Evaluation of Two Generation Rapid Refresh Assimilation Numerical Prediction Systems in North China Regional Air Traffic Management Bureau of CAAC
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摘要: 民航华北空管气象中心自主研发了第一代快速更新循环同化数值预报系统（NMC-RAP）和更新的第二代快速循环同化数值预报系统（NMC-HRRR）。针对2020年和2021年6~8月华北区域3次大范围雷雨天气过程的雷达反射率的预报结果，从雷达回波的空间分布、航空雷暴临近预报系统（Aviation Thunderstorm Nowcasting System, ATNS）评分、主要机场对流预警的预报效果等角度，对两代快速更新循环同化数值预报系统的预报性能进行了对比分析。结果表明：1）两代系统均能较好体现雷达回波的空间分布特征，回波强度也与区域雷达拼图实况资料比较接近。对于强回波中心落区这样的关键预报，NMC-HRRR总能体现出更大的优势，与实况更吻合。2）两代系统的弱回波预报的ATNS评分均优于强回波。其中，NMC-HRRR 0~9 h内预报的强、弱回波评分整体较高，特别是0~360 min和第540分钟的强回波预报，显著优于NMC-RAP。3）NMC-HRRR在预报对飞行有影响的回波开始出现的时间方面优势明显。对5个主要机场强对流预警的整体评估，定量证明了NMC-HRRR相较NMC-RAP，在强、弱回波的定时、定点预报准确率及其时空分布的改进都是有显著效果的。
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关键词:
- 民航气象 /
- 快速更新循环同化数值预报系统 /
- 雷达反射率 /
- 航空雷暴临近预报系统（ATNS）评分
Abstract: The first-generation rapid refresh assimilation numerical forecast system of North Meteorological Center (NMC-RAP) and the upgraded second generation system (NMC-HRRR, the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh assimilation numerical forecast system of North Meteorological Center) have been independently developed by the Meteorological Center of North China Regional Air Traffic Management Bureau of CAAC. The radar reflectivity forecasts of two generation systems are evaluated comprehensively for three large-scale thunderstorms in North China during June to August of 2020 and 2021, in terms of the spatial distribution, Aviation Thunderstorm Nowcasting System (ATNS) score, and severe convective warning of major airports. Results show that the spatial distribution characteristics are well captured by both forecast systems, and the intensity is also closer to the composite radar reflectivity observations. NMC-HRRR always performs better in critical forecasts, such as the coverage of strong reflectivity echo, which is more consistent with the observations. For the two generation systems, the ATNS scores of weak echoes are better than strong echoes. In general, the strong and weak echo scores of NMC-HRRR forecasts within 0−9 h are significantly better than NMC-RAP, especially for the strong echoes in 0−360 min and at the 540th minute. NMC-HRRR shows better forecasting in strong and weak echoes, and the timing when the echo that affects the flight. The total counts of occurrences of severe convective warning from five major airports quantitatively prove that NMC-HRRR shows effective improvements over NMC-RAP to forecast strong and weak echoes with better accuracy in time and space. -
图 1 （a）实况、（b）NMC-RAP和（c）NMC-HRRR系统预报的2020年6月1日06:00起报的第150分钟雷达反射率强度的空间分布
Figure 1. Spatial distributions of (a) observation and predicted radar reflectivity with the 150th minute forecasts from (b) NMC-RAP and (c) NMC-HRRR systems, both initialized at 0600 UTC 1 Jun 2020
图 2 同图1，但为2021年6月13日04:00起报的第240分钟雷达反射率强度
Figure 2. Same as Fig. 1, but for the radar reflectivity with the 240th minute forecasts initialized at 0400 UTC 13 Jun 2021
图 3 同图1，但为2021年8月23日08:00起报的第300分钟雷达反射率强度
Figure 3. Same as Fig. 1, but for the radar reflectivity with the 300th minute forecasts initialized at 0800 UTC 23 Aug 2021
表 1 NMC-RAP和NMC-HRRR系统2020年6月1日06:00起报的0～9 h雷达反射率预报结果的航空雷暴临近预报系统（ATNS）评分
Table 1. Aviation Thunderstorm Nowcasting System (ATNS) scores of radar reflectivity with 0−9 h forecasts from NMC-RAP and NMC-HRRR systems initialized at 0600 UTC 1 Jun 2020
