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2011年后印度和东亚夏季风交界西移成因研究

Mechanisms Driving the Westward Shift of the Indian–East Asian Summer Monsoon Interface after 2010

  • 摘要: 本文利用1979~2024年NCEP-DOE II再分析资料,以物理意义清晰且计算简单的湿静力能为切入点,分析了2011年以来印度夏季风和东亚夏季风交界趋势性西移的成因。分析结果表明多年平均的夏季湿静力能在(15°~35°N,90°~110°E)的范围内呈现鞍型场分布,用其随经度变化等零值线定义的印度夏季风和东亚夏季风交界的多年平均位置在100°E附近。印度夏季风和东亚夏季风交界位置在1979~2010年期间的演变趋势不明显,但2011以后其演变呈现出显著西移的趋势。印度夏季风和东亚夏季风的相对强弱是造成印度夏季风和东亚夏季风交界东西移动的主要原因。印度夏季风与东亚夏季风交界东西移动具有明显的“趋强性”。2011~2024年期间印度夏季风具有增强的趋势,但东亚夏季风强度减弱趋势较弱。两支夏季风的这种跷跷板协同变化直接造成了2011~2024年期间印度和东亚夏季风交界显著西移。太平洋年代际涛动是导致2011~2024年期间印度和东亚夏季风交界显著西移的主要外部热力强迫因子。

     

    Abstract: Based on moisture static energy (MSE), which has a clear physical meaning and is easy to calculate, this study analyzed the causes of the westward shift of the interface between the Indian summer monsoon and the East Asian summer monsoon (IIE) after 2010 using the National Centers for Environmental Prediction–Department of Energy Reanalysis II. The results show that the vertical distribution of the summer long-term mean MSE around (15°–35°N, 90°–110°E) exhibits a saddle-shaped pattern. The IIE, defined as the location where the longitudinal derivative of MSE equals zero, is situated near 100°E. Its evolutionary trend was not pronounced during 1979–2010 but shifted significantly westward after 2010. The primary cause of this westward shift is the intensity contrast between the Indian summer monsoon and the East Asian summer monsoon. The IIE typically moves toward the relatively stronger monsoon system. Between 2011 and 2024, the intensity of the Indian summer monsoon tended to increase, whereas that of the East Asian summer monsoon slightly decreased. This seesaw covariation between the two monsoon systems directly resulted in the westward shift of the IIE after 2010. Furthermore, the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation is identified as one of the most important external thermal forcing factors driving this westward shift.

     

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