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气候变化背景下中国沿海地区海平面上升叠加台风和风暴潮的灾害风险及应对策略

Sea Level Rise, Typhoons, and Storm Surges Under Climate Change: Disaster Risks and Adaptation Strategies for China

  • 摘要: 全球气候变暖背景下,海平面上升与台风和风暴潮的协同作用加剧了沿海地区复合洪水灾害风险,严重威胁沿海地区经济社会可持续发展。近年来,我国沿海频发的高海平面—天文大潮—风暴潮多灾种耦合事件导致大范围海水倒灌,暴露出现有防灾体系的不足。为此,本文重点回顾和总结了气候变化背景下海平面上升、台风活动及风暴潮的时空演变规律,探讨了其对我国沿海地区的复合致灾机制与灾害风险特征,并提出了分级应对策略。分析表明:近几十年来,气候变暖导致全球及区域海平面加速上升、台风强度增强且路径向高纬度偏移。1980年代以来,我国沿海2米以上风暴潮发生频率倍增,渤海湾、浙闽沿海及珠三角已成为高风险区,复合洪水灾害呈现“海—陆—气”多维耦合特征,海平面上升、台风、风暴潮、强降水和极端径流等多因子非线性叠加效应显著。到21世纪末,当前(2000年代)沿海地区百年一遇洪水重现期可能缩短至数年一遇,其中北方沿海(如渤海湾)的洪水灾害风险增幅尤为显著。基于此,本文提出分级协同应对策略:(1)加强多致灾因子耦合机理研究,发展多尺度、高精度预测预警技术;(2)建立高分辨率动态风险评估体系,制定区域差异化防控方案;(3)形成“生态岸堤—海绵城市—智能排水”综合防洪系统。分析还显示,早期预警体系建设和防洪基础设施升级具有显著边际效益,建议将动态风险评估纳入沿海城市国土空间规划体系,并加强滨海湿地等生态屏障(如红树林、盐沼)的保护与修复。本文梳理的气候变化背景下沿海复合洪水灾害演变规律IO和综合应对框架,可为我国沿海地区洪水灾害风险管理提供科学参考。

     

    Abstract: Under global climate change, the combined effects of sea-level rise (SLR), typhoons, and storm surges have significantly exacerbated coastal flood risks in China, threatening socioeconomic sustainability. Severe seawater intrusion events—triggered by high SLR, astronomical tides, and storm surges along China’s coast—have revealed critical gaps in existing coastal defense systems. This study systematically reviews the recent evolution of SLR, typhoons, storm surges, and compound flood disaster risks in China’s coastal areas and proposes corresponding adaptation strategies. Key findings reveal that over the past few decades, climate warming has accelerated the global and regional SLR rates, intensified typhoon, and caused a poleward shift in storm tracks. The frequency of storm surges exceeding 2 m along China’s coast has doubled since the 1980s, particularly in Bohai Bay, the Zhejiang–Fujian coasts, and the Pearl River Delta. Compound floods exhibit three-dimensional interactions among the atmosphere, ocean, and land systems, with nonlinear amplification effects observed when SLR coincides with storm surges and pluvial flooding. By the end of this century, events currently classified as 100-year floods in the late 20th century may recur every few years or even more frequently. Northern coastal regions, such as Bohai Bay, are expected to face greater flood risks than before. The proposed response strategies are as follows. (1) Deepen mechanistic studies on multihazard coupling to enhance disaster prediction and early warning capabilities; (2) Develop a high-resolution dynamic risk assessment system and establish region-specific prevention and control plans; (3) Build a comprehensive flood defense system integrating ecological embankments, sponge cities, and intelligent drainage networks. The analysis also highlights the significant cost-effectiveness of implementing early warning systems and upgrading flood defenses. It is recommended to integrate dynamic risk assessment into the urban spatial planning framework of coastal cities while strengthening the protection and restoration of ecological barriers like coastal wetlands (e.g., mangroves and salt marshes). This study systematically examines the development patterns of coastal disasters under climate change and the associated response framework, providing a scientific basis for disaster risk management in China’s coastal regions.

     

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