Projection of Population in Rural Revitalization Areas of China under Climate Change Scenario and Its Application in Drought Disaster Impact Assessment
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摘要: 根据IPCC提出的共享社会经济路径（SSPs），本文以中国14个乡村振兴核心区为研究区，结合中国当前人口特征设定不同SSPs路径下本地化人口预估参数，采用人口—发展—环境（PDE）模型，预估2020～2040年人口变化特征。结合SSPs-RCPs情景下多模式的干旱评估结果，探讨未来乡村振兴核心区干旱暴露人口较基准期（1995～2014年）的变化特征。结果表明：（1）SSP1、SSP4和SSP5路径下中国乡村振兴核心区未来人口呈下降趋势，SSP2路径下人口保持稳定，SSP3路径下人口持续增长，各路径下2040年达到2.30×109～2.66×109人，且占全国比重16.7%～18.1%。（2）年龄结构上，SSP1、SSP4和SSP5路径下2040年的老龄人口比重大，新生人数极少，可能存在老龄化问题；SSP2路径下年龄结构相对均衡；SSP3路径下，新生人口数量较高，劳动人口相对较多。（3）2020～2040年，除SSP3-7.0情景外，其他情景下年平均干旱灾害频次和年平均干旱灾害暴露人口较基准期均呈增加趋势。各SSPs-RCPs情景下干旱灾害暴露人口变化的空间格局较一致，超过60%的区域较基准期呈增加趋势，其中西南及中部地区增加幅度最高，大别山片区等局部区域暴露度略有降低。（4）不同年龄段受干旱灾害影响程度不一，SSP3-7.0情景下少儿人口暴露于干旱灾害较多，老年人口则在SSP5-8.5情景下受影响程度更大。
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关键词:
- 共享社会经济路径（SSPs） /
- 中国乡村振兴核心区 /
- 人口预估 /
- 人口年龄结构 /
- 干旱暴露度
Abstract: In this study, 14 rural revitalization areas of China were selected as the study areas. The localized population parameters for the population development environment (PDE) model under different shared socio-economic paths (SSPs) were set by considering China’s population characteristics. Then, the population change characteristics of the 14 rural revitalization areas from 2020 to 2040 were estimated based on the PDE model. Combined with the multimodel drought assessment results under shared socioeconomic pathway–representative concentration pathway (SSP–RCP) scenarios, the change characteristics of drought exposed population in the future were compared with a baseline period (1995–2014). The results show that: (1) The population of China’s rural revitalization areas under SSP1, SSP4, and SSP5 scenarios show a downward trend; the population under the SSP2 remains stable and that under the SSP3 continues to grow; the population under each SSP scenario is projected to be 230–266 million in 2040, accounting for 16.7%–18.1% of China’s population. (2) In terms of the age structure, the proportion of the elderly population in 2040 under SSP1, SSP4, and SSP5 scenarios are relatively higher, and the number of freshmen is very small, which may result in an aging problem; the age structure is relatively balanced under the SSP2 scenario, the newborn population is high, and the working population is relatively large under the SSP3. (3) The annual average drought frequency and exposed population from 2020 to 2040 under all the SSP–RCP scenarios except for SSP3–7.0 are projected to increase compared with the baseline period; the spatial pattern of the change of population exposed to drought is relatively consistent under different SSP–RCP scenarios; more than 60% of the regions are projected to increase compared with the reference period, among which the increased range is the highest in the southwest and central regions. In contrast, the exposed population in Dabie Mountain Area is projected to decrease slightly. (4) Different age groups are affected by drought to varying degrees; children are more exposed to drought under the SSP3–7.0 scenario, while the elderly are more affected under the SSP5–8.5 scenario. -
图 2 2010～2016年中国乡村振兴核心区人口数变化
Figure 2. Changes in population in the rural revitalization areas in China from 2010 to 2016
图 3 2016年中国乡村振兴核心区人口密度分布
Figure 3. Population density distribution of the rural revitalization areas in China in 2016
图 4 2020～2040年中国乡村振兴核心区（a）人口总数、（b）人口占全国比重
Figure 4. Population of the rural revitalization areas in China from 2020 to 2040: (a) Total population; (b) proportion of the population in the whole country
图 5 2040年SSPs路径下中国乡村振兴核心区不同年龄段和性别的人口结构：（a）SSP1；（b）SSP2；（c）SSP3；（d）SSP4；（e）SSP5
Figure 5. Population structure of different age groups and genders in the rural revitalization areas under SSPs in 2040: (a) SSP1; (b) SSP2; (c) SSP3; (d) SSP4; (e) SSP5
图 6 SSPs-RCPs情景下中国乡村振兴核心区基准期和未来时期的（a）年平均干旱灾害频次、（b）年平均干旱灾害暴露人口（REF表示基准期）
Figure 6. Annual average (a) population exposed to drought disasters and (b) frequency of drought disasters in the past and future of the rural revitalization areas in China, under SSPs–RCPs (REF refers to the baseline period )
图 7 SSPs-RCPs情景下中国乡村振兴核心区年干旱灾害暴露人口较历史基准时期变化：（a）SSP1-2.6；（b）SSP2-4.5；（c）SSP3-7.0；（d）SSP4-6.0；（e）SSP5-8.5
Figure 7. Changes of annual drought disaster exposed population in the rural revitalization areas in China compared with historical benchmark period under SSPs–RCPs: (a) SSP1-2.6; (b) SSP2-4.5; (c) SSP3-7.0; (d) SSP4-6.0; (e) SSP5-8.5
图 8 SSPs-RCPs情景下中国乡村振兴核心区2020～2040年平均干旱灾害暴露人口年龄结构分布
Figure 8. Age structure of the average drought disaster exposed population in China’s rural revitalization areas under SSPs–RCPs in 2020–2040
表 1 SSPs路径下人口相关参数假设
Table 1. Hypothesis of population-related parameters under shared socio-economic paths (SSPs)
路径 出生率 死亡率 迁移率 SSP1 低 低 中 SSP2 中 中 中 SSP3 高 高 低 SSP4 低 中 中 SSP5 低 低 高 
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表 2 2010～2040年中国不同生育率等级假设下的总和生育率
Table 2. Total fertility rate of different grade fertility level hypotheses in China from 2010 to 2040
生育率等级假设 总和生育率 2010年 2015年 2020年 2025年 2030年 2035年 2040年 低 1.18 1.52 1.67 1.53 1.44 1.42 1.40 中 1.18 1.60 1.85 1.80 1.80 1.80 1.80 高 1.18 1.68 2.04 2.07 2.16 2.18 2.20
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表 3 SPEI干旱条件分类
Table 3. Classification of the dry conditions of Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI)
SPEI 类别 0～−0.99 基本正常 −1～−1.49 轻度干旱 −1.5～−1.99 严重干旱 ≤−2.0 极度干旱
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