Better CMIP6 Models in the Simulation of Cloud Radiative Fields Indicate Larger Cloud Feedback

Under the overarching context of global warming, the precise role of clouds—whether cloud radiative forcing (CRF) amplifies or attenuates warming—has long been a focal and critical area of scientific research. This study evaluates historical simulations from CMIP6 models by comparing their cloud radiative fields with observation from 2001 to 2014. A comprehensive evaluation system was applied based on biases against CERES satellite observations in spatial patterns and temporal variability. This study indicates that models with better performance in simulating historical temporal variability exhibit stronger positive cloud feedback (with a correlation coefficient of 0.55 between the model performance score and the magnitude of positive cloud feedback) and higher equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS).