1991～2019年中国农业生态系统旱涝脆弱性评估

李江南; 丑洁明; 赵卫星; 李芫梦; 徐源; 孙铭扬; 杨帆

doi:10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2021.21073

1991～2019年中国农业生态系统旱涝脆弱性评估

doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2021.21073

北京师范大学地理科学学部地表过程与资源生态国家重点实验室京，100875

基金项目: 国家重点基础研究发展计划项目2018YFC1509003，国家自然科学基金项目42075167

详细信息

作者简介:
李江南，女，1996年出生，硕士研究生，主要从事农业生态系统脆弱性研究。E-mail: 1342566581@qq.com

通讯作者:
丑洁明，E-mail: choujm@bnu.edu.cn

中图分类号: P467
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出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2021-04-23
- 网络出版日期: 2021-12-15
- 刊出日期: 2022-01-25

Droughts and Floods Vulnerability Assessment of China’s Agricultural Ecosystem from 1991 to 2019

State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology/Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875

Funds: National Key Research and Development Program of China (Grant 2018YFC1509003), National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant 42075167)

摘要

摘要: 近几十年来我国旱涝事件频发，同时农业是对气候变化最为敏感的产业部门，因此本文基于“敏感性—暴露度—适应力”脆弱性评估框架，选取敏感性、暴露度与适应力评价指标，结合层次分析法与熵权法确定指标权重，分别对1991～2019年我国农业生态系统干旱和洪涝敏感性、暴露度、适应力及脆弱性进行评估。结果表明：我国农业生态系统干旱高敏感地区分布在湖北、湖南等中南省份，而洪涝高敏感地区分布在沿海省份海南、上海和江苏，旱涝高暴露地区均分布在甘肃、河南、黑龙江，旱涝低适应力地区包括西南省份西藏、重庆、贵州和云南。总体而言，我国农业生态系统旱涝脆弱性呈现从中部向四周减弱趋势，中部省份河南和湖北属于旱涝高脆弱性水平，建议中部省份通过因地制宜调整农业生态结构，开发和采取针对旱涝灾害的应变种植、饲养和作物保护技术等措施来降低和适应其高脆弱性。
- 农业生态系统 /
- 旱涝 /
- 敏感性 /
- 暴露度 /
- 适应力 /
- 脆弱性
Abstract: In recent decades, there has been a high frequency of droughts and floods in China, which affects the agricultural sector as it is more sensitive to climate changes than other industrial sectors. Therefore, this study aimed to evaluate the sensitivity, exposure, adaptability, and vulnerability of China’s agricultural ecosystem to droughts and floods from 1991 to 2019 via selected indicators and index weights determined by the analytic hierarchy process and entropy method. Results show that the drought-sensitive areas of the agricultural ecosystem in China are distributed in the central and southern provinces, such as Hubei and Hunan. The flood-sensitive areas are distributed in the coastal provinces of Hainan, Shanghai, and Jiangsu. Areas with high exposure to droughts and floods are found in the provinces of Gansu, Henan, and Heilongjiang. Areas with low adaptability to droughts and floods are found in the Southwestern provinces of Tibet, Chongqing, Guizhou, and Yunnan. Generally, the drought and flood vulnerability of the agricultural ecosystem in China tend to be weak from the central areas to the other areas, and Henan and Hubei belong to the central provinces with high vulnerability to droughts and floods. Therefore, to recede and adapt to the high vulnerability in the central provinces, the agricultural ecology structure in China should be adjusted according to local conditions, and measures like flexible planting and feeding and crop protection should be adopted to cope with droughts and floods.
- Agricultural ecosystem /
- Droughts and floods /
- Sensitivity /
- Exposure /
- Adaptability /
- Vulnerability

HTML全文

图 1 1991～2019年中国农业生态系统旱涝脆弱性评价指标权重：（a）干旱敏感性；（b）干旱暴露度；（c）干旱适应力；（d）洪涝敏感性；（e）洪涝暴露度；（f）洪涝适应力

Figure 1. Evaluation of index weights of droughts and floods vulnerability of China's agricultural ecosystem from 1991 to 2019: (a) Drought sensitivity; (b) drought exposure; (c) drought adaptability; (d) flood sensitivity; (e) flood exposure; (f) flood adaptability

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图 2 1991～2019年中国农业生态系统旱涝脆弱性评价流程图

Figure 2. Flow chart of drought and flood vulnerability assessment of China's agricultural ecosystem from 1991 to 2019

