近30年来中国气温、降水和水分盈亏的趋势及其变化

宋文起; 王志恒

doi:10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2022.21042

近30年来中国气温、降水和水分盈亏的趋势及其变化

doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2022.21042

宋文起^{1, 2,},
王志恒^{1, 2, ,}

1.
北京大学城市与环境学院生态研究中心，北京 100871
2.
北京大学地表过程分析与模拟教育部重点实验室，北京 100871

基金项目: 国家自然科学基金项目31988102、32125026，国家重点研发计划项目2022YFF0802300，中国科学院战略重点研究项目 XDB31000000

详细信息

作者简介:
宋文起，男，1996年出生，博士研究生，主要研究方向为全球变化。E-mail: 1600013223@pku.edu.cn

通讯作者:
王志恒，E-mail: zhiheng.wang@pku.edu.cn

中图分类号: P467
计量
- 文章访问数: 116
- HTML全文浏览量: 28
- PDF下载量: 29
- 被引次数: 0
出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2021-02-24
- 网络出版日期: 2022-04-24
- 刊出日期: 2023-01-25

Trends and Changes in Temperature, Precipitation, and Water Surplus and Deficit in China over the Last 30 Years

Wenqi SONG^{1, 2
,},
Zhiheng WANG^{1, 2
, ,}

1.
Institute of Ecology, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing 100871
2.
Key Laboratory for Earth Surface Processes, Peking University, Beijing 100871

Funds: National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grants 31988102 and 32125026), National Key Research Development Program of China (Grant 2022YFF0802300), Strategic Priority Research Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences (Grant XDB31000000)

摘要

摘要: 解析气候变化的主要特征可为认识气候变化如何影响生态系统过程提供基础数据，也可为气候变化应对提供科技支撑。近几十年来，中国区域内的气温快速升高，对生态系统造成了极大的影响。但关于温度和降水时间变化趋势是否存在转折以及区域上是否存在差异的研究还较少。并且过去几十年的气温和降水变化已引起了水分盈亏的显著改变，而关于我国水分盈亏变化趋势的研究仍显不足，充分了解不同地区水分盈亏的变化，可以帮助我们更好地理解该地区的干湿变化，提升水资源的管理和利用效率。本文基于中国2479个气象站点的观测数据，利用分段回归方法分析了1981～2015年间年平均温度、年降水量以及水分盈亏的时间变化趋势及其转折点的时空格局，主要结果如下：（1）1981～2015年全国平均温度显著增加，且具有明显的阶段变化特征和地区差异：1991～1995年云南、东北北部温度变化发生转折，云南1991年之后开始显著增温。东北南部、华北大部分地区温度发生转折的时间为1996～2000年，南部沿海地区温度发生转折的时间为2001～2005年，转折点之前温度显著增加，转折点之后温度增加停滞。（2）1981～2015年中国降水量的时间变化趋势在不同地区之间具有显著差异，西部干旱地区及山东半岛等地区，年降水量显著增加，而西南地区降水量显著减少。在陕西、山西等地降水量时间变化趋势发生转折，降水量在转折点之前显著降低，转折点之后显著增加。全国大部分地区降水日数减少，降水强度增加，极端降水事件的频率增加。（3）1981～2015年中国大部分地区的水分盈亏量、标准化降水蒸散指数显著下降，中国整体上呈现干旱化的趋势。水分盈亏量的时间变化趋势在山西、陕西、云南等地发生转折，陕西、山西等地水分盈亏转折点之前减少，转折点之后增加；云南等地水分盈亏转折点之前增加，转折点之后减少。
- 温度 /
- 降水 /
- 水分盈亏
Abstract: Dissecting the main features of climate change offers basic data for understanding how climate change affects ecosystem processes and provides scientific and technological support for climate change response. Over the last few decades, the rapid increase in temperature in the Chinese region has had a significant impact on ecosystems. However, few studies have hitherto focused on whether there are transitions in temperature and precipitation temporal trends and whether there are regional differences. Furthermore, the temperature and precipitation changes in the past decades have caused significant changes in moisture gain/loss levels, while the trends of moisture gain/loss in China have received poor attention. A sufficient understanding of the changes in moisture gain/loss levels in different regions can help us better understand the dry and wet changes in the region and improve the efficiency of water resource management and usage. Analyzing the temporal and spatial distribution of the turning points of temperature and precipitation changes will help understand the change trend of water profit and loss and spatial differences. Based on the observational data of 2479 meteorological stations in China, this study uses the segmented regression method to analyze the temporal change trends of annual average temperature, annual precipitation, and water surplus and loss from 1981 to 2015, and the temporal and spatial patterns of turning points. The main results are the following. (1) The national average temperature increased significantly from 1981 to 2015, which demonstrated obvious phase-change characteristics and regional differences: In Yunnan and in northern and northeastern regions, the temperature changed between 1991 and 1995, while the temperature in Yunnan began to increase significantly after 1991. The temperature transition period in most parts of southern Northeast and North China occurred between 1996 and 2000, and the temperature transition period in the southern coastal areas occurred between 2001 and 2005. The temperature increased significantly before the turning point, while it stagnated after the turning point. (2) The temporal precipitation trend in China from 1981 to 2015 significantly differs between different regions. In the arid areas of the western regions and the Shandong Peninsula, the annual precipitation increased significantly, while the precipitation in the southwestern region decreased significantly. In Shaanxi, Shanxi, and other places, the temporal trend of precipitation has turned. The precipitation decreased significantly before the turning point and increased significantly after the turning point. In most parts of the country, the number of precipitation days has decreased, the precipitation intensity has increased, and the frequency of extreme precipitation events has increased. (3) From 1981 to 2015, the water surplus and loss and the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index in most areas of China dropped significantly, and China showed a trend of aridification. The temporal change trend of water surplus and loss occurred in Shanxi, Shaanxi, Yunnan, andYunnan. Shaanxi, Shanxi, and Yunnan decreased before the water surplus and loss turning point and increased after the turning point; Yunnan and other places increased before the water surplus and loss turning point and decreased after the turning point.
- Temperature /
- Precipitation /
- Water surplus and deficit

