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7月份赤道太平洋平流层风场异常的复EOF诊断及其与平流层准两年振荡的关系

Complex Empirical Orthogonal Function Diagnosis of Stratospheric Wind Anomalies over the Equatorial Pacific in July and the Relationship with Quasi Biennial Oscillation

  • 摘要: 本文利用NCAR/NCEP提供的7月份10、20、30、50、70和100 hPa上73年的月平均风场资料,对赤道太平洋的平流层风场异常做了复EOF(经验正交函数)诊断,并讨论了诊断结果与平流层准两年振荡(Quasi Biennial Oscillation,简称QBO)的关系,得到了以下主要结论该诊断前三模态的方差贡献依次为60.9%、24.0%、4.4%,前两模态累积方差贡献达84.9%,基本能概括QBO的性质特点。由第一、二模态的空间场可见,在50 hPa及之上明显的风场异常均以纬向风为主,两者的区别是前者的风向上下保持一致,而后者出现上下相反的现象。两者的时间系数分别有2.25、2.47年的年际变化周期,前者周期与QBO的平均周期相同,后者也落在QBO的周期1.75~2.5年间,两者的年代际变化都不明显。在风场异常的强度变化上,两者都有8年左右的年际变化周期,而两者风场强度的年代际变化也都不明显。两者的风场异常典型值在50 hPa以下都减小得很快,至100 hPa该值均已很小,这些都与QBO的情况相当一致;两者该典型值的最大处分别位于20、10 hPa上,前者也与QBO的最强位置相差不远。两者风场QBO强度变化的最明显时段分别从1995、1990年始而都至2020年终,另外后者的风场QBO强度还有一个线性增长趋势,2010年后该趋势则有所加大,这些可能与全球明显增暖有关。第一、二模态的物理性质分别对应为正、斜压Kelvin波;这说明Kelvin波对QBO的形成非常重要,是产生QBO的重要因素之一,其中正压Kelvin波对QBO的贡献更为突出。

     

    Abstract: In this study, complex empirical orthogonal function (CEOF) analysis was applied to 73 years of stratospheric wind field data for July from the National Center for Atmospheric Research and National Centers for Environmental Prediction reanalysis project, covering pressure levels of 10, 20, 30, 50, 70, and 100 hPa over the equatorial Pacific. The relationship between the diagnostic results and the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) was examined. The results show that the first three modes accounted for 60.9%, 24.0%, and 4.4% of the total variance, respectively, with the first two modes cumulatively explaining 84.9%. These two modes effectively captured the principal features of the QBO. Above the 50 hPa pressure level, the wind anomalies in the first and second modes were dominated by partial latitudinal winds, however, the first mode exhibited vertically consistent wind directions, while the second showed opposite wind directions. The time coefficients of the two modes exhibited interannual variations of 2.25 and 2.47 years, respectively. The former aligned with the average QBO period, while the latter fell within the typical QBO range of 1.75–2.5 years. The interdecadal variations of both modes were not significant. In terms of the intensity variation of wind anomalies, both modes exhibited interannual variations of about 8 years, and the decadal variations in both were not significant. The typical values of wind anomalies in both modes rapidly decreased below 50 hPa and were very small at 100hPa, consistent with QBO characteristics. The maximum anomalies in the two modes were located at 20 and 10 hPa, respectively, with the former closely matching the peak altitude of the QBO. The most obvious QBO intensity variations of the two modes initiated from 1995 and 1990, respectively, and continued until the end of 2020. In addition, a linear intensification trend was observed in the strength of the wind field in the latter, which had accelerated since 2010. This trend might be related to the remarkable global warming. The physical properties of the first and second modes corresponded to barotropic and baroclinic Kelvin waves, respectively. This indicated that Kelvin waves play a key role in QBO formation, with the barotropic component contributing more prominently.

     

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