高级检索

留言板

尊敬的读者、作者、审稿人, 关于本刊的投稿、审稿、编辑和出版的任何问题, 您可以本页添加留言。我们将尽快给您答复。谢谢您的支持!

姓名
邮箱
手机号码
标题
留言内容
验证码

气候变化影响中国粮食安全研究的新思路

丑洁明 董文杰 徐洪 涂钢

丑洁明, 董文杰, 徐洪, 等. 2022. 气候变化影响中国粮食安全研究的新思路[J]. 气候与环境研究, 27(1): 206−216 doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2021.21148
引用本文: 丑洁明, 董文杰, 徐洪, 等. 2022. 气候变化影响中国粮食安全研究的新思路[J]. 气候与环境研究, 27(1): 206−216 doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2021.21148
CHOU Jieming, DONG Wenjie, XU Hong, et al. 2022. New Ideas for Research on the Impact of Climate Change on China’s Food Security [J]. Climatic and Environmental Research (in Chinese), 27 (1): 206−216 doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2021.21148
Citation: CHOU Jieming, DONG Wenjie, XU Hong, et al. 2022. New Ideas for Research on the Impact of Climate Change on China’s Food Security [J]. Climatic and Environmental Research (in Chinese), 27 (1): 206−216 doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2021.21148

气候变化影响中国粮食安全研究的新思路

doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2021.21148
基金项目: 国家自然科学基金面上项目 42075167,国家重点研发计划项 2018YFC1509003
详细信息
    作者简介:

    丑洁明,女,1965年出生,博士,教授,主要从事气候变化经济学研究。E-mail: choujm@bnu.edu.cn

  • 中图分类号: P49

New Ideas for Research on the Impact of Climate Change on China’s Food Security

Funds: Funded by National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant 42075167), National Key Research and Development Program of China (Grant 2018YFC1509003)
  • 摘要: 鉴于气候变化影响粮食安全问题的特殊性和复杂性,本文试图从自然科学和社会科学的交叉研究入手,提出一种新的研究的思路和方法,即:运用计量经济学模型对气候变化数据进行统计分析,使用计量经济学方法来评估气候这一外部驱动因素引发的社会经济系统变化与观测到的气候变化引发的社会经济系统变化之间的关系;在厘清“气候变化影响量”对粮食产量的影响的基础上,预估我国未来30年特别是经济社会发展两个关键节点2035年和2050年的粮食生产的气候变化风险,文章给出了一种新的研究视角,构建了研究内容和研究方法,力争实现定性研究与定量研究相结合,以科学预测为政策指导提供有力支撑。
  • 图  1  研究方法及技术路线图

    Figure  1.  Research methods and technical routes

  • [1] Aengenheyster M, Feng Q Y, van der Ploeg F, et al. 2018. The point of no return for climate action: Effects of climate uncertainty and risk tolerance [J]. Earth Syst. Dyn., 9(3): 1085−1095. doi: 10.5194/esd-9-1085-2018
    [2] Battisti D S, Naylor R L. 2009. Historical warnings of future food insecurity with unprecedented seasonal heat [J]. Science, 323(5911): 240−244. doi: 10.1126/science.1164363
    [3] Cantelaube P, Terres J M, Doblas-Reyes F J. 2004. Influence of climate variability on European agriculture—Analysis of winter wheat production [J]. Climate Res., 27(2): 135−144. doi: 10.3354/cr027135
    [4] Chen K Z, Hsu C. 2014. Managing climate change risk in China’s agricultural sector: The potential for an integrated risk management framework [J]. J. Integr. Agric., 13(7): 1418−1431. doi: 10.1016/S2095-3119(14)60820-0
    [5] 陈丽娟, 李维京, 张培群, 等. 2003. 降尺度技术在月降水预报中的应用 [J]. 应用气象学报, 14(6): 648−655. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1001-7313.2003.06.002

    Chen Lijuan, Li Weijing, Zhang Peiqun, et al. 2003. Application of a new downscaling model to monthly precipitation forecast [J]. J. Appl. Meteor. (in Chinese), 14(6): 648−655. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1001-7313.2003.06.002
    [6] Chen C, Zhou G S, Pang Y M. 2015. Impacts of climate change on maize and winter wheat yields in China from 1961 to 2010 based on provincial data [J]. J. Agric. Sci., 153(5): 825−836. doi: 10.1017/S0021859614001154
    [7] Chen Y F, Wu Z G, Okamoto K, et al. 2013. The impacts of climate change on crops in China: A Ricardian analysis [J]. Global and Planetary Change, 104: 61−74. doi: 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2013.01.005
    [8] 丑洁明, 叶笃正. 2006. 构建一个经济—气候新模型评价气候变化对粮食产量的影响 [J]. 气候与环境研究, 11(3): 347−353. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2006.03.11

