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冬季东北冷涡多尺度特征及其季节内振荡对东北和华北地区极端低温的影响

Multiscale Features of the Boreal Winter Northeast Cold Vortex and the Influence of its Intraseasonal Oscillations on Extremely Low Temperatures in Northeast and North China

  • 摘要: 东北冷涡作为东亚中高纬大气环流的重要成员,对我国东北—华北地区气温和降水具有重要的影响。本文采用欧洲中期天气预报中心(ECMWF)提供的ERA5逐日再分析数据集,对1979~2020年(42年)冬季东北冷涡展开客观识别,探讨其生命期、强度、空间分布以及活动日数等气候特征,定义冷涡指数分析冷涡活动多尺度特征,并基于该指数使用奇异值分解(SVD)和回归分析讨论东北冷涡在季节内尺度对我国东北—华北地区(39°N~54°N,115°E~135°E)冬季温度的影响。结果显示,42年间冬季在识别区(35°N~60°N,115°E~145°E)内共出现266次东北冷涡活动过程,主要位于识别区的北部(45°N~60°N,115°E~145°E),平均生命期为4.3 d;冬季东北冷涡强度和冷涡指数均反映出1月和2月冷涡强度在前后21年发生转折,在2000年以前1(2)月冷涡强度较强(弱),2000年以后1(2)月冷涡强度较弱(强);冷涡活动存在明显的年际变化特征,冷涡指数的变化周期为2~3 a,季节内振荡周期则以10~40 d为主。时滞回归分析表明,在低频冷涡发展阶段,北半球中高纬度地区存在两支低频波列,至第0 d时,乌拉尔山地区至东北亚到日本以东地区上空存在一支纬向“+、−、+”的低频波列,而东亚高纬度地区与极地地区经向波列完成了类似北极涛动从正位相到负位相的转变,其上游乌拉尔山地区以及下游鄂霍次克海至日本以东太平洋地区形成低频双阻塞形势,使得低频冷涡在此能够长久维持,造成东北—华北地区持续的降温,且东北—华北地区低频低温的发生落后于低频东北冷涡3~5 d左右。

     

    Abstract: The NECV (Northeast cold vortex) is a key component of the East Asian mid- to high-latitude atmospheric circulation, significantly impacting temperature and precipitation in Northeast and North China. In this study, the ERA5 daily reanalysis dataset from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts was used to objectively identify the boreal winter NECV over 42 years (1979–2020) and to explore its basic climatology, including its life cycle, intensity, spatial distribution, and number of active days. Furthermore, an NECV index (NECVI) was defined to analyze the multiscale features of NECV activity. Subsequently, SVD (Singular Value Decomposition) and regression analyses were performed based on the NECVI to examine the intraseasonal influence of the NECV on winter temperatures in Northeast and North China (39°N–54°N, 115°E–135°E). Results indicated that the study period (42 years) witnessed 266 boreal winter NECV events within the study area (35°N–60°N, 115°E–145°E). The NECV was mainly located in the northern region (45°N–60°N, 115°E–145°E), with an average life cycle of 4.3 d. The intensity of the boreal winter NECV and NECVI indicated reversed NECV strengths in January and February of the initial and final 21 years of the study. Specifically, this reversal was observed when comparing the two halves of the study period: before 2000 (1979–2000), the NECV intensity was stronger in January and weaker in February, whereas after 2000 (2000–2020), the intensity was weaker in January and stronger in February. Furthermore, the NECV activity exhibited significant interannual variability (with a change period of 2–3 years for the NECV), whereas the boreal winter NECV activity exhibited an intraseasonal oscillation period of 10–40 d. Additionally, time-lag regression revealed the dynamical mechanism underlying the development of low-frequency NECV: during the low-frequency NECV development phase, two low-frequency wave trains were observed in the mid-to-high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. At day 0 (peak development), a zonal low-frequency wave train exhibiting a “+, −, +” configuration was identified in the upper atmosphere, extending from the Ural Mountains across Northeast Asia to the areas east of Japan. Simultaneously, a transition pattern resembling a shift in the Arctic Oscillation from a positive to a negative phase was identified between the high-latitude regions of East Asia and the polar regions. This pattern established a low-frequency double-blocking structure, with blocking features over the Ural Mountains (upstream) and over the Sea of Okhotsk/western North Pacific (downstream). This stable configuration enabled the low-frequency NECV to persist, resulting in sustained cooling in Northeast and North China. Notably, the occurrence of extremely low temperatures in the Northeast and North China regions, which occurred at low frequency, lagged the low-frequency NECV by about 3–5 d.

     

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