1961～2020年中国两大林区森林火险天气的多尺度特征

王文杰; 钱诚; 张宇; 封小凡; 张嘉仪

doi:10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2021.21097

1961～2020年中国两大林区森林火险天气的多尺度特征

doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2021.21097

王文杰^{1, 2,},
钱诚^{2, 3, ,},
张宇¹,
封小凡^{2, 3},
张嘉仪⁴

1.
成都信息工程大学大气科学学院，成都 610225
2.
中国科学院大气物理研究所中国科学院东亚区域气候—环境重点实验室，北京 100029
3.
中国科学院大学，北京 100049
4.
安徽省气象灾害防御技术中心，合肥 230031

基金项目: 国家重点研发计划项目2018YFC1507701

详细信息

作者简介:
王文杰，男，1997年出生，硕士研究生，主要从事极端天气气候事件研究。E-mail: 1123684030@qq.com

通讯作者:
钱诚，E-mail: qianch@tea.ac.cn

Fosberg M A. 1978. Weather in wildland fire management: The fire weather index [C]. Proceedings of the Conference on Sierra Nevada Meteorology, South Lake Tahoe, NV: 1–4.
中图分类号: P467
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出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2021-06-03
- 网络出版日期: 2021-09-13
- 刊出日期: 2022-09-25

Multi-time Scale Features of Fire Weather in Two Major Forests in China during 1961–2020

Wenjie WANG^{1, 2
,},
Cheng QIAN^{2, 3
, ,},
Yu ZHANG¹,
Xiaofan FENG^{2, 3},
Jiayi ZHANG⁴

1.
College of Atmospheric Sciences, Chengdu University of Information Technology, Chengdu 610225
2.
Key Laboratory of Regional Climate−Environment for Temperate East Asia, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029
3.
University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049
4.
Anhui Meteorological Disaster Prevention Center, Hefei 230031

Funds: National Key Research and Development Program of China (Grant 2018YFC1507701)