    Chou Jieming, Ye Duzheng. 2006. Assessing the effect of climate changes on grains yields with a new economy−climate model [J]. Climatic and Environmental Research (in Chinese), 11(3): 347−353. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2006.03.11
    [9] 丑洁明, 封国林, 董文杰, 等. 2004. 气候变化影响下我国农业经济评价问题探讨 [J]. 气候与环境研究, 9(2): 361−368. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1006-9585.2004.02.012

    Chou J M, Feng G L, Dong W J, et al. 2004. A new approach on the economy evaluation of influence on China agriculture by climate change [J]. Climatic and Environmental Research (in Chinese), 9(2): 361−368. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1006-9585.2004.02.012
    [10] Chou J M, Dong W J, Feng G L. 2010. Application of an economy−climate model to assess the impact of climate change [J]. Adv. Atmos. Sci., 27(4): 957−965. doi: 10.1007/s00376-009-8166-8
    [11] 丑洁明, 董文杰, 封国林. 2011. 定量评估气候变化影响经济产出的方法 [J]. 科学通报, 56(10): 725–727. Chou J M, Dong W J, Feng G L. 2011. The methodology of quantitative assess economic output of climate change [J]. Chinese Sci. Bull., 56(13): 1333−1335. doi: 10.1007/s11434-011-4429-8
    [12] Chou J M, Xu Y, Dong W J, et al. 2019. Comprehensive climate factor characteristics and quantitative analysis of their impacts on grain yields in China’s grain-producing areas [J]. Heliyon, 5(12): e02846. doi: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2019.e02846
    [13] 崔明明, 聂常虹. 2019. 基于指标评价体系的我国粮食安全演变研究 [J]. 中国科学院院刊, 34(8): 910−919. doi: 10.16418/j.issn.1000-3045.2019.08.009

    Cui Mingming, Nie Changhong. 2019. Study on food security in China based on evaluation index system [J]. Bull. Chinese Acad. Sci. (in Chinese), 34(8): 910−919. doi: 10.16418/j.issn.1000-3045.2019.08.009
    [14] Dai S W, Shulski M D, Hubbard K G, et al. 2016. A spatiotemporal analysis of Midwest US temperature and precipitation trends during the growing season from 1980 to 2013 [J]. Int. J. Climatol., 36(1): 517−525. doi: 10.1002/joc.4354
    [15] Darwin R. 1999. The impact of global warming on agriculture: A Ricardian analysis: Comment [J]. American Economic Review, 89(4): 1049−1052. doi: 10.1257/aer.89.4.1049
    [16] 丁一汇, 王会军. 2016. 近百年中国气候变化科学问题的新认识 [J]. 科学通报, 61(10): 1029−1041. doi: 10.1360/N972015-00638

    Ding Yihui, Wang Huijun. 2016. Newly acquired knowledge on the scientific issues related to climate change over the recent 100 years in China [J]. Chinese Sci. Bull. (in Chinese), 61(10): 1029−1041. doi: 10.1360/N972015-00638
    [17] Dong W J, Chou J M, Feng G L. 2007. A new economic assessment index for the impact of climate change on grain yield [J]. Adv. Atmos. Sci., 24(2): 336−342. doi: 10.1007/s00376-007-0336-y
    [18] 方修琦, 王媛, 徐锬, 等. 2004. 近20年气候变暖对黑龙江省水稻增产的贡献 [J]. 地理学报, 59(6): 820−828. doi: 10.3321/j.issn:0375-5444.2004.06.003

    Fang Xiuqi, Wang Yuan, Xu Tan, et al. 2004. Contribution of climate warming to rice yield in Heilongjiang Province [J]. Acta Geogr. Sinica (in Chinese), 59(6): 820−828. doi: 10.3321/j.issn:0375-5444.2004.06.003
    [19] 符琳, 李维京, 张培群, 等. 2011. 用经济—气候模型模拟粮食单产的方法探讨 [J]. 气候变化研究进展, 7(5): 330−335. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1673-1719.2011.05.004

