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李超, 李媛, 陈潜, 等. 2023. 冬季华南降水年际变化的环流特征及对前期海面温度异常响应[J]. 气候与环境研究, 28(2): 131−142. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2022.21155
引用本文: 李超, 李媛, 陈潜, 等. 2023. 冬季华南降水年际变化的环流特征及对前期海面温度异常响应[J]. 气候与环境研究, 28(2): 131−142. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2022.21155
LI Chao, LI Yuan, CHEN Qian, et al. 2023. Circulation Characteristics of Winter Rainfall Interannual Variations over South China and Their Response to Preceding Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies [J]. Climatic and Environmental Research (in Chinese), 28 (2): 131−142. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2022.21155
Citation: LI Chao, LI Yuan, CHEN Qian, et al. 2023. Circulation Characteristics of Winter Rainfall Interannual Variations over South China and Their Response to Preceding Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies [J]. Climatic and Environmental Research (in Chinese), 28 (2): 131−142. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2022.21155

冬季华南降水年际变化的环流特征及对前期海面温度异常响应

Circulation Characteristics of Winter Rainfall Interannual Variations over South China and Their Response to Preceding Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies

  • 摘要: 利用我国160站降水观测资料、NCEP/NCAR再分析资料以及英国哈德莱中心的海表面温度资料,分析了华南冬季(12月至次年2月)降水年际变化的大气环流特征以及对前期海面温度(Sea Surface Temperature, SST)异常的响应。结果表明,东亚高空急流异常偏南(偏北),东亚大槽减弱(增强),天气瞬变扰动和南支槽加强(减弱),来自孟加拉湾和南海的西南风在华南形成异常辐合(辐散),从而有利于该地区降水异常偏多(偏少)。ENSO型SST异常不能完全解释华南降水异常年南支槽和低层环流特征,进一步研究表明,导致华南降水异常的南支槽和低层风场变化与热带印度洋和赤道西太平洋SST异常关系更为密切。由前期热带印度洋和赤道西太平洋构建的SST指数和华南冬季降水相关达到0.44,两者相关系数在SST指数超前1个月时达到最大,对华南冬季降水具有一定潜在预报意义。

     

    Abstract: The characteristics of the interannual variability of winter (December–February) precipitation over South China and their association with atmospheric and preceding ocean conditions are analyzed using the observed precipitation data from 160 surface meteorological stations in China, the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis dataset, and the sea surface temperature (SST) dataset from the Met Office Hadley Center. The precipitation tends to be more (less) than the climatology under a southward (northward) shift of the East Asian jet stream, the weakened (strengthened) East Asian trough, and the enhanced (attenuated) transient eddy. The southwesterly winds from the Bay of Bengal and the South China Sea in the front of the southern branch trough favor more precipitation over South China. Further analysis suggests that the preceding SST anomalies (SSTAs) over the tropical Indian Ocean and western tropical Pacific in November have a closer relationship with the southern branch trough and low-level southwesterly winds associated with the variation in precipitation over South China, which could not be well explained by the ENSO-like SSTAs. The correlation coefficient between precipitation over South China and the derived index from the preceding SSTA is 0.44 and reaches a maximum when the SSTA index leads precipitation anomalies by approximately one month, which may act as a potential precursor for wintertime precipitation predictions.

     

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