气候变化背景下黄河流域植被变化及其成因

赵倩倩; 李建华; 张桂琴; 石云

doi:10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2021.21115

气候变化背景下黄河流域植被变化及其成因

doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2021.21115

宁夏大学地理科学与规划学院，银川 750021

基金项目: 国家重点研发计划项目2018YFC1507704，国家自然科学基金项目41361031、41975115，中国工程院院地合作重大战略研究项目2021NXZD8

详细信息

作者简介:
赵倩倩，女，1995年出生，硕士研究生，主要研究方向为GIS方法及在气候变化研究中的应用。E-mail: 15656542395@163.com

通讯作者:
李建华，E-mail: klijh@nxu.edu.cn

中图分类号: Q948
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- 文章访问数: 536
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- 被引次数: 0
出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2021-06-30
- 网络出版日期: 2021-12-24
- 刊出日期: 2022-01-25

Vegetation Changes and Their Causes in the Yellow River Basin under the Background of Climate Change

School of Geography and Planning, Ningxia University, Yinchuan 750021

Funds: National Key Research and Development Program of China (Grant 2018YFC1507704), National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grants 41361031and 41975115), Major Strategic Research Projects of Institute Local Cooperation of Chinese Academy of Engineering (Grant 2021NXZD8)

摘要

摘要: 研究黄河流域植被的时空变化及其影响因素，对生态文明建设政策的制定具有重要意义。基于2001～2020年MODIS（Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer）植被指数（Normalized Different Vegetation Index，NDVI）数据集及同期气象数据，运用均值法、一元线性回归、偏相关性分析和回归残差法等方法研究了近20年黄河流域植被时空变化及驱动因素。结果表明：黄河流域NDVI整体呈上升趋势并具有较大的空间异质性，其中黄河中游NDVI增长幅度最大，为0.0496 (10 a)⁻¹。生长季受降水和沿黄灌区耕作的影响，西部地区、东南部区域和宁夏平原、河套平原植被指数明显较高；从整个流域来看，降水和温度变化对NDVI的贡献分别为32.6%和15.9%，其中降水对NDVI变化的贡献主要体现在黄河上游（50.7%），而温度的贡献则在黄河下游表现最突出（32.3%）；20年来，人类活动和气候变化分别对黄河流域植被变化贡献了78%和22%，其中人类活动贡献率超过80%的区域主要集中在黄土高原中部区域；整个黄河流域NDVI与干旱程度有显著的正相关性，尤其在陇中黄土高原和河东沙区等区域。黄河上游NDVI与改进的帕默尔干旱指数scPDSI的相关性最高，而下游相对较低。
- 黄河流域 /
- NDVI数据 /
- 时空变化 /
- 气候因子 /
- 人类活动 /
- 干旱
Abstract: Understanding the spatiotemporal variations of vegetation in the Yellow River basin and their influencing factors is important to formulate policies for the construction of ecological civilization. Based on the MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) vegetation index (normalized difference vegetation index, NDVI) data and meteorological observations from 2001 to 2020, this study investigates the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics and driving factors of vegetation through the mean method, unary linear regression, partial correlation analysis, and multivariate residual trend analysis. The results show that the increased NDVI dominates most of the Yellow River basin but with large spatiotemporal variability. In particular, the largest increased NDVI approaches to 0.0496 per 10 years in the middle reaches of the Yellow River basin. In the growing season, areas with significantly positive NDVI increase mainly in the western and southeastern of the Yellow River basin, most evidently in irrigated areas along the Ningxia and Hetao Plain. Both precipitation and temperature play an important role in the NDVI changes for most areas of the Yellow River basin. For the Yellow River basin as a whole, contributions from the precipitation and temperature to the NDVI change approach to 32.6% and 15.9%, respectively. Contributions from the precipitation are mainly found in the upper reaches (50.7%), while those from the temperature are mainly seen in the lower reaches (32.3%). On the other hand, human activities and climate change can account for 78% and 22% of the NDVI changes in the Yellow River basin, respectively. In particular, contributions from human activities are more than 80% in the central region of the Loess Plateau. Meanwhile, the drought is also a key driver to cause the increased NDVI changes in the Loess Plateau in central Gansu and the Hedong sand area (with a correlation of 0.6), which is especially higher in the upper reaches of the Yellow River basin.
- Yellow River basin /
- NDVI index /
- Spatiotemporal variations /
- Climate factors /
- Human activities /
- Drought

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图 1 黄河流域地势图

Figure 1. Topographic map of the Yellow River basin

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图 2 2001～2020年黄河流域及其3个子流域（黄河上游、中游、下游）月际NDVI变化曲线

Figure 2. Monthly NDVI variation curves of the Yellow River basin and its three sub-basins (upper reaches, middle reaches, and lower reaches of the Yellow River) from 2001 to 2020

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图 3 2001～2020年黄河流域及其3个子流域NDVI时间序列。 y1、y2、y3和y4分别是4个区域NDVI随时间变化的线性趋势，均通过了0.05的显著性检验