    Fu Lin, Li Weijing, Zhang Peiqun, et al. 2011. Improvement of economy−climate model and its application in assessing the grain yield of Jilin Province [J]. Adv. Climate Change Res. (in Chinese), 7(5): 330−335. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1673-1719.2011.05.004
    [20] Ghahramani A, Kokic P N, Moore A D, et al. 2015. The value of adapting to climate change in Australian wheat farm systems: Farm to cross-regional scale [J]. Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment, 211: 112−125. doi: 10.1016/j.agee.2015.05.011
    [21] Giorgi F. 2006. Climate change hot-spots [J]. Geophys. Res. Lett., 33(8): L08707. doi: 10.1029/2006GL025734
    [22] 黄秉维. 1958. 中国综合自然区划的初步草案 [J]. 地理学报, 24(4): 348−365. doi: 10.11821/xb195804002

    Huang Bingwei. 1958. The preliminary draft of China’s comprehensive natural regionalization [J]. Acta Geogr. Sinica (in Chinese), 24(4): 348−365. doi: 10.11821/xb195804002
    [23] 黄嘉佑, 李庆祥. 2015. 气象数据统计分析方法[M]. 北京: 气象出版社, 506.

    Huang Jiayou, Li Qingxiang. 2015. Statistical Analysis Methods of Meteorological Data (in Chinese) [M]. Beijing: China Meteorological Press, 506.
    [24] 黄德林, 李新兴. 2016. 适应气候变化的我国区域粮食生产安全问题研究——基于多区域动态CGE模型 [C]//2016中国环境科学学会学术年会论文集(第四卷). 北京: 《中国学术期刊(光盘版)》电子杂志社, 4737−4781. Huang Delin, Li Xinxing. 2016. Research on my country’s regional food production security to adapt to climate change-based on multi-regional dynamic CGE model [C]//Beijing: China Academic Qikan(Guangpanban)Dianzi Magazine Agency, 4737−4781.
    [25] 黄德林, 李喜明, 鞠劭芃. 2016. 气候变化对中国粮食生产、消费及经济增长的影响研究——基于中国农业一般均衡模型 [J]. 中国农学通报, 32(20): 165−176. doi: 10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.casb15110151

    Huang Delin, Li Ximing, Ju Shaopeng. 2016. Climate change affecting grain production, consumption and economic growth in China: Based on the agricultural CGE model [J]. Chinese Agric. Sci. Bull. (in Chinese), 32(20): 165−176. doi: 10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.casb15110151
    [26] 黄建平, 陈文, 温之平, 等. 2019. 新中国成立70年以来的中国大气科学研究: 气候与气候变化篇 [J]. 中国科学: 地球科学, 49(10): 1607–1640. Huang J P, Chen W, Wen Z P, et al. 2019. Review of Chinese atmospheric science research over the past 70 years: Climate and climate change [J]. Sci. China Earth Sci., 62(10): 1514–1550. doi: 10.1360/SSTe-2019-0125
    [27] IPCC. 2013. Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [M]. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 121pp.
    [28] 金之庆, 葛道阔, 郑喜莲, 等. 1996. 评价全球气候变化对我国玉米生产的可能影响 [J]. 作物学报, 22(5): 513−524. doi: 10.3321/j.issn:0496-3490.1996.05.001

    Jin Zhiqing, Ge Daokuo, Zheng Xilian, et al. 1996. Evaluation of the possible impact of global climate change on corn production in my country [J]. Acta Agron. Sinica (in Chinese), 22(5): 513−524. doi: 10.3321/j.issn:0496-3490.1996.05.001
    [29] 李祎君, 王春乙, 赵蓓, 等. 2010. 气候变化对中国农业气象灾害与病虫害的影响 [J]. 农业工程学报, 26(S1): 263−271.

    Li Yijun, Wang Chunyi, Zhao Bei, et al. 2010. Effects of climate change on agricultural meteorological disaster and crop insects diseases [J]. Trans. CSAE (in Chinese), 26(S1): 263−271.
    [30] 李依婵, 李育, 朱耿睿. 2018. 一种新的气候变化敏感区的定义方法与预估 [J]. 地理学报, 73(7): 1283−1295. doi: 10.11821/dlxb201807008

