寒潮天气过程对风/光伏发电资源要素数值预报技巧影响的检验分析

吴骥; 陈卫东; 字俣丞; 肖莹

doi:10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2021.21173

寒潮天气过程对风/光伏发电资源要素数值预报技巧影响的检验分析

doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2021.21173

吴骥^1,,
陈卫东¹,
字俣丞^{2, 3, ,},
肖莹⁴

1.
中国电力科学研究院有限公司，南京 210009
2.
中国科学技术大学，合肥 230026
3.
中国科学院大气物理研究所，北京 100029
4.
国网山西省电力公司电力科学研究院，太原 030001

基金项目: 国家电网有限公司总部科技项目5100-202055335A-0-0-00

详细信息

作者简介:
吴骥，男，1992年出生，硕士，工程师，研究方向为新能源资源及发电功率预测。E-mail: wuji@epri.sgcc.com.cn

通讯作者:
字俣丞，E-mail: ziyucheng520@lasg.iap.ac.cn

中图分类号: P429
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- 文章访问数: 89
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- PDF下载量: 16
- 被引次数: 0
出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2021-10-28
- 网络出版日期: 2021-11-23
- 刊出日期: 2022-12-12

Verification and Analysis of the Impact of Cold Wave Weather Process on the Numerical Prediction Skills of Wind/Photovoltaic Power Resource Elements

Ji WU^1
,,
Weidong CHEN¹,
Yucheng ZI^{2, 3
, ,},
Ying XIAO⁴

1.
China Electric Power Research Institute, Nanjing 210009
2.
University of Science and Technology of China, Heifei 230026
3.
Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of sciences, Beijing 100029
4.
Electric Power Research Institute of State Grid Shanxi Electric Power Company, Taiyuan 030001

Funds: Science and Technology Project of the Headquarters of State Grid Co., LTD. (Grant 5100-202055335A-0-0-00)

摘要

摘要: 基于ERA-5再分析资料和NCEP的GFS预报系统的120 h预报资料，对华东地区2020年12月至2021年3月期间9次寒潮过程中数值模式的近地面风速和向下净短波辐射通量预报技巧进行了检验，检验结果表明：1）GFS预报系统在提前1～4 d均能准确预报出寒潮过程（降温幅度和最低温度），平均预报命中率均在80%以上。2）在寒潮过程中，近地面风速会明显增强，虽然0～2级风速预报评分明显降低，但对3～5级和6级以上的风速预报评分（Threat Score, TS）反而较一般天气过程高；而向下净短波辐射通量预报相对误差要比一般天气过程偏大，尤其在寒潮爆发日最大。3）在寒潮过程中预报技巧具有明显日变化特征，0～2级风速预报技巧下午最低，尤其在寒潮最强日最明显；3～5级风速预报技巧在18:00（协调世界时）左右最低，在寒潮最强日夜间都很低。而向下净短波辐射通量预报下午以后预报误差显著增大，尤其在寒潮爆发日误差最大。4）在寒潮过程中，预报技巧随着预报时效的延长而降低，其中24 h预报TS评分较高，误差较小。72 h评分较低，误差较大。
- 寒潮 /
- 预报准确率 /
- 近地面风速 /
- 向下净短波辐射通量 /
- TS评分 /
- 相对误差
Abstract: Based on the reanalysis data of ERA-5 and the 120-h prediction data of Global Forecast System (GFS), which is the NCEP prediction system, this paper examines the prediction skills of near-surface wind speed and net downward short-wave radiation flux of the numerical model during nine cold waves in East China from December 2020 to March 2021. The following test results are obtained: 1) The GFS prediction system can accurately predict the cold wave process (cooling range and minimum temperature) 1–4 days in advance, with an average prediction accuracy > 80%. 2) The near-surface wind speed increases significantly during the cold wave. Even though the Threat Score (TS) of the wind speed of grades 0–2 is significantly low, the TS score of the wind speed of grades 3–5 and >6 is higher than the general weather process. The relative error in the prediction of the net downward short-wave radiation flux is larger than the general weather processes, particularly on the day of the cold wave outbreak. 3) The prediction skills exhibit significant diurnal variation, during the cold wave. The prediction skill of the wind speed of grades 0–2 is the lowest in the afternoon, particularly on the strongest day of the cold wave. The TS score of the wind speed of grades 3–5 is generally the lowest at around 1800 LST and is extremely low at night on the strongest day of the cold wave. After the afternoon, particularly on the day of the cold wave outbreak, the error in the prediction of the net downward short-wave radiation flux increases significantly. 4) The prediction skills decrease and the prediction time increases during the cold wave. The 24-h prediction has the highest TS score and the minimum error, while the 72-h prediction has the lowest TS score and the maximum error.
- Cold wave /
- Prediction accuracy /
- Near surface wind speed /
- Net downward short wave radiation flux /
- TS score /
- Relative error

