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江淮地区夏季极端降水分型及其环流异常配置分析

Analysis of Summer Extreme Precipitation Types and Associated Circulation Anomalies in the Jianghuai Region

  • 摘要: 本文基于中国地面气象观测站降水数据、NCEP/NCAR再分析资料,采用百分位和K-means聚类方法以及大气动力—热力诊断技术,分析了不同类型极端降水事件的环流配置与演变特征。研究表明,根据降水中心落区的差异,江淮极端降水可划分为四种类型,中部型、北部型、南部型与东部型,前三种发生的集中时段与雨带季节性北跳有关,而第四种发生时段较为分散。四种类型极端降水发生期间,降水主要落区位于偏强的南亚高压与西风急流之间的高空辐散区下方,大气垂直速度增大,对流层上中层温度水平梯度加大,中高纬环流经向度较大,副高强度加强,导致来自海洋地区的水汽输送增强。前三种类型与第四种降水在东亚—太平洋遥相关型(EAP)、低空急流及水汽输送存在差异。前三种类型对应EAP较显著,存在低空急流,水汽输送主要来自西太平洋和南海区域,对流层上层气温梯度呈北冷南暖的偶极型异常结构;东部型对应的EAP不典型,无明显低空急流,东亚沿海偏东水汽输送明显,对流层上层只存在单极暖中心。对比分析显示低频强降水环流配置与南部型相似,但南亚高压、高空西风急流、副高、低空急流、水汽输送等相关环流因子强度较弱,地理位置也有偏差。四种极端降水热力—动力条件的低频演变差异表现为:中部型降水发生在副高北抬东退、EAP波列下传期间;北部型发生时近地面温度暖中心由长江—黄河之间南移至江南,江淮上空温度上冷下暖;南部型发生在副高南移西进过程中,300 hPa温度由北冷南暖转为北暖南冷,整层高度场以正值为主;东部型发生在副高北抬东退至南移西进过程中,对流旺盛区由低纬加强向中纬移动,200 hPa及以下为温度暖区。进一步分析表明,副高和热力作用的变化对极端降水的低频预测具有更好的指示意义。

     

    Abstract: Based on gauged precipitation data from the China Meteorological Administration and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data, this study investigates the circulation configuration and evolutionary characteristics of different types of extreme precipitation events using percentile analysis and K-means clustering, combined with atmospheric dynamic–thermodynamic diagnostics techniques. The results show that extreme precipitation in the Jianghuai region can be categorized into four types according to the location of the precipitation center: Central, Northern, Southern, and Eastern. The first three types mainly occur during the seasonal northward shift of the rain belt, whereas the fourth type is more scattered. During these events, the primary precipitation zones are located beneath the upper-tropospheric divergence region, positioned between the strong South Asian high and the westerly jet stream. These events are characterized by enhanced vertical velocity, intensified temperature gradients in the upper and middle troposphere, strengthened meridional circulation in the mid–high latitudes, an intensified subtropical high, and increased water vapor transport from oceanic regions. The first three precipitation types are different from the fourth in terms of East Asia–Pacific (EAP) teleconnection pattern, low-level jet, and water vapor transport. In the first three types, a typical EAP pattern and a pronounced low-level jet are observed, with water vapor mainly originating from the western Pacific and South China Sea. The upper-tropospheric temperature gradient exhibits a dipole anomaly, featuring colder temperatures to the north and warmer temperatures to the south. In contrast, for the Eastern-type events, a typical EAP persists, but no evident low-level jet develops. Water vapor transport occurs mainly as easterly flow along the East Asian coast, and only a unipolar warm center appears in the upper troposphere. The circulation pattern associated with low-frequency heavy precipitation resembles that of the Southern type, although the intensity and position of the South Asian pressure system, high-altitude westerly jet, subtropical high, low-level jet, and water vapor transport differ. The low-frequency evolution of thermodynamic conditions also varies among the four types. Central-type events occur during the northeastward movement of the subtropical high and the downward propagation of the EAP wave train. In Northern-type cases, the warm center of the near-surface temperature shifts southward from the Yangtze–Yellow River region to the area south of the Yangtze River, and the Jianghuai region exhibits a “cold above–warm below” thermal structure. Southern-type events occur during the southwestward movement of the subtropical high, with the 300 hPa temperature gradient reversing from “cold north–warm south” to “warm north–cold south,” and positive height values dominating the entire troposphere. Eastern-type events occur during the northeastward–southwestward oscillation of the subtropical high, accompanied by strengthening convective activity from low to middle latitudes, and almost entirely warm areas at 200 hPa and below. Further analysis demonstrates that variations in the subtropical high and associated thermal effects serve as key indicators of low-frequency prediction of extreme precipitation events in the Jianghuai region.

     

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