北京100029
2.
中国科学院大学，北京100049
3.
南京信息工程大学气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心，南京210044
4.
中国科学院大气物理研究所气候变化研究中心，北京100029

基金项目: 中国科学院前沿科学重点研究计划项目ZDBS-LY-DQC010，国家自然科学基金项目41876012、41861144015

详细信息

作者简介:
李柯欣，女，1997年出生，博士研究生，从事海气相互作用和气候变化研究。E-mail: likexin191@mails.ucas.ac.cn

通讯作者:
郑飞，E-mail: zhengfei@mail.iap.ac.cn

中图分类号: P443
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- 被引次数: 0
出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2020-07-20
- 网络出版日期: 2020-10-09
- 刊出日期: 2022-01-25

Comparison of Winter Wheat Climatically Suitable Regions in China during 2069–2098 under Medium and High Greenhouse Gas Emission Scenarios

Kexin LI^{1, 2
,},
Fei ZHENG^{1, 3
, ,},
Xuejie GAO^{2, 4}

1.
International Center for Climate and Environment Sciences, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029
2.
University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049
3.
Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044
4.
Climate Change Research Center, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029

Funds: Key Research Program of Frontier Sciences, Chinese Academy Sciences (Grant ZDBS-LY-DQC010), National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grants 41876012 and 41861144015)

摘要

摘要: 基于温度、降水、光照等指标，通过利用区域气候模式所预估的分辨率为1°（纬度）×1°（经度）的未来气候预估数据，对1981～2005年的基准期和RCP4.5、RCP8.5两排放情景下2069～2098年中国热量资源以及冬小麦种植界限、理论生育期和气候适宜种植分区的空间分布特征进行了对比分析。研究主要结论为：与基准期相比，两未来气候变化情景下我国热量资源、冬小麦种植条件与气候适宜性差异显著。且相比于RCP4.5情景，在RCP8.5情景下中国2069～2098年多数地区热量资源增加、冬小麦种植北界和南界北移东扩、可种植面积扩大，多数区域理论适宜播种期推迟、理论成熟期提前、潜在生长季缩短，且潜在生长季内的光—温—水配置使得冬小麦气候适宜性有所提高。但由于冬小麦为喜凉作物，对高温胁迫非常敏感，RCP8.5情景下更多的极端高温天气和不对称增温等因素带来的负面影响很可能抵消前述光—温—水配置所带来的有利影响，从而降低冬小麦的种植适宜性。因此，未来研究工作仍应致力于减缓气候变化，以保障我国粮食生产的安全。
- 冬小麦 /
- 未来温室气体排放情景 /
- 气候适宜种植分区 /
- RCP4.5情景 /
- RCP8.5情景
Abstract: By adopting future climate projection data with a resolution of 1° (latitude)× 1° (longitude) driven by regional climate models during the base period from 1981 to 2005 and from 2069 to 2098 under representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 along with temperature, radiation, and precipitation indicators, the spatial distribution characteristics of thermal resources, planting boundary, theoretical growth period, and climatically suitable region of winter wheat in China were analyzed and compared under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The main findings of this study are as follows: Compared with the base period, there were significant differences in China’s thermal resources, winter wheat planting conditions, and climatically suitable region under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Most importantly, compared with RCP4.5, the thermal resources are projected to increase in most areas in China during 2069–2098 under RCP8.5. The northern and southern boundaries of winter wheat are projected to move northward and eastward; and therefore, the cultivable area would consequently increase. In most areas, the theoretically suitable sowing date would be delayed, theoretical maturity date would shift to an earlier date and, as a result, the potential growing season would be shortened. Meanwhile, allocation of radiation−temperature−precipitation in the potential growing season improved the climate suitability of winter wheat. However, because winter wheat is a chimonophilous crop that is sensitive to high-temperature stress, the negative effects under RCP8.5, such as extremely hot weather and asymmetric warming, are likely to offset the favorable effects of the allocation of radiation−temperature−precipitation mentioned above; thus probably reducing the planting suitability of winter wheat. Therefore, future research should be devoted to mitigating climate change in order to ensure the security of China’s food production.
- Winter wheat /
- Greenhouse gas emission scenario /
- Climatically suitable region /
- RCP4.5 scenario /
- RCP8.5 scenario

