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黄荣浩, 潘登, 刘嘉文, 等. 2024. 珠三角城市群屋顶分布式光伏发电的综合潜力研究[J]. 气候与环境研究, 29(3): 317−328. DOI: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2024.23086
引用本文: 黄荣浩, 潘登, 刘嘉文, 等. 2024. 珠三角城市群屋顶分布式光伏发电的综合潜力研究[J]. 气候与环境研究, 29(3): 317−328. DOI: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2024.23086
HUANG Ronghao, PAN Deng, LIU Jiawen, et al. 2024. A Comprehensive Study on the Potential of Rooftop-Distributed Photovoltaics in the Pearl River Delta Urban Agglomeration [J]. Climatic and Environmental Research (in Chinese), 29 (3): 317−328. DOI: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2024.23086
Citation: HUANG Ronghao, PAN Deng, LIU Jiawen, et al. 2024. A Comprehensive Study on the Potential of Rooftop-Distributed Photovoltaics in the Pearl River Delta Urban Agglomeration [J]. Climatic and Environmental Research (in Chinese), 29 (3): 317−328. DOI: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2024.23086

珠三角城市群屋顶分布式光伏发电的综合潜力研究

A Comprehensive Study on the Potential of Rooftop-Distributed Photovoltaics in the Pearl River Delta Urban Agglomeration

  • 摘要: 屋顶光伏发电仅利用屋顶空间和太阳辐射,不额外占用土地资源,因此成为推动绿色能源转型的重要选择。珠江三角洲(珠三角)城市群是我国城市化进程最快的地区之一。本研究基于区域地理和当前技术条件提出 5°和20°两种安装角度、单晶硅和多晶硅两种光伏板材料,共计4种屋顶光伏安装方案,分析在珠三角城市群开展大面积屋顶光伏项目的技术、经济以及减排潜力。结果显示,珠三角地区的城市屋顶总面积为2493.255 km2,占珠三角土地面积的4.5%;珠三角地区的最大屋顶光伏发电潜力约为440.6×108~721.2×108 kW h,且每年能够减少47.83%~78.14%的广东省电力部门温室气体排放;通过净现值指标对屋顶光伏发电的经济收益进行评估,5°单晶硅的安装方案所带来净现值最高,达到了2151亿元,同时其初始投资也是4种安装模式中最小的;4种安装方案均在第四年可实现成本回收,表明在珠三角地区推行大面积屋顶光伏具有显著的潜力,未来屋顶光伏发电项目具有较强的投资吸引力。

     

    Abstract: Rooftop photovoltaic (RPV) systems utilize roof space and solar radiation without occupying additional land resources, making them an important choice for promoting the transition to green energy. Based on the regional geography and current technical conditions, we propose four RPV installation scenarios, including two installation angles (5° and 20°) and two photovoltaic panel materials (monocrystalline silicon and polycrystalline silicon), to analyze the technical, economic, and emission reduction potential of RPV projects in the Pearl River Delta (PRD) urban agglomeration, one of the fastest urbanizing regions in China. Our results show that the total urban roof area in the PRD region is 2493.255 km2, accounting for 4.5% of the PRD’s land area. The maximum RPV power generation potential in PRD cities ranges from approximately 44.06 to 72.12 billion kW h, which can reduce greenhouse gas emissions from the Guangdong power sector by 47.83% to 78.14% annually. By evaluating the economic benefits of RPV, the scenario with 5° monocrystalline silicon panels exhibits the highest net present value, reaching 215.1 billion Yuan, and its initial investment is the smallest among the four scenarios. All four scenarios can achieve cost recovery in the fourth year, indicating significant potential for promoting large-scale RPV in the PRD region and highlighting the strong investment attraction for future RPV projects.

     

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