Subseasonal Evolution of the East Asian Summer Monsoon Simulated by Two BCC Climate Models Participating in CMIP6
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摘要: 分析了国家气候中心两个参加第六次国际耦合模式比较计划（CMIP6）的模式BCC-CSM2-MR和BCC-ESM1对东亚夏季风季节内演变的模拟情况，包括气候态特征以及在ENSO（El Niño and Southern Oscillation）循环不同位相下的特征。本文同时对比分析了观测海温海冰驱动大气环流模式试验（AMIP试验）以及耦合模式的历史气候模拟试验（Historical试验）的结果。结果表明，模式能够合理地模拟出东亚夏季风环流和降水的气候态特征。相比大气模式，耦合模式能够明显改善对气候态的模拟，特别是耦合模式能够较好地模拟出副热带高压从6～8月向北以及向东移动的季节内演变特征。对于El Niño衰减年和La Niña年合成来说，大气模式能够在一定程度上模拟出El Niño衰减年（La Niña年）副高偏西（东）、对流减弱（增强）的特征，但是对于位置和强度的模拟存在偏差，特别是对于其季节内尺度的演变。耦合模式相比大气模式来说，并没有改善对于ENSO循环影响东亚夏季风季节内演变的模拟，这可能和耦合模式模拟的ENSO本身的偏差有关。因此要想改善对于东亚夏季风季节内演变及其年际差异的模拟，除了考虑海气相互作用之外，还需要改进模式对于ENSO的模拟效果。Abstract: In this study, the simulations of the subseasonal evolution of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) by BCC-CSM2-MR and BCC-ESM1 models, two models from the Beijing Climate Center participating in the 6th phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), are analyzed, including the characteristics of the climatological mean state and features in different ENSO phases. This study compares the results of the atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) experiments, in which the AGCM is driven by observed sea ice/sea surface temperature (AMIP experiment), with the results of the Historical experiment using the air-sea coupled model. Results show that both models can reasonably reproduce the climate mean state features of the circulation and precipitation associated with the EASM. Compared to the AGCM, the coupled model can significantly improve the simulation of the climate mean state of EASM. For instance, the coupled model simulates the subseasonal variation of the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) with northward and eastward shifts from June to August better. With respect to the composites for El Niño decaying years and La Niña years, the atmospheric model can simulate the westward extension (eastward retreat) of WPSH and the associated weakening (strengthening) of convection in El Niño decaying years (La Niña years) to some extent. However, there are deviations in the simulation of the location and intensity of WPSH and convection centers, particularly on a subseasonal scale. Compared to the AGCM, the coupled model does not appear to significantly improve the simulation of the subseasonal evolution of the EASM with the ENSO cycle, which may be caused by the deviation of the ENSO simulation in the coupled model. To improve the simulation of the subseasonal evolution of the EASM and its interannual variation with the ENSO phase, the simulation of ENSO in the coupled model should be enhanced.
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图 1 1979～2014年气候平均的（a）夏季、（b）6月、（c）7月、（d）8月平均降水量（阴影，单位：mm d−1）和850 hPa风场（箭头，单位：m/s）
Figure 1. Climatologically averaged (1979–2014) distributions of (a) summer mean, (b) June, (c) July, and (d) August precipitation (shaded, units: mm d−1) and 850-hPa winds (vector, units: m s−1)
图 2 BCC-CSM2-MR模式模拟的1979～2014年（a、e）夏季、（b、f）6月、（c、g）7月、（d、h）8月平均降水量（阴影，单位：mm d−1）和850 hPa风场（箭头，单位：m/s）：（a–d）AMIP试验；（e–h）Historical试验
Figure 2. (a, e) Summer, (b, f) June, (c, g) July, and (d, h) August mean precipitation (shaded, units: mm d−1) and 850-hPa winds (vector, units: m s−1) simulated by BCC-CSM2-MR model during 1979–2014: (a–d) AMIP experiment; (e–h) Historical experiment
图 4 （a–d）BCC-CSM2-MR模式和（e–h）BCC-ESM1模式模拟的1979～2014年（a、e）夏季、（b、f）6月、（c、g）7月、（d、h）8月平均降水量（阴影，单位：mm d−1）和850 hPa风场（箭头，单位：m/s）的Historical试验与AMIP试验模拟结果之差
Figure 4. Differences between the coupled Historical experiment and the uncoupled AMIP experiment of (a, e) summer, (b, f) June, (c, g) July, and (d, h) August mean precipitation (shaded, units: mm d−1) and 850-hPa winds (vector, units: m s−1) during 1979–2014: (a–d) BCC-CSM2-MR model; (e–h) BCC-ESM1 model
图 5 气候平均的（a）观测、（b、d）BCC-ESM1模式和（c、e）BCC-CSM2-MR模式模拟的副高5880 gpm线夏季平均（黑线）及6月、7月、8月季节内演变（彩线）：（b、c）AMIP试验；（d、e）Historical试验
Figure 5. Climatological summer mean and monthly locations of western Pacific subtropical high 5880-gpm lines at 500 hPa for (a) observation, (b, c) AMIP experiment, and (d, e) Historical experiment: (b, d) BCC-ESM1 model; (c, e) BCC-CSM2-MR model. The black and colored lines represent the summer (JJA) mean and monthly results, respectively
图 6 观测的El Niño衰减年合成的（a、b）6月、（c、d）7月和（e、f）8月850 hPa风场异常（箭头，单位：m s−1）、OLR异常（左列填色，单位：W m−2）、降水量异常（右列填色，单位：mm d−1）及副高5880 gpm线（绿线为气候态，黑线为衰减年合成），打点区通过90%置信水平检验
Figure 6. Composites of the 850-hPa winds anomalies (vectors, units: m s−1), OLR anomalies (shadings on the left panel, units: W m−2), precipitation anomalies (shadings on the right panel, units: mm d−1) and locations of western Pacific subtropical high 5880-gpm lines at 500 hPa in (a–b) June, (c–d) July, and (e–f) August for the El Niño decaying years in observation. The green and black lines represent climatology results and composites of 5880-gpm lines, respectively. The dots denote areas significant at the 90% confidence level
图 7 El Niño衰减年合成的BCC-CSM2-MR模式（左列）和BCC-ESM1模式（右列）AMIP试验（a、b）6月、（c、d）7月和（e、f）8月850 hPa风场异常（箭头，单位：m s−1）、OLR异常（填色，单位：W m−2）及副高5880 gpm线（绿线为气候态，黑线为衰减年合成），打点区通过90%置信水平检验
Figure 7. Composites of the 850-hPa winds anomalies (vector, units: m s−1), OLR anomalies (shaded, units: W m−2), and locations of western Pacific subtropical high 5880-gpm lines at 500 hPa in (a–b) June, (c–d) July, and (e–f) August simulated by AMIP experiment of BCC-CSM2-MR model (left column) and BCC-ESM1 model (right column) for the El Niño decaying years. The dots denote areas significant at the 90% confidence level
图 8 1900～2014年（a）BCC-CSM2-MR和（b）BCC-ESM1模式Historical试验的Niño3.4指数时间序列
Figure 8. Time series of Niño3.4 index for the Historical experiment of (a) BCC-CSM2-MR model and (b) BCC-ESM1 model during 1900–2014
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