气候变化影响中国粮食安全研究的新思路

丑洁明; 董文杰; 徐洪; 涂钢

doi:10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2021.21148

气候变化影响中国粮食安全研究的新思路

doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2021.21148

丑洁明^{1, 2,},
董文杰^{2, 3},
徐洪¹,
涂钢⁴

1.
北京师范大学地理科学学部，北京100875
2.
南方海洋科学与工程广东省实验室（珠海），广东珠海519000
3.
中山大学大气科学学院，广东珠海519002
4.
吉林省气象科学研究所长白山气象与气候变化吉林省重点实验室，长春130062

基金项目: 国家自然科学基金面上项目 42075167，国家重点研发计划项 2018YFC1509003

详细信息

作者简介:
丑洁明，女，1965年出生，博士，教授，主要从事气候变化经济学研究。E-mail: choujm@bnu.edu.cn

中图分类号: P49
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- 文章访问数: 313
- HTML全文浏览量: 56
- PDF下载量: 36
- 被引次数: 0
出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2021-08-27
- 网络出版日期: 2021-12-03
- 刊出日期: 2022-01-25

New Ideas for Research on the Impact of Climate Change on China’s Food Security

Jieming CHOU^{1, 2
,},
Wenjie DONG^{2, 3},
Hong XU¹,
Gang TU⁴

1.
Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875
2.
Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Zhuhai), Zhuhai, Guangdong Province 519000
3.
School of Atmospheric Sciences, Sun Yat-Sen University, Zhuhai, Guangdong Province 519002
4.
Institute of Meteorological Science of Jilin Province, Jilin Province Key Laboratory for Changbai Mountain Meteorology and Climate Change, Changchun 130062

Funds: Funded by National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant 42075167), National Key Research and Development Program of China (Grant 2018YFC1509003)

摘要

摘要: 鉴于气候变化影响粮食安全问题的特殊性和复杂性，本文试图从自然科学和社会科学的交叉研究入手，提出一种新的研究的思路和方法，即：运用计量经济学模型对气候变化数据进行统计分析，使用计量经济学方法来评估气候这一外部驱动因素引发的社会经济系统变化与观测到的气候变化引发的社会经济系统变化之间的关系；在厘清“气候变化影响量”对粮食产量的影响的基础上，预估我国未来30年特别是经济社会发展两个关键节点2035年和2050年的粮食生产的气候变化风险，文章给出了一种新的研究视角，构建了研究内容和研究方法，力争实现定性研究与定量研究相结合，以科学预测为政策指导提供有力支撑。
- 气候变化 /
- 粮食安全 /
- 经济—气候模型 /
- 风险
Abstract: Considering the uniqueness and complexity of food security challenges caused by climate change, this article proposes a novel research idea and approach based on the junction of natural sciences and social sciences. Econometric models are used to perform statistical analysis on climate change data and econometric methods to assess the causal relationship between external climate drivers and observed climate change. The author clarifies the “impact of climate change” on food production and estimate China’s climate change risks on food production in the next 30 years, especially at the two key nodes of economic and social development in 2035 and 2050. The article provides a novel research perspective, as well as research content and methodology. The goal is to blend qualitative and quantitative research and provide strong support with scientific projections for policymaking.
- Climate change /
- Food security /
- Cobb Douglas-Climate (C-D-C) model /
- Risk

HTML全文

图 1 研究方法及技术路线图

Figure 1. Research methods and technical routes

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