Figure 3. NDVI time series of the Yellow River basin and its three sub-basins from 2001 to 2020. y1, y2, y3, and y4 represent the linear trends of the NDVI with time over these four regions, respectively. All of them are statistically significant at the 0.05 level

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图 4 2001～2020年黄河流域年际平均（第一行）和生长季平均（第二行）（a、d）NDVI平均值、（b、e）NDVI变化趋势（单位：a⁻¹）以及（c、f）NDVI变化趋势显著性空间分布

Figure 4. Spatial distribution of the annual averaged (first line) and growing season averaged (second line) (a, d) NDVI, (b, e) trend of NDVI (units: a⁻¹), and (c, f) significance of the NDVI trend in the Yellow River basin from 2001 to 2020

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图 5 2001～2020年黄河流域NDVI与（a、b）温度及（c、d）降水量偏相关系数以及显著性的空间分布：（a、c）偏相关系数；（b、d）显著性

Figure 5. Spatial distribution of partial correlation correlations and significance between the NDVI and (a, c) temperature and (b, d) precipitation in the Yellow River basin from 2001 to 2020: (a, c) Partial correlation; (b, d) significance

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图 6 2001～2020年（a）黄河流域及其（b）上游、（c）中游、（c）下游3个子流域NDVI与温度时间序列。y1和y2分别表示NDVI和气温随时间变化的线性趋势；R是NDVI和温度时间序列的相关系数；*代表通过了0.05的显著性检验

Figure 6. Time series of the NDVI and temperature in (a) the Yellow River basin and the (b) upper reaches, (c) middle reaches, and (d) lower reaches of the Yellow River from 2001 to 2020. y1 and y2 represent the linear trends of the NDVI and temperature, respectively; R is the correlation coefficient between the NDVI and temperature time series; the number with an asterisk is statistically significant at the 0.05 level

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图 7 2001～2020年（a）黄河流域及其（b）上游、（c）中游、（c）下游3个子流域NDVI与降水量时间序列。y1和y2分别表示NDVI和降水随时间变化的线性趋势；R是NDVI和降水时间序列的相关系数；*代表通过了0.05的显著性检验

Figure 7. Time series of the partial correlation analysis between the NDVI and precipitation in (a) the Yellow River basin and the (b) upper reaches, (c) middle reaches, and (d) lower reaches of the Yellow River from 2001 to 2020. y1 and y2 represent the linear trends of the NDVI and precipitation, respectively; R is the correlation coefficient between the NDVI and precipitation time series; the number with an asterisk is statistically significant at the 0.05 level

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图 8 2001～2020年黄河流域NDVI受（a）气候变化和（b）人类活动影响的变化趋势以及（c）气候变化和（d）人类活动对黄河流域NDVI变化贡献率的空间分布

Figure 8. Spatial distribution of the impacts of (a) climatic and (b) human activities change trend and contribution of (c) climate change and (d) human activities to the NDVI in the Yellow River basin from 2001 to 2020

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图 9 2001～2020年黄河流域scPDSI（a）平均态和（b）变化趋势的空间分布

Figure 9. Spatial distribution of (a) the average state and (b) change trend of the scPDSI in the Yellow River basin from 2001 to 2020

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图 10 2001～2020年黄河流域NDVI与scPDSI（a）相关系数分布和（b）散点图

Figure 10. Spatial distribution of (a) correlation and (b) scatter plot between the NDVI and scPDSI in the Yellow River basin from 2001 to 2020

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图 11 2001～2020年（a）黄河流域及其（b）上游、（c）中游、（c）下游3个子流域NDVI与scPDSI时间序列。y1和y2分别表示NDVI和干旱随时间变化的线性趋势；R是NDVI和干旱时间序列的相关系数；*代表通过了0.05的显著性检验

Figure 11. Time series of correlation analysis between the NDVI and drought in (a) the Yellow River basin and the (b) upper reaches, (c) middle reaches, and (d) lower reaches of the Yellow River from 2001 to 2020. y1 and y2 represent the linear trend of the NDVI and drought, respectively; R is the correlation coefficient between the NDVI and drought time series; the number with an asterisk is statistically significant at the 0.05 level

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表 1 不同驱动因素下气候变化和人类活动对NDVI贡献率计算方法

Table 1. Calculation method of the contribution rate of climate change and human activities to the NDVI under different driving factors

NDVI实测值斜率	NDVI的模拟值斜率	NDVI残差值斜率	气候变化贡献率	人类活动贡献率	驱动因素
>0（植被改善）	>0	>0	NDVI的模拟值斜率/NDVI 实测值斜率×100%	NDVI的残差值斜率/NDVI 实测值斜率×100%	气候变化和人类活动共同促进植被改善
	>0	<0	100%	0	气候变化导致植被改善
	<0	>0	0	100%	人类活动导致植被改善
<0（植被退化）	<0	<0	NDVI的模拟值斜率/NDVI 实测值斜率×100%	NDVI的残差值斜率/NDVI 实测值斜率×100%	气候变化和人类活动共同促进植被退化
	<0	>0	100%	0	气候变化导致植被退化
	>0	<0	0	100%	人类活动导致植被退化

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