HTML全文

图 1 1999～2015年中国不同地区年平均温度（第一列）、年平均降水量（第二列）、年平均水分盈亏（第三列）时间变化趋势转折。图中灰线代表不进行分段回归的时间变化趋势、蓝线代表转折点之前的时间变化趋势、红线代表转折点之后的时间变化趋势，实线代表变化趋势显著，虚线代表变化趋势不显著

Figure 1. Turning graphs of annual mean temperature, annual mean precipitation, and annual water surplus and deficit time trends in different regions of China from 1999 to 2015. The gray line in the graph represents the time trend without segmented regression, the blue line represents the time trend before the turning point, and the red line represents the time trend after the turning point, with the realization representing a significant trend and the dashed line representing an insignificant trend

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 2 1981～2015年中国年平均温度（a）变化趋势及（b）转折时间，以及（c）转折发生之前、（d）转折发生之后年平均温度的变化趋势。b、c、d中颜色点表示转折发生年份，灰色表示无明显转折

Figure 2. Spatial pattern of annual temperature (a) change trend and (b) the turning point time in China from 1981 to 2015, and the annual average temperature change trend (c) before and (d) after the turning point. The color dots in b, c, and d indicate the years of turning point, while gray indicates no significant turning

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 3 1981～2015年中国不同季节均温变化趋势的空间分布：（a）春季；（b）夏季；（c）秋季；（d）冬季

Figure 3. Spatial pattern of the changing trend of average temperature in different seasons in China from 1981 to 2015: (a) Spring; (b) summer; (c) autumn; (d) winter

