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平流层弱极涡异常信号下传与非下传事件中的行星波活动特征

Characteristics of planetary wave activity of downward-propagating and non-downward-propagating stratospheric weak polar vortex events

  • 摘要: 平流层弱极涡事件伴随的环流异常信号向下传播,可显著影响对流层中高纬度地区大尺度环流进而调控天气气候变化,明晰平流层弱极涡事件异常信号下传特性的影响因子和关键过程对于平流层信号在对流层延伸期预报中的应用至关重要。本文基于50°N~70°N平均纬向平均纬向风异常的垂直演变结构特征将1952-2022年冬季(11-3月)间共60次平流层弱极涡事件分为下传型和非下传型,下传至500hPa的事件(下传型),约占总数的53.3%,43.3%甚至可下传至1000hPa。平流层极涡特征在两类事件间的差异主要表现为:与非下传型相比,下传型事件伴随的绕极西风异常的峰值强度更强、持续时间更长,但平流层极涡的形态和位置差异不显著。行星波活动的诊断分析结果表明,下传型弱极涡事件前期向上和向极Eliassen-Palm(E-P)通量异常往往强于非下传型,这与下传型前期对流层上层中高纬弱西风条件、进而导致波传播环境更有利于行星波能量上传有关,是平流层异常的强度和持续时间均大于非下传型的动力原因;而在弱极涡事件后期,伴随下传型事件的向下和向极E-P通量异常往往强于非下传型,这与平流层低层至对流层中层波传播环境更有利于行星1-2波发生反射(尤其1波)以及极地急流减弱的同时伴随对流层副热带急流加强,将更多对流层行星波限制于中高纬度地区有关,平流层向对流层的异常波反射以及对流层有利于行星波发展的急流条件解释了该类事件的后期下传特征。

     

    Abstract: The downward propagation of circulation anomaly signals associated with stratospheric weak polar vortex events can significantly affect the large-scale circulation in the mid-high latitudes of the troposphere, thereby modulating weather and climate variability. Understanding the influencing factors and key processes of the downward propagation characteristics of these anomalous signals is crucial for the application of stratospheric signals in extended-range forecasting in the troposphere. Based on the vertical evolution characteristics of the zonal-mean zonal wind anomalies averaged over 50°N-70°N, a total of 60 winter (November-March) stratospheric weak polar vortex events during 1952-2022 were classified into downward-propagating and non-downward-propagating events. Events that propagated down to 500 hPa (downward-propagating type) accounted for approximately 53.3% of the total, with 43.3% even propagating down to 1000 hPa. The differences in stratospheric polar vortex characteristics between the two types of events mainly manifested as follows: compared with non-downward-propagating events, downward-propagating events were accompanied by stronger peak intensities and longer durations of circumpolar westerly anomalies, while the differences in the morphology and position of the stratospheric polar vortex were not significant. Diagnostic analyses of planetary wave activity showed that the upward and poleward Eliassen-Palm (E-P) flux anomalies in the early stage of downward-propagating weak polar vortex events were generally stronger than those in non-downward-propagating events. This was related to the weak westerly conditions in the mid-high latitudes of the upper troposphere in the early stage of downward-propagating events, which led to wave propagation environments more conducive to the upward propagation of planetary wave energy, and was the dynamic reason why the intensity and duration of stratospheric anomalies in downward-propagating events exceeded those in non-downward-propagating events. In the late stage of weak polar vortex events, the downward and poleward E-P flux anomalies associated with downward-propagating events were generally stronger than those in non-downward-propagating events. This was related to wave propagation environments from the lower stratosphere to the middle troposphere being more conducive to the reflection of planetary waves 1-2 (especially wave 1), as well as the weakening of the polar jet stream accompanied by the strengthening of the tropospheric subtropical jet stream, which restricted more tropospheric planetary waves to mid-high latitudes. Anomalous wave reflection from the stratosphere to the troposphere and the jet stream conditions in the troposphere that are conducive to planetary wave development explain the late-stage downward propagation characteristics of such events.

     

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