摘要

摘要: 近年来，世界各地的极端林火事件已呈现出多发态势。林火作为一种复合型极端事件，它的发生和蔓延与气象条件有着密切联系，在全球变暖的背景下，研究林区森林火险天气的变化特征可以为“碳中和”背景下的森林防火工作提供科学的信息。本文以逐日森林火险气象指数（FFDI）作为火险天气的度量指标，分析了该指数的适用性及空间分布特征，进而分析了1961～2020年东北和西南两大林区FFDI及相关气象因子的线性变化趋势；最后利用集合经验模分解（EEMD）的方法揭示了两大林区防火期FFDI的多时间尺度演变特征。研究发现：在季节以及年时间尺度上，FFDI的分布具有明显的区域特征，东北地区在春季、秋季处于高值期，而西南地区则集中在春季和冬季，这与两大林区的森林防火期有很好的对应关系。各个季节FFDI呈现显著增长的站点数在10%～20%左右，春季最多（21%）。东北林区FFDI的变化趋势在四季都不显著；但相关气象因子中的日最高气温在四季都呈现显著的变暖趋势，平均风速在四季都呈现显著减弱的趋势。西南林区四季的FFDI都呈现显著（至少是0.1水平下的）增长态势，其中春、冬季防火期的趋势分别为0.09/10 a（P<0.1）和0.05/10 a（P<0.1）；夏、秋、冬三个季节显著变暖又显著变干（P<0.05），朝着 “暖干化”的气候特征演变。年际变率在两大林区FFDI的演变中贡献超70%；东北春季和秋季防火期FFDI的非线性趋势分别呈先快速上升后减缓和先快速上升后转为下降的趋势；西南春季防火期FFDI的非线性趋势从上个世纪的稳定少变转为21世纪开始呈现快速上升的趋势，冬季防火期FFDI则总体呈稳步上升趋势。因此，西南林区的防火形势正变得愈发地严峻。
- 森林火灾 /
- 火险天气 /
- 森林火险气象指数 /
- 西南暖干化 /
- 集合经验模分解 /
- 多尺度特征
Abstract: Globally, there have been frequent occurrences of extreme forest fire incidents in recent years. As one kind of the compound extreme events, the occurrence and spread of forest fires are closely associated with meteorological conditions. Under global warming, investigating the changing characteristics of forest fire risk can provide valuable scientific information for forest fire prevention activities in the context of carbon neutrality. In this study, the daily forest fire danger index (FFDI) was used to measure fire weather, and the applicability and spatial distribution of this index were analyzed. In addition, the linear trend in FFDI and related meteorological factors in two major forest areas during 1961–2020 were analyzed. Finally, the ensemble empirical mode decomposition method was used to reveal the multi-time scale characteristics of FFDI in the two forest areas. The results show that the spatial distribution of FFDI has obvious regional characteristics on seasonal and annual time scales. Northeast China has a high FFDI during spring and autumn, whereas southwest China has a high FFDI during spring and winter. These seasonal variations show a good corresponding relationship with the forest fire prevention period in the two forest regions. The number of stations showing a significant increasing trend in FFDI in each season is around 10%–20%, with the highest in spring (21%). The linear trends in FFDI in the northeastern forest area are not significant in all seasons; however, among relevant meteorological factors, the daily maximum temperature and average wind speed respectively show a significant warming trend and a significant weakening trend in all seasons. The FFDI in all seasons of the southwestern forest area showed a significant increasing trend at a level of 0.1 at least, among which the trends during the spring and winter fire prevention periods were 0.09/10 a (P<0.1) and 0.05/10 a (P<0.1), respectively. The summer, autumn, and winter periods showed a significant warming and drying trend (P<0.05). The interannual variability contributes more than 70% to the evolution of FFDI in the two forest areas. The nonlinear trend of FFDI in the spring and autumn fire prevention periods in northeast China showed a rapid rise at first and then a decline. The nonlinear trend of FFDI in the spring fire season in southwest China changed from a stable stage in the last century to a rapidly increasing trend in the 21st century, whereas the overall trend of FFDI during the winter fire season increased steadily. Therefore, the situation of fire risk in forests of southwest China is increasingly becoming severe.
- Forest fire /
- Fire weather /
- Forest fire danger index /
- Warming and drying in Southwest China /
- Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD) /
- Multi-scale feature
注释:

1) Fosberg M A. 1978. Weather in wildland fire management: The fire weather index [C]. Proceedings of the Conference on Sierra Nevada Meteorology, South Lake Tahoe, NV: 1–4.

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图 1 站点分布及两大林区（黑色方框）示意图

Figure 1. Spatial distribution of 552 meteorological stations selected and the northeastern and southwestern forest regions analyzed (black rectangles)

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图 2 2005～2018年两大林区（a）1～12月森林火灾发生次数百分比和（b）森林火险气象指数（FFDI）逐月多年平均值、（c）东北林区和（d）西南林区FFDI与森林火灾发生次数的相关关系

Figure 2. (a) Ratio of forest fire occurrences from Jan to Dec and (b) multiyear average of the monthly forest fire danger index (FFDI) in the two major forest regions and the corresponding correlation between FFDI and the number of forest fire occurrences in the (c) northeastern forests and (d) southwestern forests during 2005–2018

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图 3 1981～2010年气候平均的森林火险气象指数火险等级：（a）春季；（b）夏季；（c）秋季；（d）冬季；（e）年平均

Figure 3. Spatial distributions of the category of climatological FFDI during 1981–2020: (a) Spring; (b) summer; (c) autumn; (d) winter; (e) annual average

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图 4 1961～2020年森林火险气象指数的变化趋势：（a）春季；（b）夏季；（c）秋季；（d）冬季；（e）年平均。实心三角形表示站点趋势在0.05水平下统计显著，空心三角形则表示站点在统计意义上并不显著。呈显著增长趋势的站点数所占百分比也列在图中

