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FY-3D卫星MWHS II资料直接同化对北京7·31暴雨预报的影响

Influence of Direct Assimilation of FY-3D Satellite MWHS II Data Rainstorm Forecast in Beijing on 31 July 2023

  • 摘要: 本研究以2023年北京7·31暴雨为例,深入探讨了FY-3D卫星MWHS II微波湿度计资料直接同化对极端降水预报的影响。通过设置同化前后的对比试验,并结合WRF数值预报模式,对同化效果进行了多尺度、多要素的系统分析。研究发现:MWHS II资料同化明显改善了极端降水的模拟效果,成功捕捉到了超过550 mm的降水极值中心,并更准确地模拟了降水的空间分布。同化对多尺度系统的影响:同化显著改善了大尺度环境场,为极端降水事件创造了有利条件,使得关键区域的温度梯度增强,水汽分布得到优化(尤其是东部海域的水汽通道),气压场的南北梯度也同时增加,共同维持了稳定的利于降水的大尺度背景。同化对对流系统的影响:北京区域垂直涡度结构被优化,中高层负涡度和低层正涡度的增强促进了上升运动;大气不稳定度增加(低层相对湿度增大、中层减小,位温垂直梯度加大),为强对流的触发和维持提供了有利条件。同化对微物理过程的改善:中高层雪和霰粒子形成增多,低层云水向雨水的转化加速,提高了整体降水效率。这些影响在模拟的前36 h内尤为明显,凸显了同化在降水初期和发展阶段的关键作用。

     

    Abstract: In this study, the authors examine the impact of direct assimilation of FY-3D satellite MWHS II microwave humidity sounder data on extreme rainfall prediction, using the heavy rainstorm in Beijing on 31 July 2023, as a case study. Comparative experiments were conducted before and after data assimilation, and the effects across multiple scales and variables were analyzed using the WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting) numerical prediction model. The results show that MWHS II data assimilation considerably improved the extreme rainfall simulation. It successfully captured the maximum rainfall center, which exceeded 550 mm, and provided a more accurate simulation of rainfall distribution. This study also highlights the effect of assimilation on large-scale systems, thereby improving large-scale environmental fields by creating favorable conditions for extreme rainfall events. Key improvements include a strengthened temperature gradient in critical areas, optimized water vapor distribution, especially over the eastern sea, and an increased north–south pressure gradient. Together, these factors maintain a stable, large-scale background that supports precipitation. The impact on convective systems was more noticeable on a smaller scale. The vertical vorticity structure was optimized over the Beijing area, with enhanced negative vorticity in the mid-to-upper atmosphere and increased positive vorticity in lower levels, promoting upward motion. The atmosphere became more unstable, with increased relative humidity in the lower levels, decreased humidity in the mid-levels, and a steeper vertical temperature gradient. These factors contribute to strong convection triggering and maintenance. In addition, the microphysical processes improved. More snow and graupel particles formed in the mid-to-upper layers, and the conversion of cloud water to rainwater accelerated in lower levels, enhancing the overall precipitation efficiency. These effects were most prominent during the first 36 h of the simulation, emphasizing the critical role of data assimilation during the early and developing stages of precipitation.

     

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