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ISO信号对2024年8~9月中国西南地区高温干旱复合灾害事件的影响分析

Impact Analysis of Intraseasonal Oscillation Signals on the Compound High Temperature–Drought Event in Southwestern China Between August and September 2024

  • 摘要: 2024年8月中旬至9月中旬,中国西南地区出现了一次典型的高温干旱复合灾害事件,对当地经济和人民生活造成了较大影响。西南地区的高温干旱复合灾害事件与来自不同地区的季节内振荡(Intraseasonal Oscillations,简称ISO)有关,然而常规统计分析不能区分不同ISO对高温干旱复合灾害的特定作用,本文通过大气环流特征诊断并进行不同ISO信号驱动的WRF侧边界强迫数值模拟试验,分析发现:本次过程由对流层高层的中纬度西风带波列引起的ISO信号导致西南地区区域平均升温1.331°C,主要影响西南地区北部,该ISO信号对整个区域高温干旱贡献率为62.8%;对流层中层的遥相关波列引起的ISO信号造成西南地区区域平均升温0.768°C,主要影响区域集中在四川东部及重庆大部地区,此ISO信号对整个区域高温干旱事件贡献率达37.2%。此次西南地区高温干旱复合灾害发展主要受来自西北边界的中纬度西风带波列的影响,使得南亚高压显著发展并控制西南地区造成位势高度正异常;同时,受来自西北太平洋副热带高压西伸北抬影响下的暖平流作用影响,伴随对流层的位势高度场正异常,引起了区域性温度升高及土壤湿润度的下降。本研究有助于更好地了解西南地区高温干旱复合灾害的成因,并为提高该区域次季节预测水平提供基础。

     

    Abstract: Southwestern China experienced a typical compound heat–drought event between mid-August and mid-September 2024, which significantly impacted the local economy and livelihoods. In this region, such compound events are related to intraseasonal oscillations (ISOs) originating from different areas. However, conventional statistical methods fail to distinguish the specific contributions of various ISOs to these extreme conditions. Using atmospheric-circulation diagnostics and numerical simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting model with varying-ISO-signal-driven boundary forcings, this study reveals the following: the ISO signal induced by a mid-latitude westerly wave train in the upper troposphere increased the regional average temperature by 1.331°C in Southwestern China, primarily affecting the northern part of the region. This ISO signal accounted for 62.8% of the overall compound heat–drought event. The ISO signal associated with a middle-tropospheric teleconnection wave train increased regional average temperatures by 0.768°C. This impact is mainly concentrated in the eastern Sichuan Basin and most of Chongqing, accounting for 37.2% of the event. The development of this compound event was predominantly influenced by a mid-latitude westerly wave train from the northwestern boundary. This promoted the significant expansion of the South Asian High over Southwestern China, resulting in strong positive geopotential height anomalies. Simultaneously, warm advection due to the westward extension and northward shift of the Western North Pacific Subtropical High, coupled with positive tropospheric geopotential height anomalies, contributed to regional temperature increases and decreased soil moisture. Overall, this study enhances the understanding of the mechanisms driving compound heat–drought events in Southwestern China, providing a foundation for improving subseasonal-prediction capabilities.

     

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