China’s Carbon Emissions in International Trade under Tariff Adjustments
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摘要: 为了适应气候变化,中国作为世界上产生碳排放最多的国家,正在从多方面制定减少碳排放的计划,并提出了2060年实现碳中和的目标。随着贸易全球化,全球其他国家消费的排放越来越多地在中国生产。国家间的贸易条件受政策影响很大,关税的高低会导致商品的贸易出现变化,进而导致进出口商品包含排放的变化。本文结合中美两国的贸易冲突,对中美两国加征关税后的贸易变化进行模拟,结合全球贸易分析模型的结果与投入产出分析法,定量地研究了关税变动后中国进出口隐含排放的变化。研究发现,在中美加征关税后,中美两国的贸易量大幅减少,并导致两国贸易涉及的排放变少,而中国向世界出口的排放反而有所增加。另外,由于进口市场被冲击,中国从全世界进口的排放明显变少,进而导致中国净出口的碳排放在加征关税后变多,且集中于能源密集型产业。从结果看,中国在贸易受限的情况下依旧向世界出口了大量排放,通过贸易合作来促进新能源产业的进步或许可以更好地解决减排需求。Abstract: To adapt to climate change, China, as the country creating the highest levels of carbon emissions in the world, is formulating a carbon emission reduction plan. The plan under development considers many aspects of emission generation and proposes a goal of achieving carbon neutrality by 2060. With the ever-increasing globalization of trade, the carbon emissions produced locally in China are increasingly impacting other countries worldwide. Thus, the carbon policies negotiated as terms of trade between countries can greatly impact worldwide carbon emission levels. Similarly, setting the level of tariffs based on emission levels will bring about significant changes in the international trade for goods. Consequently, this will likely lead to changes in the treatment of emissions in import and export agreements. This article examines the trade conflicts between China and the United States. In doing so, it simulates the additional tariffs imposed by China and the United States and combines the results of the global trade analysis model and the input–output analysis method. It concludes by quantitatively analyzing the changes in China’s hidden import and export emissions under the proposed tariff changes. The article finds that after China and the United States have hypothetically imposed tariffs, although the trade between China and the United States and the emissions thereof would be greatly reduced, the emissions of China’s exports to the world nonetheless would have significantly increased. In addition, due to the impact of the import market, China’s emissions from imports worldwide would have been significantly reduced, which would lead to an increase in China’s net exports of carbon emissions after tariffs. These exports would be concentrated in energy-intensive industries. Based on a review of the current results, China continues to export a significant amount of emissions to the world despite applicable trade restrictions. Promoting the progress of the new energy industry through trade may more efficiently solve the problem of carbon emission reduction.
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Key words:
- Climate change /
- Trade tariffs /
- Input–output analysis /
- Emissions contained in products
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表 2 中美两国贸易冲突增加25%关税后对中国各部门出口贸易的影响
Table 2. Influence of the trade conflict between China and the United States on China’s export
