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物理参数化方案联合扰动对集合预报质量的影响

Effects of Physical Parameterization Schemes Combined with Perturbations on Ensemble Prediction Quality

  • 摘要: 云微物理方案参数众多且参数间约束关系复杂,在集合预报中选择何参数、如何进行参数组合扰动一直没有定论,本文基于WRFv4.2模式,选择WSM6(WRF Single-Moment 6-Class Microphysics Scheme)方案8个参数对2020年一次梅雨锋强降水过程进行参数扰动集合预报试验,对比分析不同参数、不同扰动范围组合对预报的影响,尝试将云微物理方案和边界层方案的敏感参数进行联合扰动。结果表明:4个云微物理方案敏感参数的组合扰动在预报试验中表现最优,减小了暴雨概率预报的空报率,提升了湿度场、纬向风、低层温度场、对流层中层经向风的集合离散度;雨滴截断参数与云冰直径的有限最大值联合扰动后呈协同共振作用,能有效改进集合预报效果;而霰截断参数与霰密度、截断参数间的组合扰动显示,扰动能量并没有随扰动参数的增加而增强,参数间的拮抗作用会制约集合预报技巧的提升;MRF边界层方案三个参数的扰动对低层湿度场的集合预报技巧改善明显,且三个参数组合扰动比单个扰动集合预报技巧更高;同时将云微物理参数扰动方案和边界层参数扰动方案进行联合,效果最优。说明参数扰动时参数的选择、扰动的范围都会对集合预报的效果产生影响,呈协同关系的参数组合易取得较优的预报效果,存在拮抗作用的参数组合则呈现负技巧。考虑参数间依赖关系、扰动范围的多参数扰动更有利于集合预报效果的提升,为今后参数扰动中参数的选择提供了有价值的参考。

     

    Abstract: Many parameters are involved in cloud microphysics schemes, and their constraint relationships are complex. As a result, choosing parameters and designing parameter perturbation combinations for ensemble forecasting remains unclear. This study, based on the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) v4.2 model, selects eight parameters from the WRF single-moment 6-class microphysics scheme (WSM6) to perform ensemble prediction experiments for parameter perturbations during a heavy rainfall event associated with the Meiyu front in 2020. The impacts of different parameters and perturbation range combinations on model performance are systematically assessed. Additionally, joint perturbations of sensitive parameters in both the cloud microphysics scheme and the boundary layer scheme are analyzed. The findings show that combined perturbations of four sensitive microphysics parameters give the best results, reducing the false alarm ratio in torrential rainfall forecasts and enhancing ensemble spread for humidity, zonal wind, low-level temperature, and mid-tropospheric meridional wind. The combined perturbations of the raindrop size distribution truncation parameter and the maximum cloud ice diameter demonstrate a synergistic effect, improving forecast skill. Conversely, combined perturbations involving graupel-related parameters (including truncation parameters and density) do not increase perturbation energy with additional parameters; instead, antagonistic parameter interactions limit forecast improvements. Perturbing three parameters in the WRF boundary layer scheme (MRF PBL Scheme)significantly enhances ensemble prediction of low-level humidity. Furthermore, combined perturbations outperform single-parameter perturbations. Joint perturbations across the cloud microphysics and planetary boundary layer schemes deliver the best overall performance. Ultimately, both parameter choice and perturbation range strongly affect ensemble forecast accuracy. Synergistic parameter combinations boost forecast skill, while antagonistic ones reduce it. Multiparameter perturbations that consider parameter dependencies and perturbation ranges are more effective for improving ensemble predictions, offering valuable guidance for future parameter selection.

     

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