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 4 1981～2015年中国年降水量（a）变化趋势及（b）转折时间，以及（c）转折发生之前、（d）转折发生之后年平均降水量的变化趋势。b、c、d中颜色表示转折发生年份，灰色表示无明显转折

Figure 4. Spatial change pattern of annual precipitation change trend and its turning point time in China from 1981 to 2015, and the annual precipitation change trend (c) before and (d) after the turning point. The color dots in b, c, and d indicate the years of turning point, while gray indicates no significant turning

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 5 1981～2015年中国不同季节降水量变化趋势的空间分布：（a）春季；（b）夏季；（c）秋季；（d）冬季

Figure 5. Spatial pattern of the changing trend of precipitation in different seasons in China from 1981 to 2015: (a) Spring; (b) summer; (c) autumn; (d) winter

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 6 1981～2015年中国（a）雨日数、（b）降水强度、（c）最大日降水量和（d）最大无降水日数时间变化趋势的空间分布

Figure 6. Spatial pattern of the temporal change trends of (a) rainy days, (b) precipitation intensity, (c) maximum daily precipitation, and (d) maximum continuous drought days in China from 1981 to 2015

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 7 1981～2015年中国水分盈亏（a）变化趋势及（b）转折时间，以及（c）转折发生之前、（d）转折发生之后年平均水分盈亏的变化趋势。b、c、d中颜色表示转折发生年份，灰色表示无显著转折

Figure 7. Spatial pattern of water surplus and deficit (a) change trend and (b) its turning time in China from 1981 to 2015, and the water profit and loss change trend (c) before and (d) after the turning point. The color dots in b, c, and d indicate the years of turning point, while gray indicates no significant turning

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 8 1981～2015年中国标准降水蒸散指数变化趋势的空间分布

Figure 8. The spatial pattern of the change trend of SPEI (Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index) in China from 1981 to 2015

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 9 1981～2015年不同季节水分盈亏变化趋势的空间分布：（a）春季；（b）夏季；（c）秋季；（d）冬季

Figure 9. Spatial pattern of the change trend of water surplus and deficit in different seasons in China from 1981 to 2015: (a) Spring; (b) summer; (c) autumn; (d) winter

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

表 1 本文所用气候指标名称与定义

Table 1. Names and definitions of climate indicators used in this article

指标	定义
年降水量	一年内降水量的总和
春季降水量	3～5月降水量的总和
夏季降水量	6～8月降水量的总和
秋季降水量	9～11月降水量的总和
冬季降水量	12月至次年2月的降水量总和
年平均温度	一年内温度的均值
春季平均温度	3～5月温度的均值
夏季平均温度	6～8月温度的均值
秋季平均温度	9～11月温度均值
冬季平均温度	12月至次年2月温度均值
年水分盈亏量	年内降水量与潜在蒸散量的差值
春季水分盈亏量	3～5月降水量与潜在蒸散量的差值
夏季水分盈亏量	6～8月降水量与潜在蒸散量的差值
秋季水分盈亏量	9～11月降水量与潜在蒸散量的差值
冬季水分盈亏量	12月至次年2月降水量与潜在蒸散量的差值
标准化降水蒸散指数	基于降水与潜在蒸散计算的一种干旱指数
雨日	一年内降水量大于0的天数
日降水强度	年总降水量除以雨日
最大日降水量	年内最大日降水量
最大无降水日数	日降水量等于0持续天数的最大值

下载: 导出CSV

表 2 1981～2015年中国不同地区年平均温度、年平均降水量、年平均水分盈亏时间变化趋势转折点时间、显著性以及转折点前后时间变化趋势

Table 2. Turning point time, significance, and time trends before and after the turning point in different regions of China from 1999 to 2015

