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吴越, 王顺久, 张绿夷, 等. 2024. Ningaloo Niño/Niña对华西秋雨异常的影响[J]. 气候与环境研究, 29(2): 167−177. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2024.23073
引用本文: 吴越, 王顺久, 张绿夷, 等. 2024. Ningaloo Niño/Niña对华西秋雨异常的影响[J]. 气候与环境研究, 29(2): 167−177. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2024.23073
WU Yue, WANG Shunjiu, ZHANG Lüyi, et al. 2024. Influence of Ningaloo Niño/Niña Events on Autumn Rain Anomalies in West China [J]. Climatic and Environmental Research (in Chinese), 29 (2): 167−177. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2024.23073
Citation: WU Yue, WANG Shunjiu, ZHANG Lüyi, et al. 2024. Influence of Ningaloo Niño/Niña Events on Autumn Rain Anomalies in West China [J]. Climatic and Environmental Research (in Chinese), 29 (2): 167−177. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2024.23073

Ningaloo Niño/Niña对华西秋雨异常的影响

Influence of Ningaloo Niño/Niña Events on Autumn Rain Anomalies in West China

  • 摘要: 利用1979~2016年NOAA海表温度资料、NCEP/NCAR大气再分析资料以及CN05.1降水资料,首次研究了Ningaloo Niño/Niña与华西秋雨异常的联系,揭示了Ningaloo Niño/Niña与华西秋雨的响应关系。研究表明:1)在Ningaloo Niño/Niña年秋季,副热带东印度洋地区海温将发生明显变化,在扣除ENSO信号影响后,Ningaloo Niño/Niña会导致华西秋雨雨量的变化,在Ningaloo Niño年雨量增多而在Ningaloo Niña年雨量减少。2)Ningaloo Niño(Niña)年秋季,副热带东印度洋地区海温升高(降低),致使南北半球中低纬经向环流异常进而导致华西地区上升(下沉)气流增强,南海地区向华西地区的水汽辐合增强(减弱),与此同时,赤道附近的纬向环流异常与北半球低纬到中高纬的经向环流异常联系紧密,导致欧亚大陆中高纬地区环流经向度加大(减小),为华西秋雨的增加(减少)提供了有利条件。研究成果可为华西秋雨预测提供新的思路。

     

    Abstract: Based on monthly sea surface temperature (SST) data from 1979 to 2016 provided by NOAA alongside NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data and CN05.1 precipitation data, the relationship between Ningaloo Niño/Niña events and the autumn rainfall anomalies across West China was investigated. The results indicate obvious changes in SST in the East subtropical Indian Ocean during the autumn of Ningaloo Niño/Niña years. After deducting the influence of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a positive correlation emerges, linking Ningaloo Niño events with autumn rain in West China. During Ningaloo Niño (or Niña) years, sea temperatures around western Australia increase in autumn, resulting in enhanced abnormal meridional circulation that increases the updraft (or downdraft) in West China. This is accompanied by an enhanced (or weakened) convergence of water vapor from the South China Sea toward West China. The zonal circulation anomalies near the equator are closely related to the meridional circulation anomalies extending from low to mid-high latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere. Consequently, the longitudinal extent of circulation across the middle and high latitudes of Eurasia increases (or decreases), creating conducive conditions for increasing (or decreasing) autumn rain in West China and providing a new approach for forecasting this rainfall.

     

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