    Li Yichan, Li Yu, Zhu Gengrui. 2018. A new definition method of climate-sensitive region and its prediction [J]. Acta Geogr. Sinica (in Chinese), 73(7): 1283−1295. doi: 10.11821/dlxb201807008
    [31] 梁玉莲, 韩明臣, 延晓冬, 等. 2016. 基于CMIP5模式的中国气候变化敏感性预估与分析 [J]. 气象科学, 36(2): 158−164. doi: 10.3969/2015jms.0039

    Liang Yulian, Han Mingchen, Yan Xiaodong, et al. 2016. CMIP5 model-based prediction and sensitivity analysis of climate change in China [J]. J. Meteor. Sci. (in Chinese), 36(2): 158−164. doi: 10.3969/2015jms.0039
    [32] 刘颖杰, 林而达. 2007. 气候变暖对中国不同地区农业的影响 [J]. 气候变化研究进展, 3(4): 229−233. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1673-1719.2007.04.008

    Liu Yingjie, Lin Erda. 2007. Effects of climate change on agriculture in different regions of China [J]. Adv. Climate Change Res. (in Chinese), 3(4): 229−233. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1673-1719.2007.04.008
    [33] Lobell D B, Burke M B, Tebaldi C, et al. 2008. Prioritizing climate change adaptation needs for food security in 2030 [J]. Science, 319(5863): 607−610. doi: 10.1126/SCIENCE.1152339
    [34] Mendelsohn R, Nordhaus W D, Shaw D. 1994. The impact of global warming on agriculture: A Ricardian analysis [J]. Am. Econ. Rev., 84(4): 753−771.
    [35] Mendelsohn R, Nordhaus W, Shaw D. 1996. Climate impacts on aggregate farm value: Accounting for adaptation [J]. Agric. Forest Meteor., 80(1): 55−66. doi: 10.1016/0168-1923(95)02316-X
    [36] Peng S B, Huang J L, Sheehy J E, et al. 2004. Rice yields decline with higher night temperature from global warming [J]. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 101(27): 9971−9975. doi: 10.1073/pnas.0403720101
    [37] Piao S L, Ciais P, Huang Y, et al. 2010. The impacts of climate change on water resources and agriculture in China [J]. Nature, 467(7311): 43−51. doi: 10.1038/nature09364
    [38] 覃志豪, 唐华俊, 李文娟, 等. 2013. 气候变化对农业和粮食生产影响的研究进展与发展方向 [J]. 中国农业资源与区划, 34(5): 1−7. doi: 10.7621/cjarrp.1005-9121.20130501

    Qin Zhihao, Tang Huajun, Li Wenjuan, et al. 2013. Progress and directions in studying the impacts of climate change on agriculture and grain production in China [J]. Chinese Journal of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning (in Chinese), 34(5): 1−7. doi: 10.7621/cjarrp.1005-9121.20130501
    [39] Rosenzweig C, Tubiello F N. 1996. Effects of changes in minimum and maximum temperature on wheat yields in the central US a simulation study [J]. Agric. Forest Meteor., 80(2−4): 215−230. doi: 10.1016/0168-1923(95)02299-6
    [40] 宋艳玲. 2007. 现代及未来气候变化对我国冬小麦的影响 [D]. 中国科学院大气物理研究所博士学位论文, 157pp. Song Yanling. 2007. The impact of modern and future climate change on winter wheat in China [D]. Ph. D. dissertation (in Chinese), Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, 157pp.
    [41] Tao F L, Hayashi Y, Zhang Z, et al. 2008. Global warming, rice production, and water use in China: Developing a probabilistic assessment [J]. Agric. Forest Meteor., 148(1): 94−110. doi: 10.1016/j.agrformet.2007.09.012
    [42] 陶生才, 许吟隆, 刘珂, 等. 2011. 基于作物模型的气候变化适应技术模拟研究 [C]//第28届中国气象学会年会—S11气象与现代农业. 厦门: 中国气象学会, 103−109. Tao Shengcai, Xu Yinlong, Liu Ke, et al. 2011. Simulation research on climate change adaptation technology based on crop model [C]//S11 Meteorology and Modern Agriculture—The 28th Annul Symposium of Chinese Meteorological Society (in Chinese). Xiamen: Chinese Meteorological Society, 103−109.
    [43] Tubiello F N, Soussana J F, Howden S M. 2007. Crop and pasture response to climate change [J]. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 104(50): 19686−19690. doi: 10.1073/pnas.0701728104
    [44] 王馥棠. 2003. 气候变化对农业生态的影响[M]. 北京: 气象出版社, 180pp.

