Spatial and Temporal Characteristics of Annual and Seasonal Rainstorms in South China during 1961–2018
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摘要: 利用中国2400余个国家级气象台站观测数据插值得到的1961～2018年逐日网格降水资料，综合运用回归分析和Morlet小波变换等方法，分析了华南多年暴雨和区域性暴雨的时空变化特征，揭示了华南暴雨的变化规律。结果表明：1961～2018年，华南全年暴雨日数和暴雨雨量大值区域分布在广东、广西、福建沿海一带及海南省和广西北部，夏季暴雨日数和暴雨雨量最大，其次是春季。在广西北部至广西、湖南、广东三省交界处、广东南部、福建和海南省，全年暴雨日数、雨量和强度的增加趋势最显著，夏季的区域平均值增长速率最大，其次是秋季。华南区域性暴雨日数和过程数呈单峰型分布，一年中均可出现，最大值出现在6月。区域性暴雨日数和过程数多年平均值为28 d a−1和16.5 a−1，上升速率分别为0.15 d a−1和0.097 a−1，四季中夏季的上升速率最快，最慢的是秋季。平均单次过程持续日数和最大单次过程持续日数在冬季均以0.015 d a−1的速率显著上升，在春季却呈现下降的趋势。华南暴雨和区域性暴雨各要素在全年和四季的波动变化中不同程度地表现出准3 a、准14 a和准18 a的周期变化，2000年后，全年暴雨和区域性暴雨各要素准18 a的长周期和准3 a的短周期振荡非常显著。Abstract: The daily grid precipitation data from 1961 to 2018 were obtained by interpolating data from more than 2400 national meteorological stations in China. Based on this data set, regression analysis, Morlet wavelet transform, and other methods are employed to analyze the spatial and temporal characteristics of the rainstorm and regional rainstorm in South China; moreover, the variation laws of heavy precipitation are revealed. Results show that from 1961 to 2018, the maximum number of annual rainstorm days and amount of rainstorm rainfall in South China are distributed in the coastal areas of Guangdong, Guangxi, and Fujian, as well as Hainan Province and the northern part of Guangxi. The number of rainstorm days and amount of rainfall are the largest in summer, followed by spring. From the northern part of Guangxi to the junction of Guangxi, Hunan, and Guangdong provinces, the southern part of Guangdong, Fujian, and Hainan provinces, the increasing trend of rainstorm days, rainfall, and intensity are the most significant. The regional mean increasing trend is the highest in summer, followed by autumn. Additionally, the number of regional rainstorm days and processes in South China presents the occurrence of a single peak distribution, which could occur throughout the year. Moreover, the maximum value appears in June. The annual average number of regional rainstorm days and processes are 28 d a−1 and 16.5 a−1, and the increasing rates are 0.15 d a−1 and 0.097 a−1. In four seasons, the increasing rate is the fastest during summer and the slowest in autumn. The average and maximum of a single course duration increase significantly at the rate of 0.015 d a−1 in winter but show a decreasing trend in spring. For the periodic change, the South China rainstorm and regional rainstorm show quasi-three-year, quasi-14-year, and quasi-18-year cycle changes to different degrees in annual and seasonal fluctuations. After 2000, the quasi-18-year long period and quasi-three-year short-period oscillations of annual rainstorms and regional rainstorms are extremely significant.
