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近50年福建省短历时极端暴雨时空分布特征分析

Spatiotemporal Distribution of Short-term Extreme Rainstorms in Fujian Province over the Past 50 Years

  • 摘要: 为探究福建省短历时极端暴雨时空分布特征,采用1974~2023年福建省121个气象站日间和夜间的1 h、3 h和6 h年最大降水表征极端暴雨,利用Mann-Kendall检验法探究短历时极端暴雨时间变化规律和地区线性矩法开展短历时极端暴雨空间分布规律分析。分析结果表明:福建省可划分为4个水文气象一致区,各一致区内的年最大降水序列大多以广义极值(Generalized Extreme Value,GEV)分布拟合效果为最优,并且线性矩法相较于常规矩法具有更高的精确性。福建省短历时暴雨极值在1970年代至2000年代呈现减小趋势。进入2000年后增长态势显著,高海拔地区的暴雨极值由夜间向日间发生结构性调整,其余地区昼夜均有增长;高山站的极端暴雨范围逐年扩张,位于南坡的站点在夜间遭遇极端暴雨的可能性增加,位于北坡的站点遭受极端暴雨的历时逐年缩短。福建省短历时极端暴雨量级总体由东部沿海向西部内陆递减,大值区在沿海、闽南、闽西山区均有分布。闽北沿海在夜间出现短历时极端暴雨的可能性大于日间。闽中、闽南沿海1 h和3 h的短历时极端暴雨在量级上夜间小于日间。闽西内陆日间发生短历时极端暴雨的可能性更高且降水持续时间较长。闽中山脉一线的短历时极端暴雨在量级和概率上始终较低。上述时空分布特征受海温异常、低层风场、锋生—能量场耦合及水汽输送协同调控:西太平洋暖异常增强西南风水汽输送;日间暴雨由海风辐合及地形抬升主导,夜间暴雨依赖陆风—急流耦合;锋生过程与假相当位温高能舌空间耦合触发强对流,地形增幅显著提升夜间降水量级;风场日变化驱动水汽输送昼夜分异,海陆风环流、热带系统等协同调控水汽输送条件。

     

    Abstract: To investigate the spatiotemporal distribution of short-term extreme rainstorms in Fujian Province, the 1-h, 3-h and 6-h annual maximum precipitation data from 121 meteorological stations spanning 50 years (1974–2023) were analyzed, with a specific focus on diurnal (daytime vs. nighttime) variations. The spatiotemporal distributions of short-term extreme rainstorms were analyzed using the Mann–Kendall test and the regional L-moments method. Results show that Fujian Province comprises four hydrometeorologically homogeneous regions, and that most of the annual maximum precipitation series were optimally fitted with the generalized extreme value distribution, and that the L-moments method demonstrates higher accuracy compared with the normal conventional method of moments. The short-term extreme rainstorm values in Fujian Province decreased between the 1970s and 2000s, followed by a significant growth trend. These extremes in high-altitude areas shifted from nighttime to daytime, while other regions experienced increased extremes during daytime and nighttime. Meanwhile, the range of extreme rainstorms at high-altitude stations expanded annually. Stations on the southern slopes exhibited an increased probability of nighttime extremes, and those on the northern slopes experienced shorter extreme rainstorm duration over time. Influenced by complex factors involving topography and geomorphology, changes in weather systems, etc., the short-term extreme rainstorm volumes in Fujian Province generally followed a decreasing trend from the east coast to the western inland regions. High-value areas were distributed along the coast, in southern Fujian Province, and across the mountainous areas of western Fujian Province. The probability of short-term extreme rainstorms along the coast of northern Fujian Province was higher at night than during the day. The 1-h and 3-h short-term extreme rainstorm volumes along the central and southern coasts were lower at night. The interior of western Fujian Province exhibited a higher probability of daytime extremes and longer precipitation durations. The short-term extreme rainstorms along the central Fujian mountains were consistently lower in volume and probability. These patterns were governed by sea surface temperature anomalies (where warming in the western Pacific enhances southwestern moisture transport). The observed distributions were shaped by diurnal wind regimes (dominated by sea-breeze convergence with orographic lift during the day, versus the coupling of land breezes with low-level jets at night). They were further influenced by synergistic triggering from the spatial coupling between frontogenesis processes and high-equivalent potential temperature energy tongues—where terrain forcing critically amplifies nocturnal rainstorms. Diurnal moisture divergence–convergence phases, driven by wind variations, were further regulated by sea-breeze circulation and tropical systems.

     

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