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近30年来中国气温、降水和水分盈亏的趋势及其变化

宋文起 王志恒

宋文起, 王志恒. 2023. 近30年来中国气温、降水和水分盈亏的趋势及其变化[J]. 气候与环境研究, 28(1): 1−16 doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2022.21042
引用本文: 宋文起, 王志恒. 2023. 近30年来中国气温、降水和水分盈亏的趋势及其变化[J]. 气候与环境研究, 28(1): 1−16 doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2022.21042
SONG Wenqi, WANG Zhiheng. 2023. Trends and Changes in Temperature, Precipitation, and Water Surplus and Deficit in China over the Last 30 Years [J]. Climatic and Environmental Research (in Chinese), 28 (1): 1−16 doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2022.21042
Citation: SONG Wenqi, WANG Zhiheng. 2023. Trends and Changes in Temperature, Precipitation, and Water Surplus and Deficit in China over the Last 30 Years [J]. Climatic and Environmental Research (in Chinese), 28 (1): 1−16 doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2022.21042

近30年来中国气温、降水和水分盈亏的趋势及其变化

doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2022.21042
基金项目: 国家自然科学基金项目31988102、32125026,国家重点研发计划项目2022YFF0802300,中国科学院战略重点研究项目 XDB31000000
详细信息
    作者简介:

    宋文起,男,1996年出生,博士研究生,主要研究方向为全球变化。E-mail: 1600013223@pku.edu.cn

    通讯作者:

    王志恒,E-mail: zhiheng.wang@pku.edu.cn

  • 中图分类号: P467

Trends and Changes in Temperature, Precipitation, and Water Surplus and Deficit in China over the Last 30 Years

Funds: National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grants 31988102 and 32125026), National Key Research Development Program of China (Grant 2022YFF0802300), Strategic Priority Research Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences (Grant XDB31000000)
  • 摘要: 解析气候变化的主要特征可为认识气候变化如何影响生态系统过程提供基础数据,也可为气候变化应对提供科技支撑。近几十年来,中国区域内的气温快速升高,对生态系统造成了极大的影响。但关于温度和降水时间变化趋势是否存在转折以及区域上是否存在差异的研究还较少。并且过去几十年的气温和降水变化已引起了水分盈亏的显著改变,而关于我国水分盈亏变化趋势的研究仍显不足,充分了解不同地区水分盈亏的变化,可以帮助我们更好地理解该地区的干湿变化,提升水资源的管理和利用效率。本文基于中国2479个气象站点的观测数据,利用分段回归方法分析了1981~2015年间年平均温度、年降水量以及水分盈亏的时间变化趋势及其转折点的时空格局,主要结果如下:(1)1981~2015年全国平均温度显著增加,且具有明显的阶段变化特征和地区差异:1991~1995年云南、东北北部温度变化发生转折,云南1991年之后开始显著增温。东北南部、华北大部分地区温度发生转折的时间为1996~2000年,南部沿海地区温度发生转折的时间为2001~2005年,转折点之前温度显著增加,转折点之后温度增加停滞。(2)1981~2015年中国降水量的时间变化趋势在不同地区之间具有显著差异,西部干旱地区及山东半岛等地区,年降水量显著增加,而西南地区降水量显著减少。在陕西、山西等地降水量时间变化趋势发生转折,降水量在转折点之前显著降低,转折点之后显著增加。全国大部分地区降水日数减少,降水强度增加,极端降水事件的频率增加。(3)1981~2015年中国大部分地区的水分盈亏量、标准化降水蒸散指数显著下降,中国整体上呈现干旱化的趋势。水分盈亏量的时间变化趋势在山西、陕西、云南等地发生转折,陕西、山西等地水分盈亏转折点之前减少,转折点之后增加;云南等地水分盈亏转折点之前增加,转折点之后减少。
  • 图  1  1999~2015年中国不同地区年平均温度(第一列)、年平均降水量(第二列)、年平均水分盈亏(第三列)时间变化趋势转折。图中灰线代表不进行分段回归的时间变化趋势、蓝线代表转折点之前的时间变化趋势、红线代表转折点之后的时间变化趋势,实线代表变化趋势显著,虚线代表变化趋势不显著

    Figure  1.  Turning graphs of annual mean temperature, annual mean precipitation, and annual water surplus and deficit time trends in different regions of China from 1999 to 2015. The gray line in the graph represents the time trend without segmented regression, the blue line represents the time trend before the turning point, and the red line represents the time trend after the turning point, with the realization representing a significant trend and the dashed line representing an insignificant trend

    图  2  1981~2015年中国年平均温度(a)变化趋势及(b)转折时间,以及(c)转折发生之前、(d)转折发生之后年平均温度的变化趋势。b、c、d中颜色点表示转折发生年份,灰色表示无明显转折

    Figure  2.  Spatial pattern of annual temperature (a) change trend and (b) the turning point time in China from 1981 to 2015, and the annual average temperature change trend (c) before and (d) after the turning point. The color dots in b, c, and d indicate the years of turning point, while gray indicates no significant turning

    图  3  1981~2015年中国不同季节均温变化趋势的空间分布:(a)春季;(b)夏季;(c)秋季;(d)冬季

    Figure  3.  Spatial pattern of the changing trend of average temperature in different seasons in China from 1981 to 2015: (a) Spring; (b) summer; (c) autumn; (d) winter

