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京津冀夏季降水与ENSO关系的年代际变化

Interdecadal Variation in the Relationship between Spring ENSO and Summer Precipitation in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei Region

  • 摘要: ENSO(El Niño-Southern Oscillation)是全球海气系统最显著的年际信号,也是影响京津冀夏季降水的重要因素之一。本文基于1961~2023年春季海表温度与京津冀夏季降水、大气环流等数据,分析了春季ENSO与京津冀夏季降水关系的年代际变化及其可能成因。结果表明,对京津冀夏季降水年际异常产生显著影响的春季ENSO关键区在1990年代末发生年代际变化,由前期东太平洋到后期转为中太平洋,尽管转变前后春季ENSO关键区海表面温度(Sea Surface Temperature,SST)对京津冀夏季降水异常的影响均表现为较强的负相关,然而其成因却存在显著差异。在春季ENSO关键区的海温出现异常时,北太平洋、印度洋和大西洋的夏季海温会表现出不同的特征,进而通过不同区域海温异常的协同作用引起热带和中高纬环流异常。当春季ENSO关键区表现为暖海温异常时,副热带西北太平洋存在明显的反气旋环流,在发生年代际转变后此反气旋环流相对偏强,但仍未把水汽输送到京津冀地区;京津冀上空受气旋性环流控制,前期的气旋性环流与北太平洋海温异常相关,后期则是由北大西洋的海温异常激发出欧亚大陆上空的纬向波列所引起,偏北风异常控制京津冀地区导致降水异常偏少。

     

    Abstract: The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) represents the most prominent interannual signal within the global ocean–atmosphere system and stands as one of the crucial factors influencing the interannual variability of summer precipitation in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei (BTH) region. Based on data such as spring SST (Sea Surface Temperature), summer precipitation in the BTH region, and atmospheric circulation from 1961 to 2023, this study analyzes the interdecadal variation in the relationship between spring ENSO and summer precipitation in the BTH region as well as its possible causes. Results show that the key spring ENSO region significantly impacting the interannual summer-precipitation anomalies in the BTH region underwent an interdecadal shift in the late 1990s, migrating from the eastern Pacific in the earlier period to the central Pacific in the later period. Although SST anomalies (SSTAs) in the key spring ENSO region exhibit a strong negative correlation with the summer precipitation anomalies in the BTH region before and after the shift, the underlying mechanisms differ significantly. When SSTAs exist in the key spring ENSO region, the summer SSTAs in the North Pacific, Indian Ocean, and Atlantic Ocean show different characteristics, which in turn cause circulation anomalies in the tropics and mid-high latitudes through the synergistic effect of SSTAs in different regions. When the key spring ENSO region exhibits warm SSTAs, a distinct anticyclonic circulation is observed in the subtropical northwestern Pacific. After the interdecadal shift, this anticyclonic circulation strengthens, but it still fails to transport water vapor to the BTH region. The BTH region is controlled by a cyclonic circulation. In the earlier period, this cyclonic circulation is associated with SSTAs in the North Pacific, and in the later period, it is caused by the zonal wave train over the Eurasian continent, excited by SSTAs in the North Atlantic. The control of anomalous northerly winds over the BTH region reduces precipitation.

     

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