贸易量变化 部门 美国 大洋洲 东亚 东南亚 南亚 北美 拉丁美 欧盟 中东北非 中南非 其余诸国 交通运输 −0.73 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.06 0.08 0.07 0.08 0.07 0.06 0.07 机电产品 −0.79 0.07 0.08 0.08 0.07 0.16 0.09 0.10 0.08 0.07 0.10 电子产品 −0.75 0.06 0.07 0.11 0.05 0.16 0.08 0.09 0.07 0.06 0.08 有色金属制品 −0.70 0.06 0.05 0.05 0.06 0.07 0.06 0.07 0.06 0.05 0.06 总计 −0.33 0.06 0.06 0.07 0.06 0.12 0.07 0.08 0.07 0.06 0.07 表 1 IPCC、NDRC和Liu et al.(2015)3个研究中主要原料的排放因子
Table 1. Emission factors of main fuels in the research of IPCC, NDRC, and Liu et al. (2015)
排放因子 原煤 进口煤炭 原油 天然气 IPCC 0.713 0.713 0.838 0.521 NDRC 0.518 0.518 0.839 0.591 Liu et al.(2015) 0.499 0.508 0.838 0.590 表 3 中美两国贸易冲突增加25%关税后对中国各部门进口贸易的影响
Table 3. Influence of the trade conflict between China and the United States on China’s import
贸易量变化 部门 美国 大洋洲 东亚 东南亚 南亚 北美 拉丁美 欧盟 中东北非 中南非 其余诸国 农林渔业 −0.67 0.09 0.10 0.09 0.10 0.06 0.09 0.09 0.10 0.10 0.10 食品生产 −0.66 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.02 −0.04 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 交通运输 −0.74 0.06 0.05 0.05 0.07 0.00 0.05 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 化工制品 −0.76 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.03 −0.03 0.02 0.02 0.03 0.03 0.03 总计 −0.33 0.00 −0.04 −0.04 −0.01 −0.05 0.00 −0.02 0.00 0.00 −0.02 A1 全球国家地区分类
A1. Classification of global countries and regions
地区 模型中国家简称(英文) 描述 中国 chn 中国 美国 usa 美国 大洋洲 aus, nzl, xoc 大洋洲 东亚 hkg, jpn, kor, mng, twn, xea, brn 中国以外的东亚国家 东南亚 knm, idn, lao, mys, phl, sgp, tha, vnm, xse 东南亚诸国 北美洲 can, mex, xna 美国外的北美国家 拉丁美洲 arg, bol, bra, chl, col, ecu, pry, per, ury, ven, xsm, cri, gtm, hnd, nic, pan, slv, xca, dom, jam, pri, tto, xcb 拉丁美洲诸国 欧盟 aut, bel, bgr, hrv, cyp, cze, dnk, est, fin, fra, deu, grc, hun, irl, ita, lva, ltu, lux, mlt, nld, pol, prt, rou, svk, svn, esp, swe, gbr 欧盟28国 中东北非 bhr, irm, isr, jor, kwt, omn, qat, sau, tur, are, xws, egy, mar, tun, xnf 中东国家与北非国家 中南非 ben, bfa, cmr, civ, gha, gin, nga, sen, tgo, xwf, xcf, xac, eth, ken, mdg, mwi, mus, moz, rwa, tza, uga, zmb, zwe, xec, bwa, nam, zaf, xsc 非洲中南部国家 其余诸国 che, nor, xef, alb, blr, rus, ukr, xee, xer, kaz, kgz, tjk, xsu, arm, zae, geo, xtw 其余的国家 A2 GTAP模型中的部门与中国能源生产部门的合并
A2. Consolidation of sectors in the GTAP model with China's energy production sector
部门名称 GTAP模型部门 中国统计数据部门 类别 农林渔业 农林渔业 农业、林业、畜牧业、渔业、水利业 第一产业 煤炭 煤炭 煤炭开采选矿 能源生产 油气 石油天然气 石油和天然气开采 能源生产 矿产开采 矿产 黑色金属矿冶、有色金属矿冶、非金属矿冶、其他矿物矿冶 能源生产 食品生产 粮食生产 食品加工、食品生产 轻工业 饮料生产 饮料生产、烟草生产 饮料生产、烟草加工 轻工业 纺织业 纺织业 纺织业 轻工业 服装业 服装业 服装和其他纤维产品 轻工业 皮制品 皮制品 采购产品皮革,毛皮,羽绒和相关产品 轻工业 木制品 木制品 木材、竹子采伐、运输,木材加工,竹、藤、棕、草制品 轻工业 纸制品 纸制品 造纸及纸制品 轻工业 交通设备 交通设备 交通设备 轻工业 金属制品 金属制品 金属制品 重工业 其他
轻工业轻工业 制造家具,印刷和记录介质复制,文教体育用品 轻工业 石油煤炭制品 石油煤炭制品 石油加工和焦化,化学原料和化工产品 能源生产 化工制品 化工制品 化学纤维 重工业 药品 医疗及药物产品 轻工业 塑胶产品 塑胶产品 橡胶制品,塑料制品 重工业 矿产品 矿产品 非金属矿产 重工业 有色金属制品 有色金属制品 黑色金属冶炼和压制 重工业 其他金属制品 其他金属制品 有色金属冶炼和压延 重工业 机电设备 机电设备 电气设备及机械 电气设备 电子设备 电子设备 采购产品电子和电信设备,仪器,仪表,文化和办公室机械 电气设备 其他
重工业其他
重工业普通机械,特殊用途设备,仪器,仪表,文化和办公机械,其他制造业 重工业 水与电的
生产供给水与电的
生产供给电力、蒸汽、热水的生产和供应,自来水的生产和供应 能源生产 天然气的生产供给 天然气的生产供给 天然气生产和供应 能源生产 建筑业 建筑业 建筑业 建筑业 交通仓储 交通仓储 运输、仓储、邮电服务 服务业 其他
服务业其他
服务业批发、零售贸易及餐饮服务等 服务业 -
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