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基于稠密自动站观测的中国雷暴大风时空分布和典型环流型特征

Characteristics of Spatiotemporal Distribution and Typical Circulation Patterns of Thunderstorm High-Winds from Dense Automatic Weather Stations over China

  • 摘要: 准确认识和理解雷暴大风的分布特征及其发生发展环流型与环境条件的共性特征,是提升对其预报预警能力的重要前提。本文利用2015~2021年国家站和稠密自动站雷暴大风观测资料,在进行严格质量控制的基础上,分析了中国雷暴大风的时空分布特征,并基于500 hPa位势高度场进行经验正交分解(EOF)及K均值聚类,对高频次区域雷暴大风的主导环流形势进行了客观分型,进而研究了相应的环境条件特征。结果表明:(1)我国存在华北和东北、江南大部和华南、新疆西北部和青藏高原四个雷暴大风高频区域(分别简称为高频区1~4),其中雷暴大风最早出现在高频区2,6月雷暴大风的发生频次最高。(2)利于高频区1和3内雷暴大风的典型环流型各有4类,利于高频区2和4的各有5类。高频区1各环流型有明显的季节性特征,850 hPa均有明显的风场涡旋和切变线,500 hPa一槽一脊型占比最高,达30.4%。高频区2内雷暴大风受南支槽、东风波、东亚大槽以及热带辐合带等多种环流配置的影响,其中强盛西北太平洋副热带高压边缘的低层辐合带型占比最多,为27%。高频区3内产生雷暴大风的有利环流型为西风槽中的波动,其中52.4%为西风槽型。高频区4内南亚高压型占比最高,达52.7%,其余部分多为高空槽型。(3)各区域雷暴大风典型环流型对应的热动力条件差异显著。高频区2内多为明显的湿环境雷暴大风,高频区3内多为明显的干环境雷暴大风,而高频区1和4则以干环境雷暴大风为主,兼有部分湿环境雷暴大风。高频区1中的冷涡型对应低对流有效位能(CAPE)、强垂直风切变的干环境,高频区2的副高外围型和高频区4的南亚高压型则对应高CAPE、弱垂直风切变的湿环境。研究结论为认识和预报不同地区的雷暴大风提供了环流型和环境参量方面的参考。

     

    Abstract: A clear understanding of the temporal–spatial distribution, circulation patterns, and environmental conditions of thunderstorm high winds (THWs) is essential for improving the accuracy of forecasting and warnings. Using THWs observations from national and automatic weather stations during 2015–2021, this study applied strict quality-control procedures to analyze the temporal and spatial characteristics and circulation patterns of THWs across China. In addition, the dominant weather regimes of THWs were objectively classified through the Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis of the 500 hPa geopotential height field, followed by K-means clustering, and the associated environmental conditions were further investigated. Results show that (1) North China and Northeast China, the Jiangnan region and South China region, the northwest part of Xinjiang, and the plateau region are the four THWs high-frequency regions (hereafter called Regions 1–4, respectively). THWs occur earliest in Region 2. The highest frequency of THWs was in June. (2) Four circulation patterns are identified in Regions 1 and 3, while five patterns are identified in Regions 2 and 4. Region 1 is typically influenced by cold vortices on the upper levels and significant vortices and cold–warm confrontations on the lower levels, with the one-trough-and-one-ridge circulation being the most frequent (30.4%). Region 2 is affected by various circulation configurations, such as the Southern trough, eastern wave, East Asian trough, and intertropical convergence zone. The strong West Pacific subtropical high-alignment low-level convergence zone occurs most frequently (27%). The typical circulation patterns of THWs in Region 3 are characterized by west wind trough fluctuations (proportion: 52.4%). The South Asian High accounts for the highest proportion (52.7%) in Region 4. The upper trough is another major circulation that produces THWs in the plateau region. (3) There are significant differences in the thermal dynamic conditions for generating THWs across different regions. Region 3 is dominated by dry THWs, whereas Region 2 is dominated by wet THWs. Regions 1 and 4 are dominated by dry THWs. In Region 1, dry THWs closely related to cold vortices feature low convective available potential energy (CAPE) and strong wind shear conditions. In contrast, wet THWs related to the peripheral subtropical high in Region 2 and the South Asian high in Region 4 exhibit high CAPE and weak wind shear conditions. These findings provide a solid reference for understanding and forecasting THWs in different regions in terms of circulations and environmental conditions.

     

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