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2021年秋季我国北方极端降水的可能成因分析

Analysis of the Potential Causes of Extreme Precipitation in Northern China during the Autumn of 2021

  • 摘要: 近年来极端降水频繁发生,给居民生活、城市内涝等造成了严重的影响,因此极端降水的预报及前兆因子的分析十分重要。本文分析了2021年9~10月发生在我国北方地区极端降水的时空特征,揭示了影响极端降水的环流背景及因子。结果表明,此次极端降水累计降水量超过220 mm,为1961年以来最强的一次极端降水事件。我国秋季降水主要受厄尔尼诺与南方涛动(ENSO)影响,发展中的La Niña形成异常反气旋,增强了水汽输送。但ENSO的影响主要位于39°N以南,39°N以北地区主要与MJO(Madden Julian Oscillation)异常活动相关。MJO在3~5位相异常活跃,为历史气候态的2~3倍,异常增加的季节内尺度上升运动造成水汽辐合,形成了本次极端降水。统计分析也表明,MJO在第4位相活跃时北部区域极端降水的发生概率将增加60%以上,这为北方极端降水的预报提供了有效思路。

     

    Abstract: The increased extreme precipitation in recent years has significantly affected human life and caused urban flooding. Therefore, forecasting extreme precipitation and identifying its precursor factors are of great importance. In this study, we analyze the spatiotemporal characteristics of the extreme precipitation event that occurred in northern China during September–October 2021, and examine the associated circulation background and influencing factors. Results show that the accumulated extreme precipitation exceeds 220 mm, making this event the strongest autumn extreme precipitation since 1961. Autumn precipitation in China is mainly affected by the ENSO (El Niño–Southern Oscillation). During this period, a developing La Niña phase induced an anomalous anticyclone that enhanced water vapor transport. However, the influence of ENSO was mainly confined to regions south of 39°N, whereas extreme precipitation north of 39°N was primarily associated with the anomalous activity of the MJO (Madden–Julian Oscillation). The MJO was anomalously active in phases 3–5, with an intensity 2–3 times its climatological mean. This enhanced intraseasonal-scale upward motion promoted water vapor convergence, resulting in the occurrence of extreme precipitation. Statistical analyses further show that the probability of extreme precipitation in northern China increases by more than 60% when the MJO is active in phase 4. These findings provide valuable insights for improving the forecasting and early warning of extreme precipitation events in northern China.

     

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