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刘清滢, 王艳君, 赵庆庆, 等. 2023. 长江中下游地区温湿复合热浪及人口暴露度研究[J]. 气候与环境研究, 28(6): 573−582. DOI: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2023.22072
引用本文: 刘清滢, 王艳君, 赵庆庆, 等. 2023. 长江中下游地区温湿复合热浪及人口暴露度研究[J]. 气候与环境研究, 28(6): 573−582. DOI: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2023.22072
LIU Qingying, WANG Yanjun, ZHAO Qingqing, et al. 2023. Population Exposure to the Compound Temperature–Humidity Heatwaves in the Middle and Lower Reaches of the Yangtze River [J]. Climatic and Environmental Research (in Chinese), 28 (6): 573−582. DOI: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2023.22072
Citation: LIU Qingying, WANG Yanjun, ZHAO Qingqing, et al. 2023. Population Exposure to the Compound Temperature–Humidity Heatwaves in the Middle and Lower Reaches of the Yangtze River [J]. Climatic and Environmental Research (in Chinese), 28 (6): 573−582. DOI: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2023.22072

长江中下游地区温湿复合热浪及人口暴露度研究

Population Exposure to the Compound Temperature–Humidity Heatwaves in the Middle and Lower Reaches of the Yangtze River

  • 摘要: 本文选择温湿复合热浪高发频发的长江中下游地区为研究区,在7个共享社会经济路径情景下(SSP1-1.9、SSP1-2.6、SSP4-3.4、SSP2-4.5、SSP4-6.0、SSP3-7.0、SSP5-8.5),采用耦合模式国际比较计划第六阶段5个气候模式模拟和预估数据,结合共享社会经济路径(SSP1-5)下人口特征,对21世纪近期(2021~2040年)、中期(2041~2060年)、远期(2081~2100年)危害性/致死性温湿复合热浪及人口暴露度开展研究。发现:(1)危害性/致死性温湿复合热浪在基准期(1995~2014年)发生频次约为6 d/3 d,最长持续时间约为10 d/4 d,最多的频次和最长持续时间出现在21世纪远期,频次约为12~39 d /7~24 d,最长持续时间可能长达30 d /14 d;(2)基准期危害性/致死性温湿复合热浪影响范围和暴露人口数约为74.8×104 km2/22.3×104 km2和1.7×108/0.2×108,21世纪影响范围和暴露人口最大值出现在远期,约占研究区的83%~100%/32%~98%,暴露人口约为基准期的1.2~2.5倍/2.5~20.5倍,致死性温湿复合热浪的暴露人口增加更显著,约为0.4×108~3.7×108;(3)21世纪,致死性温湿复合热浪主要影响地区为上海市、浙江省北部、江苏省南部、安徽省南部、湖南省东部和江西省东部,亟待加强致死性温湿复合热浪的预报预警和风险防范工作。

     

    Abstract: Hazardous/lethal compound temperature–humidity heatwaves with a wet bulb temperature (i.e., ≥33°C/35°C) can severely affect human health. The middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River always experience high-frequency compound temperature–humidity heatwaves. This study investigates the population exposed to these heatwaves in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River for the near-term (2021–2040), medium-term (2041–2060), and long-term (2081–2100) periods using the five-climate model outputs under seven SSPs (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways)—based scenarios (i.e., SSP1-1.9, SSP1-2.6, SSP4-3.4, SSP2-4.5, SSP4-6.0, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5). These scenarios are obtained from the CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6) in combination with the demographic characteristics under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (i.e., SSP1-5). The results show that during the baseline period of 1995–2014, hazardous/lethal compound temperature–humidity heatwaves occurred at frequencies of approximately 6 d and 3 d in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, where the longest duration was approximately 10 d and 4 d, respectively. In the future, the frequency and duration of such heatwaves are projected to increase in the long-term period, where the frequency is expected to be approximately 12–39 d and 7–24 d, and the longest duration is as long as 30 d and 14 d, respectively. In the baseline period, the hazardous/lethal compound temperature–humidity heatwaves affected an area of approximately 74.8×104 and 22.3×104 km2 in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, exposing the populations of 170 million and 20 million people of the hazardous/lethal compound temperature–humidity heatwaves, respectively. The impact range and maximum exposed population in the 21st century were observed in the long-term period, accounting for approximately 83%–100% and 32%–98% of the study area, respectively. The exposed population was approximately 1.2–2.5 and 2.5–20.5 times higher than that during the base period in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, respectively. The population exposed to the lethal compound temperature–humidity heatwaves increased considerably by approximately 40 million–370 million. Spatially, the main areas affected by these heatwaves in the 21st century are Shanghai, northern Zhejiang, southern Jiangsu, southern Anhui, eastern Hunan, and eastern Jiangxi. Overall, forecasting, early warning, and risk prevention of lethal compound temperature–humidity heatwaves must be urgently improved.

     

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