河南地区降水量和云量与地面太阳短波辐射的关系

李张群; 肖子牛; 丁煌; 崔方

doi:10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2021.21065

河南地区降水量和云量与地面太阳短波辐射的关系

doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2021.21065

李张群^{1, 2,},
肖子牛^{1, 2, ,},
丁煌³,
崔方³

1.
中国科学院大气物理研究所大气科学和地球流体力学数值模拟国家重点室验室，北京 100029
2.
中国科学院大学地球与行星科学学院，北京 100049
3.
中国电力科学研究院有限公司，南京 210003

基金项目: 国家电网有限公司总部科技项目NY71-19-013

详细信息

作者简介:
李张群，女，1993年出生，博士研究生，主要研究领域为气候动力学。E-mail：lizhangqun@lasg.iap.ac.cn

通讯作者:
肖子牛，E-mail: xiaozn@lasg.iap.ac.cn

中图分类号: P422.1
计量
- 文章访问数: 396
- HTML全文浏览量: 118
- PDF下载量: 40
- 被引次数: 0
出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2021-04-09
- 网络出版日期: 2021-11-24
- 刊出日期: 2022-08-01

Relationship of Surface Solar Shortwave Radiation with Precipitation and Cloud Cover in Henan Province

Zhangqun LI^{1, 2
,},
Ziniu XIAO^{1, 2
, ,},
Huang DING³,
Fang CUI³

1.
State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029
2.
College of Earth and Planetary Sciences, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049
3.
China Electric Power Research Institute, Nanjing 210003

Funds: Science and Technology Project of State Grid Corporation of China (Grant NY71-19-013)

摘要

摘要: 对河南省2009~2018年地面太阳短波辐射量与降水量和云量的关系进行了分析，结果表明，地面太阳短波辐射量与降水量、云量具有显著的负相关关系，但在不同季节其相关关系差异较大。为了定量表征三者之间的关系，基于多年再分析资料，利用降水量和云量与地面太阳短波辐射量的关系对日辐射量进行拟合，并对拟合后的日辐射量进行检验。验证结果显示，此考虑季节性变化的回归模型对河南省地面太阳短波辐射有较好的拟合能力，可以作为基于气象预报的日辐射量短期变化评估基础，为光伏发电量的短期预报提供参考。
- 太阳短波辐射 /
- 总降水量 /
- 总云量 /
- 气象要素
Abstract: The relationship of Solar Shortwave Radiation Downwards (SSRD) with Total PREcipitation (TPRE) and Total Cloud Cover (TCC) in Henan Province from 2009 to 2018 was analyzed. Results showed that the SSRD in Henan Province has a significant negatively correlation with TPRE and TCC, but the correlation varies in different seasons. In order to quantitatively characterize the relationship among them, the daily SSRD is fitted using TPRE and TCC based on reanalysis data, and the fitted SSRD has been tested. This multiple linear regression model considering seasonal variation of TPRE and TCC shows a good fitting ability for SSRD in Henan Province. These results can be used as a basis for assessing short-term changes in SSRD based on weather forecasts and provide a reference for short-term forecasts of photovoltaic generation.
- Solar shortwave radiation downwards /
- Total precipitation /
- Total cloud cover /
- Meteorological factor

HTML全文

图 1 河南省2009～2018年（a）春季（MAM）、（b）夏季（JJA）、（c）秋季（SON）、（d）冬季（DJF）逐日总降水量（TPRE）和地面接收的向下短波辐射（SSRD）的空间相关系数（均通过99%的信度检验）

Figure 1. Correlation between the daily Solar Shortwave Radiation Downwards (SSRD) and Total PREcipitation (TPRE) in Henan Province in (a) spring (March–May, MAM), (b) summer (June–August, JJA), (c) autumn (September–November, SON), and (d) winter (December–February, DJF) from 2009 to 2018 (all passed the 99% confidence level)

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 2 河南省2009～2018年（a）春季、（b）夏季、（c）秋季、（d）冬季有降水日TPRE的对数和SSRD之间的散点图。黑色实线表示两者之间的线性拟合，并给出了拟合方程、拟合优度R²、相关系数（Cor）和相关系数显著性检验的置信水平（p）

Figure 2. Scatterplots of the logarithm of TPRE against SSRD in Henan Province in (a) MAM, (b) JJA, (c) SON, and (d) DJF from 2009 to 2018. The solid black line shows the linear fitting between the logarithm of TPRE and SSRD. The linear fitting equation, R², correlation coefficient, as well as the confidence level of the significant test are shown

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图 3 同图1，但为逐日TCC和SSRD的空间相关系数

Figure 3. Same as Fig. 1, but for correlation between the daily SSRD and total cloud cover (TCC)

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图 4 同图2，但为有云日的TCC和SSRD之间的散点图

Figure 4. Same as Fig. 2, but for scatterplots of the TCC against SSRD

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 5 2019年（a）春季、（b）夏季、（c）秋季、（d）冬季基于TPRE和TCC回归得到的SSRD*与实际SSRD的散点图。黑色实线表示两者之间的线性拟合，并给出了SSRD*与实际SSRD的拟合优度R²、相关系数（Cor）、相关系数显著性检验的置信水平（p）、均方根误差（RMSE）和平均绝对误差（MAE）

Figure 5. Scatterplots of the SSRD* against the actual SSRD in (a) MAM, (b) JJA, (c) SON, and (d) DJF of 2019. The solid black line shows the linear fitting between the SSRD* and actual SSRD. The R², correlation coefficient as well as the significance test’s confidence level, root-mean-square error, and mean absolute deviation, that between the SSRD* and actual SSRD are also shown

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