近30年来中国气温、降水和水分盈亏的趋势及其变化

宋文起; 王志恒

doi:10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2022.21042

近30年来中国气温、降水和水分盈亏的趋势及其变化

doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2022.21042

宋文起^{1, 2,},
王志恒^{1, 2, ,}

1.
北京大学城市与环境学院生态研究中心，北京 100871
2.
北京大学地表过程分析与模拟教育部重点实验室，北京 100871

基金项目: 国家自然科学基金项目31988102、32125026，国家重点研发计划项目2022YFF0802300，中国科学院战略重点研究项目 XDB31000000

详细信息

作者简介:
宋文起，男，1996年出生，博士研究生，主要研究方向为全球变化。E-mail: 1600013223@pku.edu.cn

通讯作者:
王志恒，E-mail: zhiheng.wang@pku.edu.cn

中图分类号: P467
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出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2021-02-24
- 网络出版日期: 2022-04-24
- 刊出日期: 2023-01-25

Trends and Changes in Temperature, Precipitation, and Water Surplus and Deficit in China over the Last 30 Years

Wenqi SONG^{1, 2
,},
Zhiheng WANG^{1, 2
, ,}

1.
Institute of Ecology, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing 100871
2.
Key Laboratory for Earth Surface Processes, Peking University, Beijing 100871

Funds: National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grants 31988102 and 32125026), National Key Research Development Program of China (Grant 2022YFF0802300), Strategic Priority Research Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences (Grant XDB31000000)

摘要

摘要: 解析气候变化的主要特征可为认识气候变化如何影响生态系统过程提供基础数据，也可为气候变化应对提供科技支撑。近几十年来，中国区域内的气温快速升高，对生态系统造成了极大的影响。但关于温度和降水时间变化趋势是否存在转折以及区域上是否存在差异的研究还较少。并且过去几十年的气温和降水变化已引起了水分盈亏的显著改变，而关于我国水分盈亏变化趋势的研究仍显不足，充分了解不同地区水分盈亏的变化，可以帮助我们更好地理解该地区的干湿变化，提升水资源的管理和利用效率。本文基于中国2479个气象站点的观测数据，利用分段回归方法分析了1981～2015年间年平均温度、年降水量以及水分盈亏的时间变化趋势及其转折点的时空格局，主要结果如下：（1）1981～2015年全国平均温度显著增加，且具有明显的阶段变化特征和地区差异：1991～1995年云南、东北北部温度变化发生转折，云南1991年之后开始显著增温。东北南部、华北大部分地区温度发生转折的时间为1996～2000年，南部沿海地区温度发生转折的时间为2001～2005年，转折点之前温度显著增加，转折点之后温度增加停滞。（2）1981～2015年中国降水量的时间变化趋势在不同地区之间具有显著差异，西部干旱地区及山东半岛等地区，年降水量显著增加，而西南地区降水量显著减少。在陕西、山西等地降水量时间变化趋势发生转折，降水量在转折点之前显著降低，转折点之后显著增加。全国大部分地区降水日数减少，降水强度增加，极端降水事件的频率增加。（3）1981～2015年中国大部分地区的水分盈亏量、标准化降水蒸散指数显著下降，中国整体上呈现干旱化的趋势。水分盈亏量的时间变化趋势在山西、陕西、云南等地发生转折，陕西、山西等地水分盈亏转折点之前减少，转折点之后增加；云南等地水分盈亏转折点之前增加，转折点之后减少。
- 温度 /
- 降水 /
- 水分盈亏
Abstract: Dissecting the main features of climate change offers basic data for understanding how climate change affects ecosystem processes and provides scientific and technological support for climate change response. Over the last few decades, the rapid increase in temperature in the Chinese region has had a significant impact on ecosystems. However, few studies have hitherto focused on whether there are transitions in temperature and precipitation temporal trends and whether there are regional differences. Furthermore, the temperature and precipitation changes in the past decades have caused significant changes in moisture gain/loss levels, while the trends of moisture gain/loss in China have received poor attention. A sufficient understanding of the changes in moisture gain/loss levels in different regions can help us better understand the dry and wet changes in the region and improve the efficiency of water resource management and usage. Analyzing the temporal and spatial distribution of the turning points of temperature and precipitation changes will help understand the change trend of water profit and loss and spatial differences. Based on the observational data of 2479 meteorological stations in China, this study uses the segmented regression method to analyze the temporal change trends of annual average temperature, annual precipitation, and water surplus and loss from 1981 to 2015, and the temporal and spatial patterns of turning points. The main results are the following. (1) The national average temperature increased significantly from 1981 to 2015, which demonstrated obvious phase-change characteristics and regional differences: In Yunnan and in northern and northeastern regions, the temperature changed between 1991 and 1995, while the temperature in Yunnan began to increase significantly after 1991. The temperature transition period in most parts of southern Northeast and North China occurred between 1996 and 2000, and the temperature transition period in the southern coastal areas occurred between 2001 and 2005. The temperature increased significantly before the turning point, while it stagnated after the turning point. (2) The temporal precipitation trend in China from 1981 to 2015 significantly differs between different regions. In the arid areas of the western regions and the Shandong Peninsula, the annual precipitation increased significantly, while the precipitation in the southwestern region decreased significantly. In Shaanxi, Shanxi, and other places, the temporal trend of precipitation has turned. The precipitation decreased significantly before the turning point and increased significantly after the turning point. In most parts of the country, the number of precipitation days has decreased, the precipitation intensity has increased, and the frequency of extreme precipitation events has increased. (3) From 1981 to 2015, the water surplus and loss and the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index in most areas of China dropped significantly, and China showed a trend of aridification. The temporal change trend of water surplus and loss occurred in Shanxi, Shaanxi, Yunnan, andYunnan. Shaanxi, Shanxi, and Yunnan decreased before the water surplus and loss turning point and increased after the turning point; Yunnan and other places increased before the water surplus and loss turning point and decreased after the turning point.
- Temperature /
- Precipitation /
- Water surplus and deficit