HTML全文

图 1 基准期（第1列）与2069～2098年RCP4.5（第2列）、RCP8.5（第3列）情景下中国平均热量资源空间分布，1～4行分别代表终霜日、初霜日、无霜期天数和大于0°C积温

Figure 1. Spatial distributions of China’s mean thermal resources in the base period (column 1) and in 2069–2098 under RCP4.5 (column 2) and RCP8.5 (column 3). Rows 1–4 represent days of final frost, first frost, frost-free period, and accumulated temperature greater than 0°C, respectively

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图 2 （a）基准期与2069～2098年RCP4.5、RCP8.5情景下中国冬小麦种植界限空间分布及（b）种植南界放大情况

Figure 2. (a) Spatial distribution of winter wheat planting boundary in the base period and in 2069–2098 under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 in China and (b) amplification of southern boundary

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图 3 基准期（第1列）与2069～2098年RCP4.5（第2列）、RCP8.5（第3列）情景下中国冬小麦平均理论生育期空间分布，1～3行分别代表理论适宜播种期、理论成熟期和潜在生长季长度

Figure 3. Spatial distribution of mean winter wheat theoretical growth in the base period (column 1) and in 2069–2098 under RCP4.5 (column 2) and RCP8.5 (column 3). Rows 1–3 represent theoretically suitable sowing date, theoretical maturity date, and potential growing season, respectively

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图 4 基准期（第1列）与2069～2098年RCP4.5（第2列）、RCP8.5（第3列）情景下中国冬小麦平均气候适宜种植分区指标空间分布，1～3行分别代表光温生产潜力、无冻害保证率和潜在生长季内降水量

Figure 4. Spatial distributions of mean winter wheat climatically suitable region indexes in the base period (column 1) and in 2069–2098 under RCP4.5 (column 2) and RCP8.5 (column 3). Rows 1–3 represent radiation-temperature potential yield, no-frozen damage assurance rate, and precipitation during potential growing season, respectively

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图 5 （a）基准期与2069～2098年（b）RCP4.5、（c）RCP8.5情景下中国冬小麦气候适宜种植分区

Figure 5. Spatial distributions of winter wheat climatically suitable region in (a) the base period and in 2069–2098 under (b) RCP4.5 and (c) RCP8.5 in China

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

表 1 光合生产潜力计算公式参数物理意义及冬小麦对应的参数取值

Table 1. Physical meaning and corresponding numerical value of winter wheat in the formula of photosynthetic potential yield

参数名称	物理意义	取值
K	物能转换系数	10000.5
Ω	作物光合固定CO₂的能力	0.85
ε	光合辐射占总辐射的比例	0.49
φ	光合作用量子效率	0.224
α	植物群体反射率	0.06
β	植物繁茂群体发射率	0.08
ρ	非光合器官截留辐射率	0.1
γ	超过光饱和点的光的比例	0.05
ω	呼吸消耗占光合物的比例	0.5573
η	成熟产品的含水率	0.131
ξ	植物无机灰分含量的比例	0.08
s	作物经济系数	0.372
q	单位干物质含热值（单位：MJ/kg）	17.58
F(L)	叶面积订正系数	0.6278
Q	全生育期到达地表总辐射量	计算得出
t_min	生长最低温度（单位：°C）	3
t_max	生长最高温度（单位：°C）	32
t_s	生长最适温度（单位：°C）	22

下载: 导出CSV

表 2 基准期以及RCP4.5和RCP8.5情景下2069～2098年中国冬小麦气候适宜种植分区面积统计及其差异对比

Table 2. Cultivation climatically suitable region in the base period and in 2069–2098 under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 and their differences in China

	面积/10⁴ km²			相对于基准期可种植区面积所占比例
	基准期	RCP4.5	RCP8.5	基准期	RCP4.5	RCP8.5	RCP8.5–RCP4.5
种植风险区	56.7	42.7	29.4	18.2%	13.7%	9.4%	−4.3%
低适宜种植区	63.7	87.9	99.5	20.5%	28.3%	32.0%	3.7%
适宜种植区	187.5	198.5	204.0	60.3%	63.8%	65.6%	1.7%
最优种植区	3.2	0.3	14.7	1.0%	0.1%	4.7%	4.6%
总计	311.1	329.5	347.5	100.0%	105.9%	111.7%	5.8%

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