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图 3 1991～2019年中国农业生态系统干旱敏感性、暴露度、适应力：（a）敏感性分级；（b）敏感性指数；（c）暴露度分级；（d）暴露度指数；（e）适应力分级；（f）适应力指数

Figure 3. Drought sensitivity, exposure, and adaptability of China’s agricultural ecosystem from 1991 to 2019: (a) Sensitivity classification; (b) sensitivity index; (c) exposure classification; (d) exposure index; (e) adaptability classification; (f) adaptability index

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图 4 1991～2019年中国农业生态系统干旱脆弱性：（a）脆弱性分级；（b）脆弱性指数

Figure 4. Drought vulnerability of China’s agricultural ecosystem from 1991 to 2019: (a) Vulnerability classification; (b)vulnerability index

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图 5 1991～2019年中国农业生态系统洪涝敏感性、暴露度、适应力：（a）敏感性分级；（b）敏感性指数；（c）暴露度分级；（d）暴露度指数；（e）适应力分级；（f）适应力指数

Figure 5. Flood sensitivity, exposure, and adaptability of China's agricultural ecosystem from 1991 to 2019: (a) Sensitivity classification; (b) sensitivity index; (c) exposure classification; (d) exposure index; (e) adaptability classification; (f) adaptability index

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图 6 1991～2019年中国农业生态系统洪涝脆弱性：（a）脆弱性分级；（b）脆弱性指数

Figure 6. Flood sensitivity, exposure, and adaptability of China's agricultural ecosystem from 1991 to 2019: (a) Vulnerability classification; (b) vulnerability index

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图 7 1991～2019年中国农业生态系统旱涝脆弱性

Figure 7. Droughts and floods vulnerability of China’s agricultural from 1991 to 2019

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表 1 数据来源与说明

Table 1. Data sources and description

数据类别	数据来源	数据时间	数据属性
气候数据	中国地面气候资料日值数据集（V3.0) （http://data.cma.cn[2021-03-09]）	1991年～2019年	涵盖逐日降水量、日平均气温等气候资料的中国699个气象站点数据
年末常住人口、农业受灾面积、粮食播种面积、农用化肥使用量、农林牧渔生产总值、人均GDP、农业机械总动力、水库总库容量、除涝面积	《中国统计年鉴》，中国国家统计局（https://data.stats.gov.cn[2021-03-09]）	1991年～2019年	统计数据
人均水资源量、农业生态用水量数据	《中国统计年鉴》，中国国家统计局（https://data.stats.gov.cn[2021-03-09]）	2004年～2019年	统计数据
森林面积数据	中国国家统计局（https://data.stats.gov.cn[2021-03-09]），中国森林资源清查结果（http://forest.ckcest.cn[2021-03-09]）	1991年～2019年	统计数据

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表 2 1991～2019年中国农业生态系统干旱脆弱性评价指标体系

Table 2. Drought vulnerability assessment indexes of China's agricultural ecosystem from 1991 to 2019

目标层	准则层	指标（单位）	指标说明与计算方法
中国农业生态系统干旱脆弱性	敏感性	发生35°C以上高温概率（%）	正向指标。利用所求年份中出现日最高温度≥35°C的累积年份数除以总年份数计算得到
		年均连续干旱日数（d）	正向指标。根据气象干旱综合指数（MCI）、《气象干旱等级》（中国国家标准化管理委员会，2017）、廖要明和张存杰（2017），本研究中连续干旱日数是指逐日MCI达到中旱及以上干旱等级（重旱、特旱）的连续日数，发生连续15 d以上干旱概率即为所求年份中出现连续15 d及以上天数$ \mathrm{M}\mathrm{C}\mathrm{I} $达到中旱及以上干旱等级（重旱、特旱）的累积次数除以年份数计算得到
		每年发生连续15日以上干旱概率（%）
	暴露度	年末常住人口（10⁴）	正向指标。将数据正向标准化后的数值作为暴露度指标
		农业旱灾受灾面积（10³hm）
		粮食播种面积（10³hm）
		农业生态用水量（10⁹m³）
	适应力	人均GDP（元/人）	逆向指标。将数据逆向标准化后的数值作为适应力指标
		单位粮食播种面积农用化肥使用折纯量（t/hm）
		森林面积（10⁴hm）
		人均水资源量（m³/人）
		农林牧渔生产总值（10⁹元）
		农业机械总动力（10⁴kW）
		水库总库容量（10⁹m³）
注：农业生态用水量与人均水资源量数据存在缺失，故农业生态用水量与人均水资源量数据时间选取2004～2019年。

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表 3 1991～2019年中国农业生态系统洪涝脆弱性评价指标体系