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Key words:
- South China /
- Rainstorm /
- Regional rainstorm /
- Spatial and temporal characteristics
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图 1 1961~2018年华南全年和四季暴雨日数（左图）、暴雨雨量（右图）多年平均的空间分布：（a、f）全年；（b、g）春季；（c、h）夏季；（d、l）秋季；（e、j）冬季。暴雨日数和暴雨雨量全年的单位分别是2 d和2 mm，冬季分别是0.1 d和0.1 mm，春季、夏季、秋季分别是d和mm
Figure 1. Spatial distribution of annual and seasonal rainstorm days (left column) and rainstorm rainfall (right column) in South China during 1961–2018: (a, f) Annual; (b, g) spring; (c, h) summer; (d, l) autumn; (e, j) winter. The units of rainstorm days and rainfall are 2 d and 2 mm in annual, 0.1 d and 0.1 mm in winter, d and mm in spring, summer and autumn, respectively
图 2 1961～2018年华南全年、四季暴雨日数变化趋势的空间分布（左图，加点区域通过0.05显著性水平检验）和区域平均的暴雨日数距平时间序列（右图）：（a、b）全年；（c、d）冬季；（e、f）春季；（g、h）夏季；（i、j）秋季
Figure 2. Spatial distribution of annual and seasonal rainstorm day trends (left column, the black dots are the grid points that passed the 0.05 level significance test) and regional mean rainstorm day anomalies (right column) in South China during 1961–2018: (a, b) Annual; (c, d) winter; (e, f) spring; (g, h) summer; (i, j) autumn
图 3 1961～2018年华南全年、四季暴雨雨量变化趋势的空间分布（左图，加点区域通过0.05显著性水平检验）和区域平均的暴雨雨量距平时间序列（右图）：（a、b）全年；（c、d）冬季；（e、f）春季；（g、h）夏季；（i、j）秋季
Figure 3. Spatial distribution of annual and seasonal rainstorm rainfall trends (left column, the black dots are the grid points that passed the 0.05 level significance test) and regional mean rainstorm rainfall anomalies (right column) in South China during 1961–2018: (a, b) Annual; (c, d) winter; (e, f) spring; (g, h) summer; (i, j) autumn
图 4 1961～2018年华南全年、四季暴雨强度变化趋势的空间分布（左图，加点区域通过0.05显著性水平检验）和区域平均的暴雨强度距平时间序列（右图）：（a、b）全年；（c、d）冬季；（e、f）春季；（g、h）夏季；（i、j）秋季
Figure 4. Spatial distribution of annual and seasonal rainstorm intensity trends (left column, the black dots are the grid points that passed the 0.05 level significance test) and regional mean rainstorm intensity anomalies (right column) in South China during 1961–2018: (a, b) Annual; (c, d) winter; (e, f) spring; (g, h) summer; (i, j) autumn
图 5 1961～2018年华南区域性暴雨日数（浅蓝）和过程次数（深蓝）的月变化
Figure 5. Monthly variation of regional rainstorm days (light blue) and regional rainstorm processes (dark blue) in South China during 1961–2018
图 6 1961～2018年华南区域性暴雨日数（左列）和区域性暴雨过程数（右列）全年和四季的时间序列：（a、f）全年；（b、g）春季；（c、h）夏季；（d、i）秋季；（e、j）冬季。红色实线为一元线性回归拟合，蓝色虚线为均值
Figure 6. Annual and seasonal time series of the regional rainstorm day (left column) and regional rainstorm process (right column) in South China during 1961–2018: (a, f) Annual; (b, g) winter; (c, h) spring; (d, i) summer; (e, j) autumn. The red solid line is the unary linear regression fitting, and the blue dash line is the mean
图 7 1961～2018年华南平均单次区域性暴雨过程持续日数（左列）和最大单次区域性暴雨过程持续日数（右列）年和四季的时间序列：（a、f）全年；（b、g）春季；（c、h）夏季；（d、i）秋季；（e、j）冬季。红色实线为一元线性回归拟合，蓝色虚线为均值
Figure 7. Annual and seasonal time series of the average duration (left column) and the maximum rainstorm process duration days (right column) of single progress in South China during 1961–2018: (a, f) Annual; (b, g) winter; (c, h) spring; (d, i) summer; (e, j) autumn. The red solid line is the unary linear regression fitting, and the blue dash line is the mean
图 8 1961～2018年（a）全年、（b）冬季、（c）春季、（d）夏季、（e）秋季华南暴雨日数的逐年小波功率谱（左图，加点区域通过0.05显著性水平检验）和总体小波功率谱（右图）
Figure 8. (a) Annual, (b) winter, (c) spring, (d) summer, and (e) autumn wavelet power spectrum (left, the black dots are the grid points that passed the 0.05 level significance test) and the total wavelet power spectrum (right) of rainstorm days in South China during 1961–2018
图 9 1961～2018年（a）全年、（b）冬季、（c）春季、（d）夏季、（e）秋季华南区域性暴雨过程数的逐年小波功率谱（左图，加点区域通过0.05显著性水平检验）和总体小波功率谱（右图）
Figure 9. (a) Annual, (b) winter, (c) spring, (d) summer, and (e) autumn wavelet power spectrum (left, the black dots are the grid points that passed the 0.05 level significance test) and the total wavelet power spectrum (right panels) of regional rainstorm progresses in South China during 1961–2018
表 1 1961～2018年华南区域性暴雨各要素的气候倾向率
Table 1. Climatic tendency rate of the regional rainstorm in South China during 1961–2018
气候倾向率 区域性暴雨日数/d a−1 区域性暴雨过程数/ a−1 平均单次过程持续日数/d a−1 最大单次过程持续日数/d a−1 全年 0.150* 0.097* −0.0003 0.002 冬季 0.020* 0.014* 0.015* 0.015* 春季 0.019* 0.030* −0.004* −0.013* 夏季 0.092* 0.049* −0.001 0.005 秋季 0.019* 0.004 0.007* 0.007 *表示通过0.05的显著性水平检验。 
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