	年平均温度					年平均降水量						年平均水分盈亏
	转折点时间	转折点显著性	未分段回归的斜率	转折前斜率	转折后斜率		转折点时间	转折点显著性	未分段回归的斜率	转折前斜率	转折后斜率		转折点时间	转折点显著性	未分段回归的斜率	转折前斜率	转折后斜率
东北	1997年	＜0.05	0.022	0.070	−0.019		2001年	＞0.05	−0.45	−3.7	5.4		2001年	＞0.05	−1.3	−5.4	5.5
华北	1999年	＜0.05	0.036	0.069	−0.002		2001年	＞0.05	−0.11	−1.8	2.8		2001年	＞0.05	−1.4	−3.7	2.6
华东	2002年	＜0.05	0.038	0.059	−0.003		−	−	1.60	−			2009年	＞0.05	−0.4	−2.5	20.8
西北	2002年	＞0.05	0.044	0.060	0.010		1995年	＜0.05	0.10	−4.5	2.8		1997年	＜0.05	−1.4	−5.7	2.2
西南	−	−	0.033	−	−		1999年	＞0.05	−1.60	−0.1	−3.5		1999年	＞0.05	−3.0	−1.3	−5.1
中南	2002年	＜0.05	0.030	0.046	−0.002		1985年	＞0.05	−0.23	−29.5	1.1		1985年	＞0.05	−1.9	−25.6	−0.5
全国	2002年	＜0.05	0.035	0.051	0.001		−	−	−0.07	−	−		2009年	＞0.05	−1.6	−2.6	10.0

下载: 导出CSV

参考文献(49)