    Wang Futang. 2003. The Impact of Climate Change on Agricultural Ecology (in Chinese) [M]. Beijing: China Meteorological Press, 180pp.
    [45] 王新华. 2013. 我国粮食进出口、国内粮价与国际粮价的互动关系研究 [J]. 统计与决策, (14): 118−121. doi: 10.13546/j.cnki.tjyjc.2013.14.034

    Wang Xinhua. 2013. Research on grain imports-exports of China and it’s interactions with both domestic and international prices [J]. Statistics and Decision (in Chinese), (14): 118−121. doi: 10.13546/j.cnki.tjyjc.2013.14.034
    [46] 王太祥, 董舒婷. 2018. 气候变化对我国棉花产量的影响——基于C-D-C模型的实证分析 [J]. 江苏农业科学, 46(24): 383−386. doi: 10.15889/j.issn.1002-1302.2018.24.098

    Wang Taixiang, Dong Shuting. 2018. Impact of climate change on China’s cotton production—Empirical analysis based on provincial panel data [J]. Jiangsu Agric. Sci. (in Chinese), 46(24): 383−386. doi: 10.15889/j.issn.1002-1302.2018.24.098
    [47] Wang J X, Mendelsohn R, Dinar A, et al. 2009. The impact of climate change on China’s agriculture [J]. Agric. Econ., 40(3): 323−337. doi: 10.1111/j.1574-0862.2009.00379.x
    [48] Wang X B, Cai D X, Grant C, et al. 2015. Factors controlling regional grain yield in China over the last 20 years [J]. Agron. Sustain. Dev., 35(3): 1127−1138. doi: 10.1007/s13593-015-0288-z
    [49] 吴普特, 赵西宁. 2010. 气候变化对中国农业用水和粮食生产的影响 [J]. 农业工程学报, 26(2): 1−6. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1002-6819.2010.02.001

    Wu Pute, Zhao Xining. 2010. Impact of climate change on agricultural water use and grain production in China [J]. Trans. CSAE (in Chinese), 26(2): 1−6. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1002-6819.2010.02.001
    [50] 吴浩, 侯威, 钱忠华, 等. 2012. 基于气候变化综合指数的中国近50年来气候变化敏感性研究 [J]. 物理学报, 61(14): 149205. doi: 10.7498/aps.61.149205

    Wu Hao, Hou Wei, Qian Zhonghua, et al. 2012. The research on the sensitivity of climate change in China in recent 50 years based on composite index [J]. Acta Phys. Sinica (in Chinese), 61(14): 149205. doi: 10.7498/aps.61.149205
    [51] 吴绍洪, 潘韬, 刘燕华, 等. 2017. 中国综合气候变化风险区划 [J]. 地理学报, 72(1): 3−17. doi: 10.11821/dlxb201701001

    Wu Shaohong, Pan Tao, Liu Yanhua, et al. 2017. Comprehensive climate change risk regionalization of China [J]. Acta Geogr. Sinica (in Chinese), 72(1): 3−17. doi: 10.11821/dlxb201701001
    [52] 熊伟, 杨婕, 林而达, 等. 2008. 未来不同气候变化情景下我国玉米产量的初步预测 [J]. 地球科学进展, 23(10): 1092−1101. doi: 10.3321/j.issn:1001-8166.2008.10.012

    Xiong Wei, Yang Jie, Lin Erda, et al. 2008. The projection of maize yield in China under climate change scenarios [J]. Adv. Earth Sci. (in Chinese), 23(10): 1092−1101. doi: 10.3321/j.issn:1001-8166.2008.10.012
    [53] 许吟隆, 居辉, 熊伟, 等. 2007. 气候变化对中国农业影响评估和适应性研究的回顾与展望 [J]. 中国农业科学, 40(S1): 41−48.

    Xu Yinlong, Ju Hui, Xiong Wei, et al. 2007. Review and prospect of research of climate change impacts on agriculture and adaptation in China [J]. Scientia Agricultura Sinica (in Chinese), 40(S1): 41−48.
    [54] Xu Y, Gao X J, Giorgi F. 2009. Regional variability of climate change hot-spots in East Asia [J]. Adv. Atmos. Sci., 26(4): 783−792. doi: 10.1007/s00376-009-9034-2
    [55] 许吟隆, 郑大玮, 刘晓英, 等. 2014. 中国农业适应气候变化关键问题研究[M]. 北京: 气象出版社, 216pp.