预报时效/min NMC-RAP系统评分 NMC-HRRR系统评分 强回波 弱回波 强回波 弱回波 0 0.21 0.62 0.61 0.82 30 0.54 0.69 0.65 0.80 60 0.38 0.62 0.59 0.69 90 0.36 0.58 0.48 0.70 120 0.31 0.59 0.53 0.70 150 0.31 0.57 0.56 0.66 180 0.30 0.58 0.53 0.63 240 0.32 0.55 0.47 0.53 300 0.38 0.54 0.48 0.48 360 0.27 0.46 0.38 0.36 420 0.37 0.40 0.32 0.44 480 0.35 0.33 0.33 0.51 540 0.33 0.33 0.53 0.60 注：强回波≥35 dBZ，弱回波≥20 dBZ（包含强回波），下同。 
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表 2 同表1，但为2021年6月13日04:00起报的ATNS评分
Table 2. Same as Table 1, but for the ATNS scores initialized at 0400 UTC 13 Jun 2021
预报时效/min NMC-RAP系统评分 NMC-HRRR系统评分 强回波 弱回波 强回波 弱回波 0 0.09 0.27 0.77 0.73 30 0.35 0.34 0.75 0.70 60 0.43 0.39 0.61 0.69 90 0.45 0.42 0.37 0.70 120 0.36 0.42 0.46 0.66 150 0.36 0.40 0.43 0.60 180 0.27 0.37 0.46 0.62 240 0.26 0.33 0.44 0.60 300 0.18 0.34 0.33 0.50 360 0.27 0.36 0.32 0.45 420 0.33 0.45 0.22 0.39 480 0.20 0.36 0.26 0.45 540 0.17 0.31 0.19 0.40
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表 3 同表1，但为2021年8月23日08:00起报的ATNS评分
Table 3. Same as Table 1, but for the ATNS scores initialized at 0800 UTC 23 Aug 2021
预报时效/min NMC-RAP系统评分 NMC-HRRR系统评分 强回波 弱回波 强回波 弱回波 0 0.08 0.51 0.37 0.73 30 0.44 0.67 0.34 0.71 60 0.38 0.60 0.19 0.50 90 0.31 0.55 0.28 0.51 120 0.22 0.51 0.29 0.56 150 0.22 0.48 0.36 0.61 180 0.30 0.49 0.41 0.65 240 0.34 0.47 0.32 0.52 300 0.44 0.50 0.56 0.61 360 0.59 0.50 0.72 0.60 420 0.55 0.48 0.68 0.54 480 0.52 0.52 0.68 0.50 540 0.46 0.51 0.62 0.46
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表 4 实况和NMC-RAP系统、NMC-HRRR系统2020年6月1日06:00起报的0～9 h雷达反射率对华北区域5个主要机场的对流预警
Table 4. Severe convective warning of radar reflectivity at five airports in North China based on observations, and 0−9 h forecasts from NMC-RAP and NMC-HRRR systems initialized at 0600 UTC 1 Jun 2020
机场 来源 不同预报时效（单位：min）下的预警 0 30 60 90 120 150 180 240 300 360 420 480 540 首都 实况 弱 强 RAP 弱 HRRR 弱 强 大兴 实况 弱 弱 RAP HRRR 弱 弱 天津 实况 强 RAP 弱 HRRR 强 石家庄 实况 弱 弱 弱 RAP HRRR 弱 太原 实况 RAP HRRR
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表 5 实况和NMC-RAP、NMC-HRRR 2020年6月1日06:00起报的0～9 h雷达反射率预报结果对华北区域5个主要机场的对流预警总和
Table 5. Counts of total severe convective warning of radar reflectivity at 5 airports in North China based on observations, and 0−9 h forecasts from NMC-RAP and NMC-HRRR systems initialized at 0600 UTC 1 Jun 2020
ATNS评分之和 弱回波 强回波 实况 6 2 NMC-RAP 2 0 NMC-HRRR 4 2
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表 6 同表4，但为2021年6月13日04:00起报
Table 6. Same as Table 4, but initialized at 0400 UTC 13 Jun 2021
机场 来源 不同预报时效（单位：min）下的预警 0 30 60 90 120 150 180 240 300 360 420 480 540 首都 实况 强 弱 RAP 强 弱 HRRR 强 弱 大兴 实况 强 RAP 强 HRRR 强 天津 实况 强 弱 弱 强 强 RAP 弱 强 HRRR 强 弱 弱 弱 石家庄 实况 弱 弱 强 弱 弱 RAP 强 HRRR 强 弱 太原 实况 弱 弱 RAP HRRR
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表 7 同表5，但为2021年6月13日04:00起报
Table 7. Same as Table 5, but initialized at 0400 UTC 13 Jun 2021
ATNS评分之和 弱回波 强回波 实况 9 6 NMC-RAP 2 4 NMC-HRRR 5 4
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表 8 同表4，但为2021年8月23日08:00起报
Table 8. Same as Table 4, but initialized at 0800 UTC 23 Aug 2021
机场 来源 不同预报时效（单位：min）下的预警 0 30 60 90 120 150 180 240 300 360 420 480 540 首都 实况 弱 强 强 弱 RAP 弱 强 强 HRRR 弱 强 强 弱 大兴 实况 强 强 强 RAP 弱 强 弱 HRRR 强 强 天津 实况 弱 强 弱 强 弱 强 强 RAP 弱 弱 强 强 HRRR 弱 弱 弱 强 石家庄 实况 弱 弱 弱 弱 强 弱 弱 弱 弱 弱 RAP 弱 弱 弱 弱 HRRR 弱 弱 弱 弱 弱 太原 实况 弱 弱 RAP 弱 弱 HRRR 弱 弱
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表 9 同表5，但为2021年8月23日08:00起报
Table 9. Same as Table 5, but initialized at 0800 UTC 23 Aug 2021
ATNS评分之和 弱回波 强回波 实况 16 10 NMC-RAP 11 5 NMC-HRRR 12 5
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表 10 同表5，但为3次过程的总和
Table 10. Same as Table 5，but for total counts of three convective storms
ATNS评分之和 弱回波 强回波 实况 31 18 NMC-RAP 15 9 NMC-HRRR 21 11
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