Table 3. Flood vulnerability assessment indexes of China's agricultural ecosystem from 1991 to 2019

目标层	准则层	指标（单位）	指标说明与计算方法
中国农业生态系统洪涝脆弱性	敏感性	发生暴雨概率（%）	正向指标。由所求年份中出现日降水量≥50 mm的累积年份数除以总年份数计算得到*
		年均暴雨日数（d）	正向指标。由所求年份中出现日降水量≥50 mm的累积日数除以年份数计算得到*
		年均大雨日数（d）	正向指标。由所求年份中出现日降水量在 (25 mm, 50 mm) 的累积日数除以年份数计算得到*
	暴露度	年末常住人口（10⁴）	正向指标。将数据正向标准化后的数值作为暴露度指标
		农业水灾受灾面积（10³hm）
		粮食播种面积（10³hm）
	适应力	人均GDP（元/人）	逆向指标。将数据逆向标准化后的数值作为适应力指标
		单位粮食播种面积农用化肥使用折纯量（t/hm）
		除涝面积（10³hm）
		人均水资源量（m³）
		森林面积（10⁴hm）
		农业机械总动力（10⁴kW）
		水库总库容量（10⁹m³）
注：人均水资源量数据存在缺失，故人均水资源量数据时间选取2004～2019年；*表示计算方法依据《降水量等级》（中国国家标准化管理委员会，2012）。

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表 4 1991～2019年中国农业生态系统旱涝脆弱性评价分级

Table 4. Assessment indexes of the classification system of China's agricultural ecosystem for droughts and floods vulnerability from 1991 to 2019

评价分级	敏感性	暴露度	适应力	脆弱性
低	(0，$ {\overline{x}}_{\mathrm{s}}-{\sigma }_{\mathrm{s}} $]	(0，$ {\overline{x}}_{\mathrm{e}}-{\sigma }_{\mathrm{e}} $]	[$ {\overline{x}}_{\mathrm{a}}+{\sigma }_{\mathrm{a}} $，1)	(0，$ {\overline{x}}_{\mathrm{v}}-{\sigma }_{\mathrm{v}} $]
中	($ {\overline{x}}_{\mathrm{s}}-{\sigma }_{\mathrm{s}} $，$ {\overline{x}}_{\mathrm{s}}+{\sigma }_{\mathrm{s}} $)	($ {\overline{x}}_{\mathrm{e}}-{\sigma }_{\mathrm{e}} $，$ {\overline{x}}_{\mathrm{e}}+{\sigma }_{\mathrm{e}} $)	($ {\overline{x}}_{\mathrm{a}}-{\sigma }_{\mathrm{a}} $，$ {\overline{x}}_{\mathrm{a}}+{\sigma }_{\mathrm{a}} $)	($ {\overline{x}}_{\mathrm{v}}-{\sigma }_{\mathrm{v}} $，$ {\overline{x}}_{\mathrm{v}}+{\sigma }_{\mathrm{v}} $)
高	[$ {\overline{x}}_{\mathrm{s}}+{\sigma }_{\mathrm{s}} $，1]	($ {\overline{x}}_{\mathrm{e}}+{\sigma }_{\mathrm{e}} $，1）	（0，$ {\overline{x}}_{\mathrm{a}}-{\sigma }_{\mathrm{a}} $]	（0，$ {\overline{x}}_{\mathrm{v}}+{\sigma }_{\mathrm{v}} $，2）
注：$ {\overline{x}}_{\mathrm{s}} $表示敏感性平均值，σ_s表示敏感性标准差；$ {\overline{x}}_{\mathrm{e}} $表示暴露度平均值，σ_e表示暴露度标准差；$ {\overline{x}}_{\mathrm{a}} $表示适应力平均值，σ_a表示适应力标准差；$ {\overline{x}}_{\mathrm{v}} $表示脆弱性平均值，σ_v表示脆弱性标准差。

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表 5 1991～2019年中国农业生态系统旱涝脆弱性区域分布

Table 5. Droughts and floods vulnerability of China’s agricultural ecosystem from 1991 to 2019

	干旱高脆弱性	干旱中脆弱性	干旱低脆弱性
洪涝高脆弱性	河南、湖北	江苏、云南、上海	贵州、海南
洪涝中脆弱性	山西、湖南	甘肃、四川、内蒙古、宁夏、陕西、重庆、广西、广东、福建、浙江、江西、北京、辽宁、黑龙江、山东、河北	吉林
洪涝低脆弱性	安徽	天津	新疆、西藏、青海

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