HTML全文

图 1 1999～2015年中国不同地区年平均温度（第一列）、年平均降水量（第二列）、年平均水分盈亏（第三列）时间变化趋势转折。图中灰线代表不进行分段回归的时间变化趋势、蓝线代表转折点之前的时间变化趋势、红线代表转折点之后的时间变化趋势，实线代表变化趋势显著，虚线代表变化趋势不显著

Figure 1. Turning graphs of annual mean temperature, annual mean precipitation, and annual water surplus and deficit time trends in different regions of China from 1999 to 2015. The gray line in the graph represents the time trend without segmented regression, the blue line represents the time trend before the turning point, and the red line represents the time trend after the turning point, with the realization representing a significant trend and the dashed line representing an insignificant trend

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图 2 1981～2015年中国年平均温度（a）变化趋势及（b）转折时间，以及（c）转折发生之前、（d）转折发生之后年平均温度的变化趋势。b、c、d中颜色点表示转折发生年份，灰色表示无明显转折

Figure 2. Spatial pattern of annual temperature (a) change trend and (b) the turning point time in China from 1981 to 2015, and the annual average temperature change trend (c) before and (d) after the turning point. The color dots in b, c, and d indicate the years of turning point, while gray indicates no significant turning

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图 3 1981～2015年中国不同季节均温变化趋势的空间分布：（a）春季；（b）夏季；（c）秋季；（d）冬季

Figure 3. Spatial pattern of the changing trend of average temperature in different seasons in China from 1981 to 2015: (a) Spring; (b) summer; (c) autumn; (d) winter

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图 4 1981～2015年中国年降水量（a）变化趋势及（b）转折时间，以及（c）转折发生之前、（d）转折发生之后年平均降水量的变化趋势。b、c、d中颜色表示转折发生年份，灰色表示无明显转折

Figure 4. Spatial change pattern of annual precipitation change trend and its turning point time in China from 1981 to 2015, and the annual precipitation change trend (c) before and (d) after the turning point. The color dots in b, c, and d indicate the years of turning point, while gray indicates no significant turning

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图 5 1981～2015年中国不同季节降水量变化趋势的空间分布：（a）春季；（b）夏季；（c）秋季；（d）冬季

Figure 5. Spatial pattern of the changing trend of precipitation in different seasons in China from 1981 to 2015: (a) Spring; (b) summer; (c) autumn; (d) winter

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图 6 1981～2015年中国（a）雨日数、（b）降水强度、（c）最大日降水量和（d）最大无降水日数时间变化趋势的空间分布

