中国地区春霜冻的变化趋势和未来情景预估

钟洋洋; 钱诚

doi:10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2021.21162

中国地区春霜冻的变化趋势和未来情景预估

doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2021.21162

钟洋洋^{1, 2,},
钱诚^{1, 2, ,}

1.
中国科学院大气物理研究所中国科学院东亚区域气候—环境重点实验室，北京100029
2.
中国科学院大学，北京100049

基金项目: 国家重点研发计划项目2018YFC1507701，国家自然科学基金面上项目42175175

详细信息

作者简介:
钟洋洋，女，1999年出生，硕士研究生，主要从事极端天气气候事件研究。E-mail: dual_yang@163.com

通讯作者:
钱诚，E-mail: qianch@tea.ac.cn

中图分类号: P467
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- 文章访问数: 369
- HTML全文浏览量: 60
- PDF下载量: 50
- 被引次数: 0
出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2021-09-24
- 录用日期: 2022-01-14
- 网络出版日期: 2022-01-07
- 刊出日期: 2022-01-25

Historical Change and Future Projection of Spring Frost in China

Yangyang ZHONG^{1, 2
,},
Cheng QIAN^{1, 2
, ,}

1.
Key Laboratory of Regional Climate−Environment for Temperate East Asia, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029
2.
University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049

Funds: National Key Research and Development Program of China (Grant 2018YFC1507701), National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant 42175175)

摘要

摘要: 春季的霜冻事件是北半球温带地区与农业相关的最严重的极端事件之一。在气候变化背景下，探究整个中国地区春霜冻的变化趋势和未来可能变化有利于增进人们对春霜冻的认识，对我国未来农业结构调整有一定的参考价值。本文采用不易受离群值影响且考虑了自相关的非参数方法，在分析1960～2020年观测资料的基础上，利用24个耦合模式比较计划第6阶段（Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6, CMIP6）模式模拟的中等辐射强迫（SSP2-4.5）情景下的逐日最低温数据，在评估模式模拟性能后对中国地区未来（2021～2100年）的春霜冻日数、终霜日的变化趋势的空间分布特征以及与1991～2020年气候态相比的全国平均的距平序列进行了分析。结果表明：1）1960～2020年，全国约60.3%站点的春霜冻日数呈现显著减少趋势[−3.5～0 d (10 a)⁻¹]，40%站点的终霜日呈显著提前趋势[−4.3～0 d (10 a)⁻¹]；全国平均的春霜冻日数呈−1.3 d (10 a)⁻¹的显著减少趋势，终霜日则呈−1.7 d (10 a)⁻¹的显著提前趋势。2）2021～2100年，预估我国大部分地区的春霜冻日数均呈现显著减少趋势[−1.6～0 d (10 a)⁻¹]，终霜日则呈显著提前趋势[−1.4～0 d (10 a)⁻¹]；全国平均的春霜冻日数呈现−0.8 d (10 a)⁻¹的显著减少趋势，终霜日呈现−0.8 d (10 a)⁻¹的显著提前趋势。
- 春霜冻日数 /
- 终霜日 /
- CMIP6模式 /
- SSP2-4.5情景 /
- 趋势分析
Abstract: Spring frost is one of the most critical extreme events related with agriculture in northern temperate zone. In the context of climate change, research on the previous tendency and probable future change in the spring frost all over China can enhance people’s understanding, and it also has some reference value for adjustment of agricultural structure. Using a non-parametric method that is not sensitive to outliers and takes into account autocorrelation as the method of trend analysis, this study first analyzed the historical changes based on the meteorological observation data from 1960 to 2020. Then, based on the climate data simulated by 24 models in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 and the results of model evaluation, the future trend in spring frost from 2021 to 2100 was analyzed under the moderate radiative forcing scenario (SSP2-4.5), including the spatial distribution and national average anomalies compared with the 1991–2020 climatology. The main conclusions are summarized as follows: 1) From 1960 to 2020, the number of spring frost days of 60.3% stations across China showed a significantly decreasing trend [−3.5 – 0 d (10 a)⁻¹], and the last frost date of 40% stations showed a significant advancing trend [−4.3 – 0 d (10 a)⁻¹]. Moreover, national-averaged anomalies for the number of spring frost days during 1960–2020 in China showed a significantly decreasing trend [−1.3 d (10 a)⁻¹], while those for the last frost date showed a significantly advancing trend [−1.7 d (10 a)⁻¹]. 2) From 2021 to 2100, it is estimated that the number of spring frost days across China will decrease significantly [−1.6 – 0 d (10 a)⁻¹], and the last frost day will advance significantly [−1.4 – 0 d (10 a)⁻¹]. In addition, national-averaged anomalies for the number of spring frost days in China will show a significantly decreasing trend at a rate of −0.8 d (10 a)⁻¹, and those for the last frost date will show a significantly advancing trend at a rate of −0.8 d (10 a)⁻¹.
- Spring frost day /
- Last frost date /
- CMIP6 model /
- SSP2-4.5 scenario /
- Trend analysis