Figure 4. Spatial distributions of the linear trends in FFDI at 552 stations during 1961–2020: (a) Spring, (b) summer, (c) autumn, (d) winter, and (e) annual average. Solid triangles indicate that the linear trends are significant at a 5% confidence level, whereas hollow triangles indicate that the linear trends are not statistically significant. The percentages of stations whose trends are dominant in sign and statistically significant are also listed

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图 5 1961～2020年东北林区（a）春季、（b）秋季和西南林区（c）春季、（d）冬季防火期森林火险气象指数的时间序列（实线）以及对应的线性趋势（虚线）

Figure 5. Time series (solid lines) of FFDI in the northeastern forest region in (a) spring and (b) autumn and southwestern forest region in (c) spring and (d) winter during 1961–2020 and their linear trends (dashed line)

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图 6 1961～2020年东北林区（a）春季T_max、（b）春季v和西南林区（c）春季T_max、（d）冬季T_max、（e）冬季KBDI防火期显著变化的气象因子的时间序列（实线）以及对应的线性趋势（虚线）

Figure 6. Time series (solid lines) of (a) daily maximum temperature (T_max) in spring and (b) wind speed (v) in spring in Northeastern forest region and (c) T_max in spring, (d) T_max in winter, and (e) Keetch Byram Drought Index (KBDI) in winter in Southwestern forest region and their linear trends (dashed lines) during 1961–2020

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图 7 1961～2020年两大林区防火期森林火险气象指数序列的各EEMD分量（C1−C4）、趋势（蓝实线）和相应的线性趋势（红虚线）

Figure 7. EEMD components (C1−C4), trends (blue solid lines), and corresponding linear trends (red dashed lines) of FFDI in the fire seasons of the two forest regions during 1961–2020

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图 8 1961～2020年两大林区防火期相关气象因子KBDI、DF、T_max、RH和v的EEMD趋势。为便于比较，相应FFDI的EEMD趋势也展示在最下方

Figure 8. EEMD trends of related meteorological factors KBDI, Drought Factor (DF), T_max, Relative Humidity (RH), and v in the fire seasons of the two forest regions during 1961–2020. For ease of comparison, the EEMD trend of corresponding FFDI is also shown at the bottom

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表 1 1961～2020年东北林区森林火险气象指数及相关因子的线性趋势

Table 1. Linear trends of FFDI and related variables in the northeastern forest region during 1961–2020

季节	变量	线性趋势系数/（10 a）⁻¹	95%置信区间
春季#	森林火险气象指数FFDI	0.01	（−0.08，0.10）
	干旱指数KBDI/mm	1.55^c	（−0.02，3.13）
	干旱因子DF	0.08^c	（−0.01，0.15）
	日最高气温T_max/℃	0.31^a	（0.11，0.53）
	相对湿度RH	−0.18%	（−0.61%，0.23%）
	日平均风速v/m s⁻¹	−0.23^a	（−0.27，−0.19）
夏季	森林火险气象指数FFDI	0.03	（−0.05，0.09）
	干旱指数KBDI/mm	0.72	（−0.66，1.96）
	干旱因子DF	0.04	（−0.04，0.13）
	日最高气温T_max/℃	0.16^a	（0.07，0.28）
	相对湿度RH	−0.26%	（−0.59%，0.07%）
	日平均风速v/m s⁻¹	−0.10^a	（−0.15，−0.06）
秋季#	森林火险气象指数FFDI	0.04	（−0.03，0.11）
	干旱指数KBDI/mm	1.09	（−0.89，3.06）
	干旱因子DF	0.06	（−0.06，0.18）
	日最高气温T_max/℃	0.21^b	（0.04，0.35）
	相对湿度RH	−0.35%^c	（−0.73%，0.06%）
	日平均风速v/m s⁻¹	−0.17^a	(−0.21，−0.13)
冬季	森林火险气象指数FFDI	0.02	(−0.01，0.05)
	干旱指数KBDI/mm	1.31	(−0.60，3.12)
	干旱因子DF	0.10^b	(0.00，0.21)
	日最高气温T_max/℃	0.31^b	(0.06，0.57)
	相对湿度RH	−0.56%^b	(−0.99%，−0.08%)
	日平均风速v/m s⁻¹	−0.17^a	(−0.22，−0.13)
注：#表示林区的防火期；^a、^b、^c表示通过99%、95%、90%的信度检验。

