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国家气候中心两个CMIP6模式模拟的东亚夏季风的季节内演变

Subseasonal Evolution of the East Asian Summer Monsoon Simulated by Two BCC Climate Models Participating in CMIP6

  • 摘要: 分析了国家气候中心两个参加第六次国际耦合模式比较计划(CMIP6)的模式BCC-CSM2-MR和BCC-ESM1对东亚夏季风季节内演变的模拟情况,包括气候态特征以及在ENSO(El Niño and Southern Oscillation)循环不同位相下的特征。本文同时对比分析了观测海温海冰驱动大气环流模式试验(AMIP试验)以及耦合模式的历史气候模拟试验(Historical试验)的结果。结果表明,模式能够合理地模拟出东亚夏季风环流和降水的气候态特征。相比大气模式,耦合模式能够明显改善对气候态的模拟,特别是耦合模式能够较好地模拟出副热带高压从6~8月向北以及向东移动的季节内演变特征。对于El Niño衰减年和La Niña年合成来说,大气模式能够在一定程度上模拟出El Niño衰减年(La Niña年)副高偏西(东)、对流减弱(增强)的特征,但是对于位置和强度的模拟存在偏差,特别是对于其季节内尺度的演变。耦合模式相比大气模式来说,并没有改善对于ENSO循环影响东亚夏季风季节内演变的模拟,这可能和耦合模式模拟的ENSO本身的偏差有关。因此要想改善对于东亚夏季风季节内演变及其年际差异的模拟,除了考虑海气相互作用之外,还需要改进模式对于ENSO的模拟效果。

     

    Abstract: In this study, the simulations of the subseasonal evolution of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) by BCC-CSM2-MR and BCC-ESM1 models, two models from the Beijing Climate Center participating in the 6th phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), are analyzed, including the characteristics of the climatological mean state and features in different ENSO phases. This study compares the results of the atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) experiments, in which the AGCM is driven by observed sea ice/sea surface temperature (AMIP experiment), with the results of the Historical experiment using the air-sea coupled model. Results show that both models can reasonably reproduce the climate mean state features of the circulation and precipitation associated with the EASM. Compared to the AGCM, the coupled model can significantly improve the simulation of the climate mean state of EASM. For instance, the coupled model simulates the subseasonal variation of the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) with northward and eastward shifts from June to August better. With respect to the composites for El Niño decaying years and La Niña years, the atmospheric model can simulate the westward extension (eastward retreat) of WPSH and the associated weakening (strengthening) of convection in El Niño decaying years (La Niña years) to some extent. However, there are deviations in the simulation of the location and intensity of WPSH and convection centers, particularly on a subseasonal scale. Compared to the AGCM, the coupled model does not appear to significantly improve the simulation of the subseasonal evolution of the EASM with the ENSO cycle, which may be caused by the deviation of the ENSO simulation in the coupled model. To improve the simulation of the subseasonal evolution of the EASM and its interannual variation with the ENSO phase, the simulation of ENSO in the coupled model should be enhanced.

     

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