[1]	Allen M R, Ingram W J. 2002. Constraints on future changes in climate and the hydrologic cycle [J]. Nature, 419(6903): 224−232. doi: 10.1038/nature01092
[2]	Anderegg W R L, Berry J A, Smith D D, et al. 2012. The roles of hydraulic and carbon stress in a widespread climate-induced forest die-off [J]. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 109(1): 233−237. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1107891109
[3]	Anderegg W R L, Martinez-Vilalta J, Cailleret M, et al. 2016. When a tree dies in the forest: Scaling climate-driven tree mortality to ecosystem water and carbon fluxes [J]. Ecosystems, 19(6): 1133−1147. doi: 10.1007/s10021-016-9982-1
[4]	蔡学彩, 李镇清, 陈佐忠, 等. 2005. 内蒙古草原大针茅群落地上生物量与降水量的关系 [J]. 生态学报, 25(7): 1657−1662. doi: 10.3321/j.issn:1000-0933.2005.07.018 Cai Xuecai, Li Zhenqing, Chen Zuozhong, et al. 2005. The relationship between aboveground biomass and precipitation on Stipa grandis steppe in Inner Mongolia [J]. Acta Ecologica Sinica (in Chinese), 25(7): 1657−1662. doi: 10.3321/j.issn:1000-0933.2005.07.018
[5]	Dai A G. 2011. Drought under global warming: A review [J]. WIREs Climate Change, 2(1): 45−65. doi: 10.1002/wcc.81
[6]	Ding M J, Li L H, Zhang Y L, et al. 2015. Start of vegetation growing season on the Tibetan Plateau inferred from multiple methods based on GIMMS and SPOT NDVI data [J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 25(2): 131−148. doi: 10.1007/s11442-015-1158-y
[7]	丁一汇, 戴晓苏. 1994. 中国近百年来的温度变化 [J]. 气象, 20(12): 19−26. doi: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.1994.12.008 Ding Yihui, Dai Xiaosu. 1994. Temperature variation in China during the last 100 years [J]. Meteorological Monthly (in Chinese), 20(12): 19−26. doi: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.1994.12.008
[8]	Donat M G, Lowry A L, Alexander L V, et al. 2016. More extreme precipitation in the world’s dry and wet regions [J]. Nature Climate Change, 6(5): 508−513. doi: 10.1038/nclimate2941
[9]	杜勤勤, 张明军, 王圣杰, 等. 2018. 中国气温变化对全球变暖停滞的响应 [J]. 地理学报, 73(9): 1748−1764. doi: 10.11821/dlxb201809011 Du Qinqin, Zhang Mingjun, Wang Shengjie, et al. 2018. Changes in air temperature of China in response to global warming hiatus [J]. Acta Geographica Sinica (in Chinese), 73(9): 1748−1764. doi: 10.11821/dlxb201809011
[10]	Fang J Y, Yoda K. 1990. Climate and vegetation in China III water balance and distribution of vegetation [J]. Ecological Research, 5(1): 9−23. doi: 10.1007/BF02348460
[11]	Fay P A, Carlisle J D, Knapp A K, et al. 2000. Altering rainfall timing and quantity in a Mesic grassland ecosystem: Design and performance of rainfall manipulation shelters [J]. Ecosystems, 3(3): 308−319. doi: 10.1007/s100210000028
[12]	Fay P A, Carlisle J D, Knapp A K, et al. 2003. Productivity responses to altered rainfall patterns in a C₄-dominated grassland [J]. Oecologia, 137(2): 245−251. doi: 10.1007/s00442-003-1331-3
[13]	Feng Y H, Zhu J X, Zhao X, et al. 2019. Changes in the trends of vegetation net primary productivity in China between 1982 and 2015 [J]. Environmental Research Letters, 14(12): 124009. doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/ab4cd8
[14]	Fyfe J C, Gillett N P, Zwiers F W. 2013. Overestimated global warming over the past 20 years [J]. Nature Climate Change, 3(9): 767−769. doi: 10.1038/nclimate1972
[15]	高歌, 许崇育. 2015. 1961–2010年中国十大流域水分盈亏量时空变化特征 [J]. 地理学报, 70(3): 380−391. doi: 10.11821/dlxb201503003 Gao Ge, Xu Chongyu. 2015. Characteristics of water surplus and deficit change in 10 major river basins in China during 1961–2010 [J]. Acta Geographica Sinica (in Chinese), 70(3): 380−391. doi: 10.11821/dlxb201503003
