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基于位涡环流理论的CAS FGOALS-f3-L对东亚夏季风年际变率第二模态模拟能力评估

Evaluation of the Simulation Capability of CAS FGOALS-f3-L for the Second Mode of Interannual Variability of the East Asian Summer Monsoon Based on the Theory of Potential Vorticity Circulation

  • 摘要: 东亚夏季风(EASM)年际变率的精确模拟对于目前气候系统模式来说仍然是一个挑战。在本研究中,基于最近提出的位涡环流(PVC)理论,我们发现观测中EASM的多变量经验正交函数(MV-EOF)第二模态与跨赤道PVC(CEPVC)和穿越对流层顶PVC(CUPVC)MV-EOF第一模态之间具有密切联系。结果表明,FGOALS-f3-L未能再现EASM高度场及降水场的经向偶极子形态,这与CUPVC的模拟偏差密切相关。进一步分析表明,正确模拟与CUPVC变化相关的水汽通量的辐合和辐散是模式能够准确模拟EASM第二模态的关键的物理过程。结果还表明,改进与南亚高压相关的对CUPVC模拟的改进可以提高EASM年际变率的模拟技巧。

     

    Abstract: The accurate simulation of East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) interannual variability remains a challenge for state-of-the-art climate models. Using the recently proposed potential vorticity circulation (PVC) theory, we found that the second mode of the multivariate empirical orthogonal function for the observed EASM exhibits a close relationship with the first modes of cross-equatorial PVC (CEPVC) and the cross-tropopause PVC (CUPVC). We evaluated the simulation capability of the second mode of the EASM in July via the Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System Model, Finite-volume version 3, Low resolution (FGOALS-f3-L) historical experiment and observational analysis and analyzed the potential causes of model bias. Results indicated that the model fails to reproduce the EASM meridional dipole pattern of geopotential height and precipitation, a deficiency closely related to CUPVC simulation bias. Further analysis suggested that the accurate simulation of water vapor flux convergence and divergence, which are related to CUPVC variations, is critical for accurately capturing the second EASM mode. Results also indicated that improving the simulation accuracy of CUPVC related to the South Asian High phenomenon can enhance the simulation capability of the CAS FGOALS-f3-L model for EASM interannual variability.

     

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