Figure 6. Spatial pattern of the temporal change trends of (a) rainy days, (b) precipitation intensity, (c) maximum daily precipitation, and (d) maximum continuous drought days in China from 1981 to 2015

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图 7 1981～2015年中国水分盈亏（a）变化趋势及（b）转折时间，以及（c）转折发生之前、（d）转折发生之后年平均水分盈亏的变化趋势。b、c、d中颜色表示转折发生年份，灰色表示无显著转折

Figure 7. Spatial pattern of water surplus and deficit (a) change trend and (b) its turning time in China from 1981 to 2015, and the water profit and loss change trend (c) before and (d) after the turning point. The color dots in b, c, and d indicate the years of turning point, while gray indicates no significant turning

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图 8 1981～2015年中国标准降水蒸散指数变化趋势的空间分布

Figure 8. The spatial pattern of the change trend of SPEI (Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index) in China from 1981 to 2015

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图 9 1981～2015年不同季节水分盈亏变化趋势的空间分布：（a）春季；（b）夏季；（c）秋季；（d）冬季

Figure 9. Spatial pattern of the change trend of water surplus and deficit in different seasons in China from 1981 to 2015: (a) Spring; (b) summer; (c) autumn; (d) winter

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表 1 本文所用气候指标名称与定义

Table 1. Names and definitions of climate indicators used in this article

指标	定义
年降水量	一年内降水量的总和
春季降水量	3～5月降水量的总和
夏季降水量	6～8月降水量的总和
秋季降水量	9～11月降水量的总和
冬季降水量	12月至次年2月的降水量总和
年平均温度	一年内温度的均值
春季平均温度	3～5月温度的均值
夏季平均温度	6～8月温度的均值
秋季平均温度	9～11月温度均值
冬季平均温度	12月至次年2月温度均值
年水分盈亏量	年内降水量与潜在蒸散量的差值
春季水分盈亏量	3～5月降水量与潜在蒸散量的差值
夏季水分盈亏量	6～8月降水量与潜在蒸散量的差值
秋季水分盈亏量	9～11月降水量与潜在蒸散量的差值
冬季水分盈亏量	12月至次年2月降水量与潜在蒸散量的差值
标准化降水蒸散指数	基于降水与潜在蒸散计算的一种干旱指数
雨日	一年内降水量大于0的天数
日降水强度	年总降水量除以雨日
最大日降水量	年内最大日降水量
最大无降水日数	日降水量等于0持续天数的最大值

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表 2 1981～2015年中国不同地区年平均温度、年平均降水量、年平均水分盈亏时间变化趋势转折点时间、显著性以及转折点前后时间变化趋势

Table 2. Turning point time, significance, and time trends before and after the turning point in different regions of China from 1999 to 2015

	年平均温度					年平均降水量						年平均水分盈亏
	转折点时间	转折点显著性	未分段回归的斜率	转折前斜率	转折后斜率		转折点时间	转折点显著性	未分段回归的斜率	转折前斜率	转折后斜率		转折点时间	转折点显著性	未分段回归的斜率	转折前斜率	转折后斜率
东北	1997年	＜0.05	0.022	0.070	−0.019		2001年	＞0.05	−0.45	−3.7	5.4		2001年	＞0.05	−1.3	−5.4	5.5
华北	1999年	＜0.05	0.036	0.069	−0.002		2001年	＞0.05	−0.11	−1.8	2.8		2001年	＞0.05	−1.4	−3.7	2.6
华东	2002年	＜0.05	0.038	0.059	−0.003		−	−	1.60	−			2009年	＞0.05	−0.4	−2.5	20.8
西北	2002年	＞0.05	0.044	0.060	0.010		1995年	＜0.05	0.10	−4.5	2.8		1997年	＜0.05	−1.4	−5.7	2.2
西南	−	−	0.033	−	−		1999年	＞0.05	−1.60	−0.1	−3.5		1999年	＞0.05	−3.0	−1.3	−5.1
中南	2002年	＜0.05	0.030	0.046	−0.002		1985年	＞0.05	−0.23	−29.5	1.1		1985年	＞0.05	−1.9	−25.6	−0.5
全国	2002年	＜0.05	0.035	0.051	0.001		−	−	−0.07	−	−		2009年	＞0.05	−1.6	−2.6	10.0

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