[16]	Ge Q S, Wang H J, Rutishauser T, et al. 2015. Phenological response to climate change in China: A meta-analysis [J]. Global Change Biology, 21(1): 265−274. doi: 10.1111/gcb.12648
[17]	He B, Chen A F, Jiang W G, et al. 2017. The response of vegetation growth to shifts in trend of temperature in China [J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 27(7): 801−816. doi: 10.1007/s11442-017-1407-3
[18]	Lauenroth W K, Sala O E. 1992. Long-term forage production of North American shortgrass steppe [J]. Ecological Applications, 2(4): 397−403. doi: 10.2307/1941874
[19]	Li D J, Miller J E D, Harrison S. 2019. Climate drives loss of phylogenetic diversity in a grassland community [J]. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 116(40): 19989−19994. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1912247116
[20]	Li Q X, Yang S, Xu W H, et al. 2015. China experiencing the recent warming hiatus [J]. Geophys. Res. Lett., 42(3): 889−898. doi: 10.1002/2014GL062773
[21]	刘珂, 姜大膀. 2015. 基于两种潜在蒸散发算法的SPEI对中国干湿变化的分析 [J]. 大气科学, 39(1): 23−36. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1402.13265 Liu Ke, Jiang Dapang. 2015. Analysis of dryness/wetness over China using standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index based on two evapotranspiration algorithms [J]. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences (in Chinese), 39(1): 23−36. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1402.13265
[22]	陆渝蓉, 高国栋. 1982. 中国干湿指标和干湿状况的分析 [J]. 农业气象, (1): 14−18. Lu Yurong, Gao Guodong. 1982. Analysis of China's dry and wet indicators and dry and wet conditions [J]. Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology (in Chinese), (1): 14−18.
[23]	任国玉, 郭军, 徐铭志, 等. 2005. 近50年中国地面气候变化基本特征 [J]. 气象学报, 63(6): 942−956. doi: 10.11676/qxxb2005.090 Ren Guoyu, Guo Jun, Xu Mingzhi, et al. 2005. Climate changes of China’s mainland over the past half century [J]. Acta Meteorologica Sinica (in Chinese), 63(6): 942−956. doi: 10.11676/qxxb2005.090
[24]	任国玉, 任玉玉, 战云健, 等. 2015. 中国大陆降水时空变异规律——Ⅱ. 现代变化趋势 [J]. 水科学进展, 26(4): 451−465. doi: 10.14042/j.cnki.32.1309.2015.04.001 Ren Guoyu, Ren Yuyu, Zhan Yunjian, et al. 2015. Spatial and temporal patterns of precipitation variability over mainland China: II: Recent trends [J]. Advances in Water Science (in Chinese), 26(4): 451−465. doi: 10.14042/j.cnki.32.1309.2015.04.001
[25]	任国玉, 吴虹, 陈正洪. 2000. 我国降水变化趋势的空间特征 [J]. 应用气象学报, 11(3): 322−330. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1001-7313.2000.03.009 Ren Guoyu, Wu Hong, Chen Zhenghong. 2000. Spatial patterns of change trend in rainfall of China [J]. Journal of Applied Meteorological Science (in Chinese), 11(3): 322−330. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1001-7313.2000.03.009
[26]	宋超, 余琦殷, 邢韶华, 等. 2018. 近30年河北大海陀自然保护区山地草甸植被(NDVI)变化及其对气候的响应 [J]. 生态学报, 38(7): 2547−2556. doi: 10.5846/stxb201704110633 Song Chao, Yu Qiyin, Xing Shaohua, et al. 2018. Climate effects on NDVI change of upland meadow in Dahaituo Nature Reserve over 30 years [J]. Acta Ecologica Sinica (in Chinese), 38(7): 2547−2556. doi: 10.5846/stxb201704110633
[27]	宋春桥, 游松财, 柯灵红, 等. 2012. 藏北高原典型植被样区物候变化及其对气候变化的响应 [J]. 生态学报, 32(4): 1045−1055. doi: 10.5846/stxb201101050014 Song Chunqiao, You Songcai, Ke Linghong, et al. 2012. Phenological variation of typical vegetation types in northern Tibet and its response to climate changes [J]. Acta Ecologica Sinica (in Chinese), 32(4): 1045−1055. doi: 10.5846/stxb201101050014