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图 1 华东地区区域范围

Figure 1. Regional scope of East China

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 2 2020～2021年寒潮过程（a–c）爆发日和（d–f）最强日、（g–h）一般过程0～2级（第一行）、3～5级（第二行）以及6级以上（第三行）3个风速段的风速TS评分（24 h：24 h预报，48 h：48 h预报，72 h：72 h预报，下同）

Figure 2. TSs of (a–c) outbreak day and (d–f) the strongest day in cold wave process and (g–h) general weather process during 2020−2021 at three wind-speed segments of grades 0–2 (the first row), 3–5 (the second row), and >6 (the third row) (24 h: 24-h prediction, 48 h: 48-h prediction, and 72 h: 72-h prediction, the same below)

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 3 2020～2021年（a–c）“1230”和（d–f）“0301”两次寒潮过程最强日0～2级（第一行）、3～5级（第二行）以及6级以上（第三行）3个风速段的风速TS评分

Figure 3. TSs of the two strongest days in cold wave process of (a–c) “1230” and (d–f) “0301” during 2020−2021 at three wind-speed segments of grades 0–2 (the first row), 3–5 (the second row) and > 6 (the third row)

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 4 2020～2021年寒潮过程的爆发日（黑）和最强日（深灰）、一般天气状况下（浅灰）平均向下净短波辐射通量相对误差

Figure 4. Relative error in the downward net short-wave radiation flux between outbreak day (black) and strongest day (dark grey) in cold wave process and general weather process (grey) during 2020−2021

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 5 2020～2021年两次寒潮最强日（黑线为“1230”，灰线为“0301”）向下净短波辐射通量相对误差（“1230”寒潮过程3个时效的预报完全重叠）

Figure 5. Relative error in the downward net short-wave radiation flux of the two strongest days of cold wave process during 2020−2021 (black line: “1230”, grey line: “0301” ) (the effective predictions of the “1230” cold wave process completely overlap three times)

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

表 1 风速预报两分类列联表

Table 1. Contingency table of dimorphic distribution for wind speed forecast

预测事件	观测事件
预测事件	发生	不发生
发生	N_A	N_B
不发生	N_C

下载: 导出CSV

表 2 2020～2021年9次冷空气过程达到区域寒潮标准的格点数以及模式预报准确率

Table 2. Grid points of nine cold-air processes reaching regional cold wave standards and model prediction accuracy during 2020−2021

日期	达到寒潮标准的格点数	预报准确率
日期	达到寒潮标准的格点数	超前4天	超前3天	超前2天	超前1天
12月13～14日	761	91%	88%	84%	58%
12月29～30日	841	100%	100%	100%	82%
1月7～8日	838	87%	89%	87%	91%
1月15～16日	692	99%	99%	97%	85%
2月7～8日	519	33%	37%	89%	94%
2月15～17日	386	74%	87%	92%	90%
2月22～23日	270	100%	100%	100%	100%
3月1～2日	451	77%	47%	51%	59%
3月6～7日	323	68%	76%	89%	88%
平均		81%	80%	88%	83%

下载: 导出CSV

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