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基于京津冀典型寒潮事件的CMA-GFS模式预报性能评估

Evaluation for Prediction Performance of CMA-GFS Model Based on Typical Cold Wave Events in Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei Region

  • 摘要: 基于CMA-GFS模式预报、全球探空和地面加密自动站观测以及ERA5再分析等多种资料,筛选2000~2024年37例寒潮事件并统计分析了京津冀地区寒潮降温和风速分布特征。针对其中11例寒潮事件,开展了CMA-GFS模式位势高度、温度、2 m气温和10 m风场的提前0~72 h不同起报时间的空间和时间偏差多维检验,细致评估了多要素预报性能,进而讨论了地面温度模式预报偏差的可能成因。研究表明:(1)寒潮事件中平均最大降温幅度大于6°C的区域集中在北京北部、天津北部和南部、河北东南部地区,北京北部山区的降温幅度显著高于平原地区;最大降温幅度大于16°C区域主要在山区,其余大部分站点最大降温幅度集中在8°C~12°C;2分钟平均风速和阵风极大值分布类似,平原非沿海地区风速整体较小,山区及沿海地区风速整体较大。(2)CMA-GFS模式能较好地预报寒潮事件中对流层中上层大气环流形势,但对温度的预报存在一定偏差,大部分事件温度预报偏差并未随起报时间临近而减小,个别事件表现出最临近起报时次预报偏差最大。地面最高气温的预报优于最低气温。63.6%寒潮事件最高温度预报偏低,偏低的区域集中在北京、天津和河北中部,初始场的平均值误差(ME)、均方根误差(RMSE)、站点正确率和偏差离散度均优于其他起报时次;大部分寒潮事件最低气温预报偏高,偏高区域集中在河北北部和西部、北京北部高海拔地区,提前36 h起报的效果最优。京津冀平原地区10 m风速预报误差大部分站点在−2~2 m s−1之间,少数站点预报误差大于2 m s−1,提前36 h预报的效果最优,初始场的误差最大。(3)CMA-GFS模式地面温度预报偏差除了与中低层温度、湿度预报有关外,可能还与10 m风速的过度预报有关。

     

    Abstract: Based on various datasets, such as CMA-GFS (Global Forecast System of China Meteorological Administration), global sounding observations, ground-encrypted automatic station observations, and ERA5 reanalysis results, 37 cold wave events from 2000 to 2024 were screened, and the distribution characteristics of cold wave cooling amplitude and wind speed in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei (BTH) region were statistically analyzed. Next, a multidimensional test was conducted to investigate the spatial and temporal deviations of CMA-GFS forecasts for high-altitude variables, the highest and lowest ground temperatures at 2-m height, and the wind field at 10-m height. These parameters were tested across different forecast lead times (0–72 h). The associated multifactor forecasting performance was carefully evaluated, and possible causes of the forecasting bias of the ground-temperature model were discussed. Results reveal the following: (1) regions with an average maximum cooling amplitude more than 6°C during cold wave events are concentrated in the northern and southern parts of Beijing, Tianjin, and southeastern Hebei. The cooling amplitude in Beijing’s northern mountainous areas is significantly higher than that in the plain areas. Additionally, areas with a maximum cooling amplitude more than 16°C are mainly located in mountainous regions, whereas the maximum cooling amplitude at most other stations is concentrated at 8°C–12°C. The distributions of 2 min average wind speed and maximum gust values are similar, with overall lower and higher wind speeds in noncoastal plain areas and mountainous and coastal areas, respectively. (2) CMA-GFS can effectively predict the atmospheric-circulation situation in the upper troposphere during cold wave events. However, its temperature predictions exhibit certain deviations. For most events, deviations do not decrease with shorter forecast lead times, and some events show the largest prediction deviation at the shortest lead time. Notably, forecasts of the highest ground temperature are better than those of the lowest. Further, the highest ground temperature is underestimated in 63.6% of cold wave events, with areas with low forecast values concentrated in Beijing, Tianjin, and central Hebei. The mean error, root mean square error, station accuracy, and deviation dispersion reported at 0-h forecast lead time are better than those at other lead times. For most cold wave events, the lowest ground temperature is overestimated, particularly in high-altitude areas in northern and western of Hebei and Northern Beijing. The best performance is realized at 36-h forecast lead time, and the maximum error is achieved at 0-h forecast lead time. The 10-m wind speed prediction error is within ±2 m s−1 for most stations in the BTH region, and a few stations are more than 2 m s−1. (3) The deviations in temperature at 10-m height forecast by the CMA-GFS may be related to the inaccuracies in forecasting temperature and humidity in the middle-lower atmospheric layers and the overestimation of the wind speed at 10-m height.

     

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