[28]	宋世凯. 2017. 全球变暖背景下1960–2014年中国降水时空变化特征 [D]. 新疆大学博士学位论文. Song Shikai. 2017. Spatial and temporal variation characteristics of precipitation over China during 1960–2014 under global warming [D]. Ph. D. dissertation (in Chinese), University of Xinjiang.
[29]	苏京志, 温敏, 丁一汇, 等. 2016. 全球变暖趋缓研究进展 [J]. 大气科学, 40(6): 1143−1153. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1512.15242 Su Jingzhi, Wen Min, Ding Yihui, et al. 2016. Hiatus of global warming: A review [J]. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences (in Chinese), 40(6): 1143−1153. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1512.15242
[30]	Sun X B, Ren G Y, Ren Y Y, et al. 2018. A remarkable climate warming hiatus over Northeast China since 1998 [J]. Theor. Appl. Climatol., 133(1): 579−594. doi: 10.1007/s00704-017-2205-7
[31]	Vicente-Serrano S M, Beguería S, López-Moreno J I. 2010. A multiscalar drought index sensitive to global warming: The standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index [J]. J. Climate, 23(7): 1696−1718. doi: 10.1175/2009JCLI2909.1
[32]	王大钧, 陈列, 丁裕国. 2006. 近40年来中国降水量、雨日变化趋势及与全球温度变化的关系 [J]. 热带气象学报, 22(3): 283−289. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-4965.2006.03.013 Wang Dajun, Chen Lie, Ding Yuguo. 2006. The change trend in rainfall, wet days of China in recent 40 years and the correlation between the change trend and the change of globe temperature [J]. Journal of Tropical Meteorology (in Chinese), 22(3): 283−289. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-4965.2006.03.013
[33]	王耸, 高西宁, 肖瑶, 等. 2017. 1961~2010年中国降水量变化分区及其区域特征 [J]. 干旱地区农业研究, 35(6): 284−293. doi: 10.7606/j.issn.1000-7601.2017.06.41 Wang Song, Gao Xining, Xiao Yao, et al. 2017. The division of precipitation change and its regional characteristics in China during 1961–2010 [J]. Agricultural Research in the Arid Areas (in Chinese), 35(6): 284−293. doi: 10.7606/j.issn.1000-7601.2017.06.41
[34]	Wang S P, Wang Z H, Piao S, et al. 2010. Regional differences in the timing of recent air warming during the past four decades in China [J]. Chinese Science Bulletin, 55(19): 1968−1973. doi: 10.1007/s11434-010-3236-y
[35]	王绍武, 罗勇, 唐国利, 等. 2010. 近10年全球变暖停滞了吗?[J]气候变化研究进展, 6(2): 95–99 Wang Shaowu, Luo Yong, Tang Guoli, et al. 2010. Does the global warming pause in the last decade: 1999–2008? [J]. Advances in Climate Change Research (in Chinese), 6(2): 95–99. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1673-1719.2010.02.004
[36]	徐东坡, 李金明, 周祖昊, 等. 2020. 1956~2018年中国降水特征的时空分布规律研究 [J]. 水利水电技术, 51(10): 20−27. doi: 10.13928/j.cnki.wrahe.2020.10.003 Xu Dongpo, Li Jinming, Zhou Zuhao, et al. 2020. Study on the spatial and temporal distribution of precipitation characteristics in China from 1956 to 2018 [J]. Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering (in Chinese), 51(10): 20−27. doi: 10.13928/j.cnki.wrahe.2020.10.003
[37]	徐新创, 张学珍, 戴尔阜, 等. 2014. 1961~2010年中国降水强度变化趋势及其对降水量影响分析 [J]. 地理研究, 33(7): 1335−1347. doi: 10.11821/dlyj201407013 Xu Xinchuang, Zhang Xuezhen, Dai Erfu, et al. 2014. Research of trend variability of precipitation intensity and their contribution to precipitation in China from 1961 to 2010 [J]. Geographical Research (in Chinese), 33(7): 1335−1347. doi: 10.11821/dlyj201407013
[38]	许艳, 唐国利, 张强. 2017. 基于均一化格点资料的全球变暖趋缓期中国气温变化特征分析 [J]. 气候变化研究进展, 13(6): 569−577. doi: 10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2017.060 Xu Yan, Tang Guoli, Zhang Qiang. 2017. Analysis of the variation of the air temperature over China during the global warming hiatus period [J]. Climate Change Research (in Chinese), 13(6): 569−577. doi: 10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2017.060
