Abstract: Climate change has exacerbated uncertainties in the evolution of bioclimatic environments, thereby elevating the risks of ecological disasters across regions. A comprehensive understanding of forest fire risk, its correlation with climate change, and the driving factors underlying this risk evolution is crucial for addressing potential forest fire risks in Northeast China under a warming climate. Based on ERA5 climate reanalysis data and relevant bioclimatic or forest fire risk products from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, this study analyzed the evolution of forest fire risk in Northeast China from 2006 to 2023. The results indicate that during this period, the region experienced a temperature increase of 1.0℃ and a precipitation increase of 47 mm, indicating a “warming–wetting” climatic trend. Concurrently, the forest fire ignition and spread indices in these forests increased by 9.4% and 16.1%, respectively, compared with the corresponding mean values in Northeast China in 2006–2023. Notably, in the Changbai Mountain forest, the growth rates of these two indices were 4.5 and 2.5 times the regional average, while the daily fire severity and danger indices increased by 5.6% and 10.2%, respectively (compared with decreases of 41.1% and 1.3% for Northeast China’s forests as a whole). Despite the overall wetting trend in the region, a significant increase in forest fire risks was observed in Northeast China’s forests, with the peak risks occurring in spring (accompanied by pronounced increases from winter to spring). This phenomenon is attributed to reduced precipitation, rising temperatures, and enhanced wind speeds. These factors collectively induce a dry bioclimatic environment and an increase in compound hot-dry events. Although the forest fire risk index in Northeast China remains relatively low, more attention should be paid to addressing the rising risks of winter-to-spring fires in forest edge areas. Additionally, under warming scenarios, the Changbai Mountain area requires focused investigations on fire risk evolution and the implementation of targeted measures to prevent such risks.