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丑洁明, 董文杰, 徐洪, 等. 2022. 气候变化影响中国粮食安全研究的新思路[J]. 气候与环境研究, 27(1): 206−216. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2021.21148
引用本文: 丑洁明, 董文杰, 徐洪, 等. 2022. 气候变化影响中国粮食安全研究的新思路[J]. 气候与环境研究, 27(1): 206−216. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2021.21148
CHOU Jieming, DONG Wenjie, XU Hong, et al. 2022. New Ideas for Research on the Impact of Climate Change on China’s Food Security [J]. Climatic and Environmental Research (in Chinese), 27 (1): 206−216. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2021.21148
Citation: CHOU Jieming, DONG Wenjie, XU Hong, et al. 2022. New Ideas for Research on the Impact of Climate Change on China’s Food Security [J]. Climatic and Environmental Research (in Chinese), 27 (1): 206−216. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2021.21148

气候变化影响中国粮食安全研究的新思路

New Ideas for Research on the Impact of Climate Change on China’s Food Security

  • 摘要: 鉴于气候变化影响粮食安全问题的特殊性和复杂性,本文试图从自然科学和社会科学的交叉研究入手,提出一种新的研究的思路和方法,即:运用计量经济学模型对气候变化数据进行统计分析,使用计量经济学方法来评估气候这一外部驱动因素引发的社会经济系统变化与观测到的气候变化引发的社会经济系统变化之间的关系;在厘清“气候变化影响量”对粮食产量的影响的基础上,预估我国未来30年特别是经济社会发展两个关键节点2035年和2050年的粮食生产的气候变化风险,文章给出了一种新的研究视角,构建了研究内容和研究方法,力争实现定性研究与定量研究相结合,以科学预测为政策指导提供有力支撑。

     

    Abstract: Considering the uniqueness and complexity of food security challenges caused by climate change, this article proposes a novel research idea and approach based on the junction of natural sciences and social sciences. Econometric models are used to perform statistical analysis on climate change data and econometric methods to assess the causal relationship between external climate drivers and observed climate change. The author clarifies the “impact of climate change” on food production and estimate China’s climate change risks on food production in the next 30 years, especially at the two key nodes of economic and social development in 2035 and 2050. The article provides a novel research perspective, as well as research content and methodology. The goal is to blend qualitative and quantitative research and provide strong support with scientific projections for policymaking.

     

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