[39]	徐泽华, 韩美. 2018. 山东省干旱时空分布特征及其与 ENSO 的相关性 [J]. 中国生态农业学报, 26(8): 1236−1248. doi: 10.13930/j.cnki.cjea.171024 Xu Zehua, Han Mei. 2018. Spatio−Temporal distribution characteristics of drought in Shandong province and it relationship with ENSO [J]. Chinese Journal of Eco-Agriculture, 26(8): 1236−1248. doi: 10.13930/j.cnki.cjea.171024
[40]	Yu H Y, Luedeling E, Xu J C. 2010. Winter and spring warming result in delayed spring phenology on the Tibetan Plateau [J]. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 107(51): 22151−22156. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1012490107
[41]	姚晓军, 张晓, 孙美平, 李净, 等. 2013. 1960~2010年中国西北地区水分盈亏量时空特征 [J]. 地理研究, 32(4): 607−616. doi: 10.11821/yj2013040003 Yao Xiaojun, Zhang Xiao, Sun Meiping, et al. 2013. Spatial−temporal characteristics of water deficit in Northwest China from 1960 to 2010 [J]. Geographical Research, 32(4): 607−616. doi: 10.11821/yj2013040003
[42]	翟盘茂, 任福民, 张强. 1999. 中国降水极值变化趋势检测 [J]. 气象学报, 57(2): 208−216. doi: 10.11676/qxxb1999.019 Zhai Panmao, Ren Fumin, Zhang Qiang. 1999. Detection of trends in China's precipitation extremes [J]. Acta Meteorologica Sinica (in Chinese), 57(2): 208−216. doi: 10.11676/qxxb1999.019
[43]	翟盘茂, 邹旭恺. 2005. 1951~2003年中国气温和降水变化及其对干旱的影响 [J]. 气候变化研究进展, 1(1): 16−18. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1673-1719.2005.01.004 Zhai Panmao, Zou Xukai. 2005. Changes in temperature and precipitation and their impacts on drought in China during1951–2003 [J]. Advances in Climate Change Research (in Chinese), 1(1): 16−18. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1673-1719.2005.01.004
[44]	doi: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2015.07.012 Zhang Hao, Ma Xiaoqun, Wang XIaodong. 2015. Water budget characteristics of winter wheat and its impact on the yield in Anhui province [J]. Meteorological monthly, 41(7): 899-906
[45]	赵宗慈, 罗勇, 黄建斌. 2016. 围绕全球变暖"停滞"的争论 [J]. 气候变化研究进展, 12(6): 571−574. doi: 10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2016.055 Zhao Zongci, Luo Yong, Huang Jianbin. 2016. Debate on global warming "Hiatus" [J]. Climate Change Research (in Chinese), 12(6): 571−574. doi: 10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2016.055
[46]	周芬. 2005. Kendall检验在水文序列趋势分析中的比较研究 [J]. 人民珠江, (S1): 35−37. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1001-9235.2005.z1.016 Zhou Fen. 2005. Comparison of Kendall inspection in trend analysis of hydro-sequence [J]. Pearl River (in Chinese), (S1): 35−37. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1001-9235.2005.z1.016
[47]	周玉科, 高琪. 2017. 1960~2012年青藏高原极端气候指数数据集 [J]. 中国科学数据, 2(2): 70−78. doi: 10.11922/csdata.0.2017.0143 Zhou Yuke, Gao Qi. 2017. A dataset of climate extreme indices over the Tibetan Plateau (1960–2012) [J]. China Scientific Data (in Chinese), 2(2): 70−78. doi: 10.11922/csdata.0.2017.0143
[48]	周园园, 师长兴, 范小黎, 等. 2011. 国内水文序列变异点分析方法及在各流域应用研究进展 [J]. 地理科学进展, 30(11): 1361−1369. doi: 10.11820/dlkxjz.2011.11.005 Zhou Yuanyuan, Shi Changxing, Fan Xiaoli, et al. 2011. Advances in the research methods of abrupt changes of hydrologic sequences and their applications in drainage basins in China [J]. Progress in Geography (in Chinese), 30(11): 1361−1369. doi: 10.11820/dlkxjz.2011.11.005
[49]	朱建军, 张彬, 严月, 等. 2016. 降水量变化对内蒙古温带典型草原生态系统碳交换的影响 [J]. 西南民族大学学报(自然科学版), 42(5): 516−524. doi: 10.11920/xnmdzk.2016.05.009 Zhu Jianjun, Zhang Bin, Yan Yue, et al. 2016. Effects of changing precipitation regime on carbon exchange in a typical steppe ecosystem in Inner Mongolia [J]. Journal of Southwest University for Nationalities (Natural Science Edition) (in Chinese), 42(5): 516−524. doi: 10.11920/xnmdzk.2016.05.009