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庄园煌, 张井勇, 梁健. 2021. 1.5°C与2°C温升目标下“一带一路”主要陆域气温和降水变化的CMIP6多模式预估[J]. 气候与环境研究, 26(4): 374−390. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2021.20153
引用本文: 庄园煌, 张井勇, 梁健. 2021. 1.5°C与2°C温升目标下“一带一路”主要陆域气温和降水变化的CMIP6多模式预估[J]. 气候与环境研究, 26(4): 374−390. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2021.20153
ZHUANG Yuanhuang, ZHANG Jingyong, LIANG Jian. 2021. Projected Temperature and Precipitation Changes over Major Land Regions of the Belt and Road Initiative under the 1.5°C and 2°C Climate Targets by the CMIP6 Multi-Model Ensemble [J]. Climatic and Environmental Research (in Chinese), 26 (4): 374−390. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2021.20153
Citation: ZHUANG Yuanhuang, ZHANG Jingyong, LIANG Jian. 2021. Projected Temperature and Precipitation Changes over Major Land Regions of the Belt and Road Initiative under the 1.5°C and 2°C Climate Targets by the CMIP6 Multi-Model Ensemble [J]. Climatic and Environmental Research (in Chinese), 26 (4): 374−390. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2021.20153

1.5°C与2°C温升目标下“一带一路”主要陆域气温和降水变化的CMIP6多模式预估

Projected Temperature and Precipitation Changes over Major Land Regions of the Belt and Road Initiative under the 1.5°C and 2°C Climate Targets by the CMIP6 Multi-Model Ensemble

  • 摘要: 基于CMIP6的16个全球模式试验数据,多模式集合预估了《巴黎协定》1.5°C/2°C温升目标下“一带一路”倡议的主要陆域未来气温和降水变化。与观测相比较,多模式集合能够比较准确地刻画“一带一路”主要陆域1995~2014年气温和降水的空间结构特征。在SSP2-4.5、SSP3-7.0和SSP5-8.5三种不同路径情景下,相对于工业革命前(1850~1900年),全球升温1.5°C与2°C分别将发生在2020年代中后期与2040年左右。全球1.5°C与2°C温升目标下,预计“一带一路”陆域平均的气温分别显著升高1.84°C和2.43°C,两者相差0.59°C,模式间标准差分别为0.18°C和0.21°C;区域平均的降水分别显著增加20.14 mm/a和30.02 mm/a,相差9.88 mm/a,模式间标准差分别为10.79 mm/a和13.72 mm/a。两种温升目标下,“一带一路”主要陆域气温空间上均表现为一致性显著增暖,高纬度的增温幅度普遍比低纬度大;降水变化具有明显的空间差异性,地中海与黑海地区、中国南部至中南半岛地区减少,其他地区的降水普遍增加。P-E指数表征的干旱化未来在欧洲地区、中国南部至中南半岛地区、南亚印度东部地区、东南亚和赤道非洲中部地区达到最大。

     

    Abstract: Surface air temperature and precipitation changes over major land regions of the Belt and Road Initiative under the 1.5°C and 2°C climate targets are projected by the multi-model ensemble (MME) method based on the 16-member CMIP6. The MME mean simulations of 16-member CMIP6 can capture observed spatial structures in surface air temperature and precipitation for the period of 1995−2014. Relative to the pre-industrial levels (1850−1900), the global warming of 1.5°C and 2°C will occur in the middle and late 2020s and around 2040, respectively, for the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 2-Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 (SSP2-4.5), SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5. Under the 1.5°C and 2°C climate targets, the MME mean projections show that averaged over major land regions of the Belt and Road Initiative, annual average surface air temperature will increase significantly by 1.84°C and 2.43°C with a difference of 0.59°C; for the standard deviations between 16-CMIP6 models, they are 0.18°C and 0.21°C. Annual precipitation will increase significantly by 20.14 mm/a and 30.02 mm/a, with a difference of 9.88 mm/a; and the standard deviations between 16-CMIP6 models are 10.79 mm/a and 13.72 mm/a. Spatially, annual mean surface air temperature are projected to generally have significant increases over the whole study areas compared with the pre-industrial levels under the two global warming targets with the stronger warming magnitudes at high latitudes than at low latitudes. Future precipitation variations are projected to show clear spatial differences: Annual mean precipitation will decrease over the Mediterranean and Black Sea regions, yet increase over most of the remaining areas. The aridity represented by P-E index will reach the maximum in Europe, Southern China to Indochina Peninsula, South Asia, Eastern India, Southeast Asia and Central Africa.

     

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