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华北地区一次积层混合云过程飞机播撒碘化银增雨的数值模拟研究

Numerical Simulation of Aircraft Silver Iodide Seeding for Precipitation Enhancement during a Mixed Convective Stratiform Cloud Process in North China

  • 摘要: 积层混合云由层状云和嵌入其中的对流云组成,具有较强的被催化潜力,是人工增雨的主要目标云系。由于华北地区普遍存在的农业干旱和增加储水量等需求,针对该地区降水云系开展人工增雨研究显得尤为重要。本文采用耦合了AgI播撒参数化方案的WRF模式,对2021年6月16日出现在山西北部的一次积层混合云降水过程进行了播撒AgI催化数值模拟试验,并将模拟结果与卫星和机载云物理观测数据进行了对比。在云顶温度和液态水含量吻合较好的基础上,按照实际作业中的飞机播撒轨迹和播撒剂量模拟了此次催化降水过程。对模拟结果进行分析发现:催化作业使得降水增强,局部地区累计降水增量可达15~20 mm,区域平均增雨率为9.6%;AgI的核化过程以凝华核化为主,其次是凝结冻结核化,浸润冻结核化最弱。播撒AgI直接导致了云中冰晶浓度增多,水汽消耗使得前期雪和霰的产生和增长过程受到抑制,随着冰晶向雪转化和雪碰并云滴形成霰的过程增强,雪、霰粒子的总量增多,更多的雪、霰降落至0°C层以下,融化形成大雨滴,从而增强了云雨碰并过程,最终导致地面降水增加。对播撒影响微物理过程进行量化分析发现,雪和霰融化过程较自然云增强了27.26%和20.53%,其是播撒影响降水增加的主要微物理过程。这些结果揭示并量化了播撒影响降水机制和云微物理结构,有助于深入认识人工催化混合云增雨过程的物理机制,对北方地区人工影响冷云天气业务具有一定参考意义。

     

    Abstract: Stratiform clouds with embedded convection (SEC), with convective clouds embedded within stratiform clouds, exhibit significant catalytic potential, making them the main targets for artificial rain enhancement. Widespread agricultural drought and the pressing need for water conservation in North China necessitate research on artificial precipitation enhancement in the region’s cloud systems. This study coupled the weather research and forecasting model with a silver iodide (AgI) seeding parameterization scheme to simulate aircraft AgI seeding during a SEC precipitation event in northern Shanxi on 16 June 2021. The simulation results were validated against satellite and airborne cloud physics observations. Given the good agreement between the cloud top temperature and liquid water content, the catalytic precipitation process was simulated using the actual seeding trajectory and dosage. The simulation results indicated that the seeding operation significantly enhanced precipitation, with local cumulative increases of 15–20 mm and a regional average enhancement rate of 9.6%. AgI nucleation was primarily dominated by deposition nucleation, followed by condensation–freezing nucleation, with immersion–freezing nucleation being the weakest mechanism. Direct AgI seeding increased the ice crystal concentration of the cloud, and the resulting water vapor consumption inhibited snow and graupel production and growth in the early stage. The subsequent conversion of ice crystals to snow, followed by the collision of snow with cloud droplets to form graupel, increased the total snow and graupel concentrations. More snow and graupel particles fell below the 0°C level, melting into large raindrops. This enhanced the cloud–rain collision process, ultimately increasing surface precipitation. Quantitative analysis of the seeding-catalyzed microphysical processes showed that AgI seeding enhanced snow and graupel melting by 27.26% and 20.53%, respectively, compared with natural clouds, confirming that these intensified melting rates were the main microphysical processes affected by seeding, which influenced precipitation increase. These results reveal and quantify the mechanisms of seeding-influenced precipitation and cloud microphysical structure, enhancing the understanding of the physical mechanisms of artificial catalytic mixed cloud precipitation enhancement and providing valuable references for artificial influences on cold cloud weather operations in Northern China.

     

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