HTML全文

图 1 1991～2020年中国30年气候平均的（a）春霜冻日数、（b）终霜日。其中终霜日是以3月1日作为起始序号1来表示

Figure 1. Average annual (a) spring frost days and (b) last frost dates from 1991 to 2020 in China. The last frost dates are represented by the date order since 1 Mar

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图 2 1960～2020年中国（a）春霜冻日数、（b）终霜日的变化趋势（只显示统计显著的站点）

Figure 2. Linear trends in annual (a) spring frost days and (b) last frost dates from 1960 to 2020 in China (only statistically significant grids are displayed)

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图 3 1960～2020年全国平均的（a）春霜冻日数、（b）终霜日距平序列（实线）及其趋势（虚线）

Figure 3. Nationally averaged anomalies (solid lines) and their corresponding linear trends (dashed lines) for (a) spring frost days and (b) last frost dates from 1960 to 2020 in China

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图 4 24个CMIP6模式平均的模拟的（左列）和观测的（右列）1991～2020年中国30年气候平均的（a、b）春霜冻日数、（c、d）终霜日

Figure 4. Average annual (a, b) spring frost days and (c, d) last frost dates during 1991 to 2020 in China from the result of CMIP6 Mean (left panel) and observation (right panel)

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图 5 CMIP6模式模拟的1991～2020年中国30年气候平均的（a）春霜冻日数、（b）终霜日空间分布的泰勒图

Figure 5. Taylor charts of annual (a) spring frost days and (b) last frost dates averaged over 1991–2020 in China from CMIP6 simulation

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图 6 2021～2050年中国30年气候平均的（a）春霜冻日数、（b）终霜日

Figure 6. Average annual (a) spring frost days and (b) last frost dates from 2021 to 2050 in China

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图 7 2021～2100年中国（a）春霜冻日数、（b）终霜日的变化趋势（只显示统计显著的格点）

Figure 7. Linear trends in annual (a) spring frost days and (b) last frost dates from 2021 to 2100 in China (only statistically significant grids are displayed)

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 8 2021～2100年全国平均的（a）春霜冻日数、（b）终霜日距平序列（实线）及其趋势（虚线）

Figure 8. Nationally averaged anomalies (solid lines) and their corresponding linear trends (dashed lines) for (a) spring frost days and (b) last frost dates from 2021 to 2100 in China

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

表 1 24个CMIP6模式的基本信息

Table 1. Basic information of the 24 CMIP6 models

模式	所属机构（国家）	分辨率（经向格点数×纬向格点数）
ACCESS-CM2	CSIRO-ARC（澳大利亚）	192×144
ACCESS-ESM1-5	CSIRO（澳大利亚）	192×145
AWI-CM-1-1-MR	AWI（德国）	384×192
BCC-CSM2-MR	BCC（中国）	320×160
CanESM5	CCCMA（加拿大）	128×64
CNRM-CM6-1	CNRM-CERFACS（法国）	256×128
CNRM-ESM2-1	CNRM-CERFACS（法国）	256×128
EC-Earth3	EC-Earth（欧盟）	512×256
EC-Earth3-veg	EC-Earth（欧盟）	512×256
FGOALS-g3	CAS（中国）	180×80
GFDL-CM4	GFDL（美国）	288×180
GFDL-ESM4	GFDL（美国）	288×180
HadGEM3-GC31-LL	MOHC（英国）	192×144
INM-CM4-8	INM（俄罗斯）	180×120
INM-CM5-0	INM（俄罗斯）	180×120
IPSL-CM6A-LR	IPSL（法国）	144×143
MIROC6	MIROC（日本）	256×128
MIROC-ES2L	MIROC（日本）	256×128
MPI-ESM1-2-HR	MPI-M（德国）	384×192
MPI-ESM1-2-LR	MPI-M（德国）	192×96
MRI-ESM2-0	MRI（日本）	320×160
NESM3	NUIST（中国）	192×96
NorESM2-LM	NorESM（挪威）	144×96
UKESM1-0-LL	MOHC（英国）	192×144

下载: 导出CSV

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