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基于深度残差网络模型的持续性极端强降水延伸期概率预报

Deep Residual Network for Probabilistic Forecast of the Extended Range Persistent Extreme Precipitation

  • 摘要: 基于ECMWF、CMA、UKMO和NCEP四个模式的次季节至季节(S2S)数据集以及1997年至2022年4月至9月的地面观测降水数据,改进深度残差网络(ResNet)模型,用于持续性极端降水(PEP)的延伸期概率预报。改进后的ResNet模型的确定性和概率预报结果与中国东部地区的其他4种算法(单一模式集合平均、多模式集合平均、主成分回归和贝叶斯多模式集合平均)进行了对比。结果表明,改进的ResNet模型在概率预报方面优于其他算法。ResNet模型的性能提升得益于空间相关系数的提高,这又源于ResNet模型能够深度挖掘ECMWF S2S数据中PEP特征及ResNet网络结构的优化。因此,改进后的ResNet模型的Brier技巧评分(BSS)正技巧可延伸至30天,这对于中国东部地区持续性极端降水的延伸期概率预报具有重要意义。

     

    Abstract: Based on the Subseasonal~to~Seasonal (S2S) datasets from four models (ECMWF, CMA, UKMO, and NCEP) and ground~observed precipitation data from April to September between 1997 and 2022, an improved Deep Residual Network (ResNet) model was developed for extended~range probabilistic forecasting of Persistent Extreme Precipitation (PEP). The deterministic and probabilistic forecasts of the improved ResNet model were compared with five other methods—single~model ensemble (EC), multi~model ensemble (MME), principal component regression (PCR), and Bayesian model averaging (BMA)—over eastern China. The results demonstrated that the improved ResNet model outperformed other methods in probabilistic forecasting. The enhanced performance of the ResNet model is attributed to the improvement in spatial correlation coefficients, which stems from its ability to deeply extract PEP features from the ECMWF S2S data and the optimization of the ResNet network structure. As a result, the improved ResNet model achieves a positive Brier Skill Score (BSS) for forecast lead times of up to 30 days, highlighting its significant potential for extended~range probabilistic forecasting of PEP in eastern China.

     

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