    图  4  1981~2015年中国年降水量(a)变化趋势及(b)转折时间 ,以及(c)转折发生之前、(d)转折发生之后年平均降水量的变化趋势。b、c、d中颜色表示转折发生年份,灰色表示无明显转折

    Figure  4.  Spatial change pattern of annual precipitation change trend and its turning point time in China from 1981 to 2015, and the annual precipitation change trend (c) before and (d) after the turning point. The color dots in b, c, and d indicate the years of turning point, while gray indicates no significant turning

    图  5  1981~2015年中国不同季节降水量变化趋势的空间分布:(a)春季;(b)夏季;(c)秋季;(d)冬季

    Figure  5.  Spatial pattern of the changing trend of precipitation in different seasons in China from 1981 to 2015: (a) Spring; (b) summer; (c) autumn; (d) winter

    图  6  1981~2015年中国(a)雨日数、(b)降水强度、(c)最大日降水量和(d)最大无降水日数时间变化趋势的空间分布

    Figure  6.  Spatial pattern of the temporal change trends of (a) rainy days, (b) precipitation intensity, (c) maximum daily precipitation, and (d) maximum continuous drought days in China from 1981 to 2015

    图  7  1981~2015年中国水分盈亏(a)变化趋势及(b)转折时间,以及(c)转折发生之前、(d)转折发生之后年平均水分盈亏的变化趋势。b、c、d中颜色表示转折发生年份,灰色表示无显著转折

    Figure  7.  Spatial pattern of water surplus and deficit (a) change trend and (b) its turning time in China from 1981 to 2015, and the water profit and loss change trend (c) before and (d) after the turning point. The color dots in b, c, and d indicate the years of turning point, while gray indicates no significant turning

    图  8  1981~2015年中国标准降水蒸散指数变化趋势的空间分布

    Figure  8.  The spatial pattern of the change trend of SPEI (Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index) in China from 1981 to 2015

    图  9  1981~2015年不同季节水分盈亏变化趋势的空间分布:(a)春季;(b)夏季;(c)秋季;(d)冬季

    Figure  9.  Spatial pattern of the change trend of water surplus and deficit in different seasons in China from 1981 to 2015: (a) Spring; (b) summer; (c) autumn; (d) winter

    表  1  本文所用气候指标名称与定义

    Table  1.   Names and definitions of climate indicators used in this article

    指标定义
    年降水量一年内降水量的总和
    春季降水量3~5月降水量的总和
    夏季降水量6~8月降水量的总和
    秋季降水量9~11月降水量的总和
    冬季降水量12月至次年2月的降水量总和
    年平均温度一年内温度的均值
    春季平均温度3~5月温度的均值
    夏季平均温度6~8月温度的均值
    秋季平均温度9~11月温度均值
    冬季平均温度12月至次年2月温度均值
    年水分盈亏量年内降水量与潜在蒸散量的差值
    春季水分盈亏量3~5月降水量与潜在蒸散量的差值
    夏季水分盈亏量6~8月降水量与潜在蒸散量的差值
    秋季水分盈亏量9~11月降水量与潜在蒸散量的差值
    冬季水分盈亏量12月至次年2月降水量与潜在蒸散量的差值
    标准化降水蒸散指数基于降水与潜在蒸散计算的一种干旱指数
    雨日一年内降水量大于0的天数
    日降水强度年总降水量除以雨日
    最大日降水量年内最大日降水量
    最大无降水日数日降水量等于0持续天数的最大值
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  2  1981~2015年中国不同地区年平均温度、年平均降水量、年平均水分盈亏时间变化趋势转折点时间、显著性以及转折点前后时间变化趋势

    Table  2.   Turning point time, significance, and time trends before and after the turning point in different regions of China from 1999 to 2015

    年平均温度年平均降水量年平均水分盈亏
    转折点
    时间
    转折点
    显著性
    未分段回
    归的斜率
    转折前
    斜率
    转折后
    斜率
    转折点
    时间
    转折点
    显著性
    未分段回
    归的斜率
    转折前
    斜率
    转折后
    斜率
    转折点
    时间
    转折点
    显著性
    未分段回
    归的斜率
    转折前
    斜率
    转折后
    斜率
    东北1997年<0.050.0220.070−0.0192001年>0.05−0.45−3.75.42001年>0.05−1.3−5.45.5
    华北1999年<0.050.0360.069−0.0022001年>0.05−0.11−1.82.82001年>0.05−1.4−3.72.6
    华东2002年<0.050.0380.059−0.0031.602009年>0.05−0.4−2.520.8
    西北2002年>0.050.0440.0600.0101995年<0.050.10−4.52.81997年<0.05−1.4−5.72.2
    西南0.0331999年>0.05−1.60−0.1−3.51999年>0.05−3.0−1.3−5.1
    中南2002年<0.050.0300.046−0.0021985年>0.05−0.23−29.51.11985年>0.05−1.9−25.6−0.5
    全国2002年<0.050.0350.0510.001−0.072009年>0.05−1.6−2.610.0
    下载: 导出CSV
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  • 收稿日期:  2021-02-24
  • 网络出版日期:  2022-04-24
  • 刊出日期:  2023-01-25

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