    Xu Yinlong, Zheng Dawei, Liu Xiaoying, et al. 2014. Studies on Critical Issues of Agricultural Adaptation to Climate Change in China (in Chinese) [M]. Beijing: China Meteorological Press, 216pp.
    [56] 张玉良. 1983. 我国农作物品种抗逆性鉴定现状与展望 [J]. 中国种业, (3): 8−13. doi: 10.19462/j.cnki.1671-895x.1983.03.002

    Zhang Yuliang. 1983. Status and prospects of crop resistance identification in China [J]. China Seed Industry (in Chinese), (3): 8−13. doi: 10.19462/j.cnki.1671-895x.1983.03.002
    [57] 张建平, 赵艳霞, 王春乙, 等. 2012. 不同气候情景下中国东北与华北作物产量变化趋势模拟 [J]. 干旱地区农业研究, 30(3): 262−266. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-7601.2012.03.044

    Zhang Jianping, Zhao Yanxia, Wang Chunyi, et al. 2012. Simulation of change trend of crop yields under different climate change scenarios in Northeast and North China [J]. Agricultural Research in the Arid Areas (in Chinese), 30(3):262–266, 30(3): 262−266. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-7601.2012.03.044
    [58] 张人禾, 闵庆烨, 苏京志. 2017. 厄尔尼诺对东亚大气环流和中国降水年际变异的影响: 西北太平洋异常反气旋的作用 [J]. 中国科学: 地球科学, 47(5): 544–553. Zhang Renhe, Min Qingye, Su Jingzhi. 2017. Impact of El Niño on atmospheric circulations over East Asia and rainfall in China: Role of the anomalous western North Pacific anticyclone [J]. Sci. China Earth Sci. , 60(6): 1124–1132. doi: 10.1007/s11430-016-9026-x
    [59] 张煦庭, 潘学标, 徐琳, 等. 2017. 中国温带地区不同界限温度下农业热量资源的时空演变 [J]. 资源科学, 39(11): 2104−2115. doi: 10.18402/resci.2017.11.09

    Zhang Xuting, Pan Xuebiao, Xu Lin, et al. 2017. Spatio-temporal variation of agricultural thermal resources at different critical temperatures in China's temperate zone [J]. Resour. Sci. (in Chinese), 39(11): 2104−2115. doi: 10.18402/resci.2017.11.09
    [60] 赵宗慈, 罗勇, 黄建斌. 2018. 从检验CMIP5气候模式看CMIP6地球系统模式的发展 [J]. 气候变化研究进展, 14(6): 643−648. doi: 10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2018.036

    Zhao Zongci, Luo Yong, Huang Jianbin. 2018. The detection of the CMIP5 climate model to see the development of CMIP6 earth system models [J]. Climate Change Res. (in Chinese), 14(6): 643−648. doi: 10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2018.036
    [61] 周广胜. 2015. 气候变化对中国农业生产影响研究展望 [J]. 气象与环境科学, 38(1): 80−94. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1673-7148.2015.01.012

    Zhou Guangsheng. 2015. Research prospects on the impact of climate change on agricultural production in China [J]. Meteor. Environ. Sci. (in Chinese), 38(1): 80−94. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1673-7148.2015.01.012
    [62] 周曙东, 朱红根. 2010. 气候变化对中国南方水稻产量的经济影响及其适应策略 [J]. 中国人口·资源与环境, 20(10): 152−157. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1002-2104.2010.10.026

    Zhou Shudong, Zhu Honggen. 2010. Economic analysis of climate change impact on the Rice Yield in southern China and its adaptive strategy [J]. China Population, Resources and Environment, 20(10): 152−157. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1002-2104.2010.10.026
    [63] 周景博, 刘亮. 2018. 未来气候变化对中国小麦产量影响的差异性研究——基于Meta回归分析的定量综述 [J]. 中国农业气象, 39(3): 141−151. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2018.03.001

    Zhou Jingbo, Liu Liang. 2018. Study on the differences of the impact of future climate change on wheat yield in China—Quantitative review based on meta regression analysis [J]. Chinese J. Agrometeor. (in Chinese), 39(3): 141−151. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2018.03.001
  • 加载中
图(1)
计量
  • 文章访问数:  313
  • HTML全文浏览量:  56
  • PDF下载量:  36
  • 被引次数: 0
出版历程
  • 收稿日期:  2021-08-27
  • 网络出版日期:  2021-12-03
  • 刊出日期:  2022-01-25

目录

    /

    返回文章
    返回