Abstract: Based on ECMWF Reanalysis v5 dataset (ERA5) and simulation results using 18 models from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), this study analyzes historical and four projected greenhouse gas (GHG) emission scenarios. Compound heat–drought events are identified by the intersection of heat events (defined by a relative threshold method) and drought (defined by the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index). Our analysis focuses on projecting summer compound heat–drought events across the Belt and Road region, specifically analyzing occurrence days, maximum duration, and frequency. We construct a severity index to quantify projected variations in compound-event severity. The relative contributions of heat, drought, and coupled heat–drought to the compound events are also revealed by multiple linear regression analysis. Results show that the CMIP6 models effectively capture the spatiotemporal distribution of compound heat–drought events across the Belt and Road region. Our projections indicate comprehensive intensification of compound events in this region. By the end of the 21st century, relative to 1995–2014, occurrence days, duration, and event frequency are projected to increase by 6–32 days, 12–19 days, and 1–2 times, respectively, with this increasing trend positively correlating with the GHG concentration. The increase in event frequency is relatively modest, likely due to longer event durations. Additionally, event severity increases significantly, with an increasing trend of approximately 0.04–0.11 per decade in the SSP5-8.5 scenario. These projected variations in compound heat–drought events are primarily attributed to heat events, which account for a relative contribution of about 50%–90%. Except for Central and Eastern Europe, the relative contribution of heat events in other regions increases with time while remaining insensitive to variations in GHG concentrations. Central Asia, West Asia, and the Commonwealth of Independent States regions will shift from a coupling–dominated to a heat–dominated regime. Overall, these findings deepen the understanding of the dynamics of compound heat–drought events under global warming in the Belt and Road region and provide scientific support for implementing the Belt and Road Initiative.