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厄尔尼诺与中国东南部夏季极端湿热事件关系的年代际变化

Interdecadal Variation of the Relationship between El Niño and Summer Extreme Humid-Heat Events in Southeastern China

  • 摘要: 极端湿热事件直接影响人类健康和社会经济。我国夏季极端湿热事件主要发生在东南地区。本文的研究结果表明,1961~1993年期间前冬厄尔尼诺与南方涛动(ENSO)与中国东南部夏季极端湿热日数(EHHD)的关系较弱,而1994~2020年期间ENSO与EHHD呈现显著的正相关关系,其中厄尔尼诺事件引起EHHD增多是相关关系增强的主要原因。后一时期当前冬厄尔尼诺事件发生时,夏季西北太平洋异常反气旋(WNPAC)偏西偏强,其引起的下沉运动、向下短波辐射以及水汽输送异常有利于EHHD增多。进一步分析表明,后一时期厄尔尼诺次年夏季赤道中东太平洋冷异常以及海洋性大陆暖异常较前一时期都更为显著。海洋性大陆附近的暖海温异常通过增强局地对流,产生的异常上升运动在高层辐散。一方面,其在东西方向上与赤道中东太平洋冷海温异常共同抑制了赤道中西部太平洋上空对流活动以及降水异常,通过激发Gill响应从而增强WNPAC。另一方面,海洋性大陆上空的异常上升运动有利于加强南北向Hadley环流进而增强WNPAC。此外,后一时期厄尔尼诺次年夏季中高纬地区存在一条环球波列。这样的环球波列可能可以通过引起东北亚地区上升运动,经由南北向环流从而加强WNPAC。相比之下,前一时期夏季海温异常和中高纬环球波列异常都较弱,对WNPAC和EHHD的影响不明显。

     

    Abstract: Extreme humid-heat events directly affect human health and socioeconomic development. In China, such events mainly occur in the southeast region in summer. This study revealed a weak relationship between early winter El Niño and Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and summer extreme humid-heat days (EHHDs) in southeastern China during 1961–1993. A significant positive correlation was observed between ENSO and EHHDs during 1994–2020. The increase in EHHDs caused by El Niño events was the main reason for the strong correlation. In the latter period, when El Niño events occurred in the early winter, the western North Pacific anomalous anticyclone (WNPAC) was westerly and stronger in summer. It caused a sinking motion, downward shortwave radiation, and water vapor transport anomalies, which were conducive to increasing the number of EHHDs. Further analysis indicated that during the latter period, cold sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the equatorial central–eastern Pacific and warm SST anomalies over the Maritime Continent in the summer following an El Niño event were more pronounced compared to those in the former period. The warm SST anomalies near the Maritime Continent enhanced local convection, leading to anomalous upward motion that diverged in the upper troposphere. On the one hand, this upward motion and the cold SST anomalies in the equatorial central–eastern Pacific in the zonal direction jointly suppressed convective activity and precipitation anomalies over the equatorial central–western Pacific. This suppression further excited a Gill-type response, reinforcing the WNPAC. On the other hand, the anomalous upward motion over the Maritime Continent strengthened the meridional Hadley circulation and contributed to intensifying the WNPAC. Additionally, during the latter period, a circumglobal teleconnection wave train was observed in the mid-high latitudes in the summer following an El Niño event. This wave train may have enhanced the WNPAC by inducing upward motion over Northeast Asia and modulating the meridional circulation. In contrast, during the former period, the summer SST anomalies and the mid-high-latitude circumglobal teleconnection were weaker, resulting in negligible impacts on the WNPAC and EHHDs.

     

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