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表 2 1961～2020年西南林区森林火险气象指数及相关因子的线性趋势

Table 2. Linear trends of FFDI and related variables in the southwestern forest region during 1961–2020

季节	变量	线性趋势系数/（10 a）⁻¹	95%置信区间
春季#	森林火险气象指数FFDI	0.09^c	（−0.02，0.20）
	干旱指数KBDI/mm	1.37^c	（−0.10，2.99）
	干旱因子DF	0.07	（−0.04，0.16）
	日最高气温T_max/℃	0.17^a	（0.06，0.29）
	相对湿度RH	−0.19%	（−0.45%，0.12%）
	日平均风速v/m s⁻¹	−0.04^b	（−0.09，0）
夏季	森林火险气象指数FFDI	0.05^b	（0.01，0.09）
	干旱指数KBDI/mm	1.78^b	（0.29，3.09）
	干旱因子DF	0.11^b	（0.03，0.20）
	日最高气温T_max/℃	0.19^a	（0.12，0.26）
	相对湿度RH	−0.10%	（−0.29%，0.11%）
	日平均风速v/m s⁻¹	0.03	（−0.04，0.09）
秋季	森林火险气象指数FFDI	0.04^b	（0.00，0.07）
	干旱指数KBDI/mm	1.84^b	（0.29，3.43）
	干旱因子DF	0.11^b	（0.02，0.20）
	日最高气温T_max/℃	0.20^a	（0.11，0.30）
	相对湿度RH	−0.04%	（−0.32%，0.21%）
	日平均风速v/m s⁻¹	0.03	（−0.02，0.07）
冬季#	森林火险气象指数FFDI	0.05^c	（−0.01，0.10）
	干旱指数KBDI/mm	2.74^a	（0.72，4.50）
	干旱因子DF	0.13^b	（0.02，0.24）
	日最高气温T_max/℃	0.20^a	（0.06，0.34）
	相对湿度RH	0.02%	（−0.25%，0.31%）
	日平均风速v/m s⁻¹	−0.01	（−0.05，0.03）
注：#表示林区的防火期；^a、^b、^c表示通过99%、95%、90%的信度检验。

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表 3 1961～2020年两大林区森林火险气象指数与相应的气象因子之间的相关系数

Table 3. Correlation coefficients between the FFDI and corresponding meteorological factors in the two major forest regions during 1961–2020

	与FFDI的相关系数
地区	防火期	KBDI	DF	T_max	RH	v
东北	春季	0.64^a	0.67^a	0.57^a	−0.79^a	0.30^b
	秋季	0.89^a	0.90^a	0.50^a	−0.89^a	−0.03
西南	春季	0.90^a	0.95^a	0.76^a	−0.93^a	0.51^a
	冬季	0.81^a	0.85^a	0.67^a	−0.72^b	0.30
注：^a、^b分别表示通过99%、95%的信度检验。

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表 4 1961～2020年两大林区森林火险气象指数的集合经验模分解（EEMD）分量周期及方差贡献率

Table 4. Period and variance contribution of the Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD) components for FFDI series in the two major forest regions during 1961–2020

地区	防火期	变量	分量周期/a	方差贡献率
东北	春季	C1	2.93	64.93%
		C2	6.67	16.02%
		C3	15	11.09%
		C4	30	7.48%
		Res		0.48%
	秋季	C1	3	49.37%
		C2	6.67	24.71%
		C3	20	14.16%
		C4	30	10.70%
		Res		1.06%
西南	春季	C1	2.86	60.79%
		C2	5.22	25.70%
		C3	10	5.12%
		C4	24	2.78%
		Res		5.61%
	冬季	C1	3.07	60.25%
		C2	6.67	16.83%
		C3	12	9.23%
		C4	30	7.08%
		Res		6.61%

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