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王双双, 谢文强, 延晓冬. 2022. CMIP6模式对中国气温日较差的模拟能力评估[J]. 气候与环境研究, 27(1): 79−93. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2021.21063
引用本文: 王双双, 谢文强, 延晓冬. 2022. CMIP6模式对中国气温日较差的模拟能力评估[J]. 气候与环境研究, 27(1): 79−93. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2021.21063
WANG Shuangshuang, XIE Wenqiang, YAN Xiaodong. 2022. Evalution on CMIP6 Model Simulation of the Diurnal Temperature Range over China [J]. Climatic and Environmental Research (in Chinese), 27 (1): 79−93. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2021.21063
Citation: WANG Shuangshuang, XIE Wenqiang, YAN Xiaodong. 2022. Evalution on CMIP6 Model Simulation of the Diurnal Temperature Range over China [J]. Climatic and Environmental Research (in Chinese), 27 (1): 79−93. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2021.21063

CMIP6模式对中国气温日较差的模拟能力评估

Evalution on CMIP6 Model Simulation of the Diurnal Temperature Range over China

  • 摘要: 利用CRU_TS v4.04观测数据作为验证,对28个CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6) 模式模拟中国区域内气温日较差(Diurnal Temperature Range, DTR)年际变化、气候平均态变化以及不同区域和不同季节尺度变化的能力进行评估。结果表明:在百年尺度上,CMIP6模式能够反映出年际变化中DTR下降的演变趋势,模式与观测之间的相关系数在0.1~0.7,均方根误差在0.6~1.5,Taylor 评分(Taylor Score, TS)在0.2~0.7,MRI-ESM2-0模式与观测之间的相关系数(0.65)最大,均方根误差(0.8)最小,TS(0.67)最高,模拟能力最好;在30年气候平均态尺度上,CMIP6模式符合观测呈现的DTR北方地区高、南方地区低,西部地区高、东部地区低,内陆地区高、沿海地区低,高原地区高、平原盆地地区低的空间分布特征,基本可以再现中国大范围区域内DTR下降的空间分布特征,对不同区域和不同季节DTR变化也有较好的模拟,以EC-Earth3模式的模拟能力最好。然而,单模式存在不同程度的高估或低估DTR变化的现象,多模式中位数集合能够模拟出DTR在年际变化和气候平均态变化中的一些特征,对于春季和冬季的模拟,多模式集合优于单模式模拟。

     

    Abstract: The ability of 28 CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6) models that simulate the interannual variation and change of the climate mean state of the Diurnal Temperature Range (DTR) in China and different regional and seasonal scales was evaluated by using the CRU_TS v4.04 observation data as the benchmark. The results showed that the CMIP6 models can reflect the declining trend of the DTR at a centennial time scale in the interannual variation. The correlation coefficient between the model and the observation is 0.1–0.7, root-mean-square error is 0.6–1.5, and Taylor Score (TS) is 0.2–0.7. The correlation coefficient between the MRI-ESM2-0 model and the observation is the highest (0.65), root-mean-square error (0.8) is the lowest, and TS (0.67) is the highest. This indicates that the MRI-ESM2-0 model has the best simulation ability. At a 30-year climate mean scale, the CMIP6 models accord with the observed spatial distribution characteristics of the DTR, which is high in northern China, low in southern China, high in western China, high in eastern China, high in inland China, low in coastal areas, high in the plateau, and low in the plain basin. CMIP6 models can basically reproduce the declining trend over a large area of China in the climate mean state, and the DTR variation in different regions and seasons are also well simulated, with the EC-Earth3 model exhibiting the best performance. However, the individual model is easy to overestimate or underestimate the DTR variation to some extent. The multi-model ensemble can simulate some characteristics of the DTR in the interannual variation and change of the climate mean state, which is better than the single model for the spring and winter simulation.

     

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