高级检索

基于深度残差网络模型的持续性极端强降水延伸期概率预报

Enhanced Extended-Range Probabilistic Forecasting of Persistent Extreme Precipitation using a Deep Residual Network

  • 摘要: 基于欧洲中期天气预报中心(ECMWF)、中国气象局(CMA)、英国气象局(UKMO)和美国国家环境预报中心(NCEP)四个模式的次季节至季节(S2S)数据集以及1997~2022年4~9月的地面观测降水数据,本研究定制化设计的深度残差网络(ResNet)模型,开展持续性极端降水(PEP)的延伸期概率预报。将定制化ResNet模型的确定性预报和概率预报结果与其他四种算法(单一模式集合平均、多模式集合平均、主成分回归和贝叶斯多模式集合平均)进行了对比。结果表明,定制化ResNet模型在概率预报方面优于其他算法。ResNet模型的性能提升得益于空间相关系数的提高,这源于其能够深度挖掘ECMWF S2S数据中PEP特征及ResNet网络结构的优化。因此,定制化ResNet模型的Brier技巧评分(BSS)正技巧可延伸至30天,这对于中国东部地区持续性极端降水的延伸期概率预报具有重要意义。

     

    Abstract: Based on subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) datasets obtained from four models (ECMWF, CMA, UKMO, and NCEP) and ground-observed precipitation data for April–September 1997–2022, an improved deep residual network (ResNet) model was developed for the extended-range probabilistic forecasting of persistent extreme precipitation (PEP). The deterministic and probabilistic forecasts of the improved ResNet model were compared with those of five other methods (single-model ensemble, multi-model ensemble, principal component regression, and Bayesian model averaging). Results demonstrated that the improved ResNet model outperformed other methods in probabilistic forecasting. The enhanced performance of the ResNet model is attributed to the improvement in spatial correlation coefficients, which stems from its ability to deeply extract PEP features from the ECMWF S2S data and the optimization of the ResNet structure. As a result, the improved ResNet model achieves a positive Brier skill score for forecast lead times up to 30 d, highlighting its considerable potential for extended-range probabilistic forecasting of PEP in eastern China.

     

/

返回文章
返回