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河南地区降水量和云量与地面太阳短波辐射的关系

李张群 肖子牛 丁煌 崔方

李张群, 肖子牛, 丁煌, 等. 2022. 河南地区降水量和云量与地面太阳短波辐射的关系[J]. 气候与环境研究, 27(4): 504−512 doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2021.21065
引用本文: 李张群, 肖子牛, 丁煌, 等. 2022. 河南地区降水量和云量与地面太阳短波辐射的关系[J]. 气候与环境研究, 27(4): 504−512 doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2021.21065
LI Zhangqun, XIAO Ziniu, DING Huang, et al. 2022. Relationship of Surface Solar Shortwave Radiation with Precipitation and Cloud Cover in Henan Province [J]. Climatic and Environmental Research (in Chinese), 27 (4): 504−512 doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2021.21065
Citation: LI Zhangqun, XIAO Ziniu, DING Huang, et al. 2022. Relationship of Surface Solar Shortwave Radiation with Precipitation and Cloud Cover in Henan Province [J]. Climatic and Environmental Research (in Chinese), 27 (4): 504−512 doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2021.21065

河南地区降水量和云量与地面太阳短波辐射的关系

doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2021.21065
基金项目: 国家电网有限公司总部科技项目NY71-19-013
详细信息
    作者简介:

    李张群,女,1993年出生,博士研究生,主要研究领域为气候动力学。E-mail:lizhangqun@lasg.iap.ac.cn

    通讯作者:

    肖子牛,E-mail: xiaozn@lasg.iap.ac.cn

  • 中图分类号: P422.1

Relationship of Surface Solar Shortwave Radiation with Precipitation and Cloud Cover in Henan Province

Funds: Science and Technology Project of State Grid Corporation of China (Grant NY71-19-013)
  • 摘要: 对河南省2009~2018年地面太阳短波辐射量与降水量和云量的关系进行了分析,结果表明,地面太阳短波辐射量与降水量、云量具有显著的负相关关系,但在不同季节其相关关系差异较大。为了定量表征三者之间的关系,基于多年再分析资料,利用降水量和云量与地面太阳短波辐射量的关系对日辐射量进行拟合,并对拟合后的日辐射量进行检验。验证结果显示,此考虑季节性变化的回归模型对河南省地面太阳短波辐射有较好的拟合能力,可以作为基于气象预报的日辐射量短期变化评估基础,为光伏发电量的短期预报提供参考。
  • 图  1  河南省2009~2018年(a)春季(MAM)、(b)夏季(JJA)、(c)秋季(SON)、(d)冬季(DJF)逐日总降水量(TPRE)和地面接收的向下短波辐射(SSRD)的空间相关系数(均通过99%的信度检验)

    Figure  1.  Correlation between the daily Solar Shortwave Radiation Downwards (SSRD) and Total PREcipitation (TPRE) in Henan Province in (a) spring (March–May, MAM), (b) summer (June–August, JJA), (c) autumn (September–November, SON), and (d) winter (December–February, DJF) from 2009 to 2018 (all passed the 99% confidence level)

    图  2  河南省2009~2018年(a)春季、(b)夏季、(c)秋季、(d)冬季有降水日TPRE的对数和SSRD之间的散点图。黑色实线表示两者之间的线性拟合,并给出了拟合方程、拟合优度R2、相关系数(Cor)和相关系数显著性检验的置信水平(p

    Figure  2.  Scatterplots of the logarithm of TPRE against SSRD in Henan Province in (a) MAM, (b) JJA, (c) SON, and (d) DJF from 2009 to 2018. The solid black line shows the linear fitting between the logarithm of TPRE and SSRD. The linear fitting equation, R2, correlation coefficient, as well as the confidence level of the significant test are shown

    图  3  同图1,但为逐日TCC和SSRD的空间相关系数

    Figure  3.  Same as Fig. 1, but for correlation between the daily SSRD and total cloud cover (TCC)

    图  4  同图2,但为有云日的TCC和SSRD之间的散点图

    Figure  4.  Same as Fig. 2, but for scatterplots of the TCC against SSRD

    图  5  2019年(a)春季、(b)夏季、(c)秋季、(d)冬季基于TPRE和TCC回归得到的SSRD*与实际SSRD的散点图。黑色实线表示两者之间的线性拟合,并给出了SSRD*与实际SSRD的拟合优度R2、相关系数(Cor)、相关系数显著性检验的置信水平(p)、均方根误差(RMSE)和平均绝对误差(MAE)

    Figure  5.  Scatterplots of the SSRD* against the actual SSRD in (a) MAM, (b) JJA, (c) SON, and (d) DJF of 2019. The solid black line shows the linear fitting between the SSRD* and actual SSRD. The R2, correlation coefficient as well as the significance test’s confidence level, root-mean-square error, and mean absolute deviation, that between the SSRD* and actual SSRD are also shown

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出版历程
  • 收稿日期:  2021-04-09
  • 网络出版日期:  2021-11-24
  • 刊出日期:  2022-08-01

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